The following notes & chart outline the entry criteria, price targets, suggested stop & beta-adjusted position size for a swing trade in NFLX, Netflix Inc.
With today being a slow day I have update the official short trade ideas, with the following trades to be moved to the Completed Trades archives as they have recently exceeded their suggested stops. NFLX (Netflix Inc) hit the suggested stop for a 5.6% loss on Dec 28th but is on watch for another short entry as the negative divergences continue to build. Looking at the 10-year weekly chart, NFLX appears poised as one of the more attractive long-term shorting opps in 2018 & quite possibly beyond as the stock has started to hug the primary uptrend line with the momentum [...]
NFLX (Netflix Inc.) offers an objective short entry on this impulsive breakdown below the uptrend line following the divergent high. An alternative entry or add-on to a partial position taken here would come on a break below the 176.44 support OR following a 3-4% bounce off the first tag of that level. NFLX daily Dec 4th Price targets are T1 at 174.10 & T2 at 147.90 with the possibility of additional targets to be added, depending on how the charts of NFLX & the broad market develop going forward. The suggested stop is any move back above 192.60 with [...]
Most of the recent "post gap" rally on NFLX has already been faded. I believe a partial (down to the 167.50 area) or full (164 area) backfill of the gap is likely. As of now the stock is backtesting the upper channel trendline which could act as support but bearish if taken out. Not an official trade idea, at least not at this time. Watching to see how Netflix acts here as well as whether or not the AAPL induced gap in the $NDX today is built upon or faded. NFLX daily August 2nd
NFLX (Netflix Inc.) is soaring in after-hours trading following their quarterly earnings release. When I look at the weekly chart of NFLX as well as the price & volume action along various technical indicators, I see some almost uncanny similarities between NFLX today and AAPL when it put in a major top back on April 28th, 2015. That top in AAPL was followed by a vicious bear market that wiped out over 1/3 of the value of that over-loved & over-owned stock over the next 13 months. Just as with NFLX today, that pop & top in Apple didn't come following [...]
Wash, Rinse, Repeat. After the previous short trade on NFLX hit the final target, the stock experienced a typical reaction off that level followed by one more thrust lower while going on to put in a divergent low on the 60-minute time frame & recently breaking above this recent falling wedge pattern. With the stock now at resistance & close to backtesting the primary uptrend line on the daily time frame, NFLX appears to offer another objective short entry at this time. As such, NFLX (NFLX Inc.) will be added as an Active Short Trade here on this counter-trend bounce & [...]
NFLX (Netflix Inc.) has hit T2, the final official target, for a quick (4 session) gain of 10.5%. Consider booking profits or at least lowering stops if you plan to hold out for additional gains. The 147.70 level is a key support level, both uptrend line & horizontal price support, which would trigger a more powerful, longer-term sell signal if taken out with conviction. Daily & weekly charts follow below the 60-minute charts that this trade was primary based on: