RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-18-26

Here is the weekly recap of the topics, securities covered, and swing trade ideas posted on rightsideofthechart.com between July 11, 2026, and July 18, 2026:

1. Weekly Market Overview & Sectors Covered

The analysis from this week highlights an environment marked by aggressive internal sector rotation and a potential transition from a pure “stockpicker’s market” into an elevated risk phase for broad-based market corrections.

• Nasdaq 100 Futures (/NQ) & ETF (QQQ): Stalled out in a tight, two-month-long sideways consolidation. Technical analysis notes heavy, long-standing negative divergences on daily and weekly timeframes. A bearish PPO crossover forming on the weekly chart historically hints at a potential 13% to 26% broad market correction.

• PHLX Semiconductor Index / iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Struck heavily by institutional unwinding and capital outflows. The sector already triggered a weekly bearish PPO crossover, resulting in a swift 24% decline from recent highs & hitting T1 (first price target) on the daily chart mid-week & printing a solid close below it on Friday, thereby increasing the odds that the next price target(s) will be hit in the coming days/weeks.

• Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF): Highlighted as the critical sector holding up the broader equity market. Large negative divergences are visible on daily and weekly charts alongside a bearish rising wedge on the 60-minute timeframe. A sector sell signal is anticipated upon a decisive breakdown out of the bearish rising wedge pattern that was highlighted on the 60-minute chart.

• CBOE Market Volatility Index ($VIX): Exhibiting a bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence. Historically, when financials roll over to meet broader market breakdowns, a 50%+ volatility spike has been the standard macro response.

• Gold, Silver & Mining Equities (GDX, GLD, SLV): Gold (GLD) continues to test major multi-month price support (the final price target for the recent short trade off the all-time highs in gold) following recent short-covering pullbacks. Near-to-intermediate timeframes exhibit positive (bullish) divergences, setting up constructive scaling-in long setups or swing trades for the precious metals & miners.

• Grains & Soft Agriculture (TILL, /ZS, /ZW, /ZC, SOYB, WEAT, CORN): The continuous macro-bullish thesis remains fully intact across physical agricultural commodities (soybeans, wheat, corn, sugar) as defensive, uncorrelated, inflation-resistant asset allocations.

2. Individual Securities Analyzed

Financials & Payment Processors

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): In a bullish trend, albeit with a bearish technical posture; watching for a definitive sell signal if price breaks below its key primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average confluence (the $206–$210 range).

• Visa Inc. (V) & Mastercard Inc. (MA): Both credit networks are exhibiting clean 60-minute bearish rising wedges paired with negative divergences right against their recent all-time highs.

• Bank of America Corp. (BAC): Testing major primary support at $52.63, which perfectly intersects its 200-day moving average and bull market trendline. A solid break below that support would trigger a sell signal & objective short entry, particularly if the majority of the other large banks and XLF also trigger sell signals around that time.

• Morgan Stanley (MS): Already broke beneath its primary uptrend line and completed a back-test from below (now working as overhead resistance).

• Goldman Sachs Group ($GS): Pointed out for short potential as it tests a steep, overextended uptrend line with substantial negative divergence.

• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): Pullback trajectory targets the $83.00 handle, tracking down toward structural support and its rising 200-day moving average.

• American Express Co. (AXP): Carving out a bearish rising wedge pattern with intermediate-to-long-term targets pointing to an eventual 30% drop from recent peaks.

• Citigroup Inc. (C): “Walking the line” on a minor short-term uptrend; a clean breach lower would confirm a sector-wide financial flush.

Mega-Cap Tech & Semiconductors

• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): Bearish near-term trend (lower lows & lower highs) following a divergent high with a long-term bullish trend & intermediate-term sideways trend; watching price action with a confluence of price & 200-day moving average support around the $190 level, with the next sell signal to come on a solid break below it.

• Apple Inc. (AAPL): Bearish setup utilizing a distinct rising wedge and momentum divergence targeting a 17% decline back to its 200-day simple moving average.

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Testing multi-month dual support right at its primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average.

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Stuck in a technical “no man’s land” floating between its immediate price support floor and its deeper 200-day moving average.

• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Trapped by a failed breakout above its previous all-time highs; technical breakdown pending a near-term trendline crack.

• Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Failed breakout pattern displaying sharp negative divergence; eyeing a correction down to its key 200-day moving average.

• Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Trading directly under a long-term, multi-month structural resistance line off its historical highs.

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Experiencing momentum loss inside a large symmetrical triangle; keeping a tight eye on the April 2024 trendline anchor, as a solid break and/or daily close below would trigger a sell signal & objective short entry, most likely exerting pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

• Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Marked as a high-probability short swing candidate; a break of immediate support opens up a potential 50% macro drawdown.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): High intermediate downside risk targeting a primary support zone and moving average confluence down ~40% off its highs.

• ASML Holding NV (ASML): Flagged as an objective short play on a clean trendline breakdown and subsequent back-test from below.

• Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Sitting on immediate trendline support; technicals warn of severe institutional “unwinding” potential ahead.

• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO): Bearish swing trade setup targeting an eventual 30% correction down to the $101.80 price support level.

• Lam Research Corp. (LRCX): Bearish structure targeting a deep pullback to its underlying 200-day moving average confluence support.

• Intel Corp. (INTC): As predicted back on June 18th (click to view that post with summary notes on INTC), this key semiconductor stock went on to trigger a sell signal on a break below the uptrend line off its key March 30th pivot low, also going on to make the predicted failed breakout/bull trap above the top of its 2-month sideways trading range after putting in a marginal new & divergent high, with a swift drop back down to the initial price target of the bottom of that range at 99.59, constituting a swift 29% drop from that divergent high. INTC went on to trigger the next sell signal on Thursday with a solid break & close below the 99.59 target/support, with downside follow-through on Friday to close the week solidly below the trading range, thereby increasing the odds that the next price target around 80.40 will be hit in the coming days/weeks.

Crypto-Adjacent, Commodities, & Consumer Staples

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): Highly linked component of broad equity and cryptocurrency risk. The stock broke down below an essential multi-month support line at $102.19 on June 24th, shifting macro technical dynamics lower, with multiple attempts to recover that former support, now resistance, level since then, failing, with MSTR rejected. Deep downside targets remain active, with a risk of an eventual margin-driven liquidation model unfolding. However, with positive divergences still in place at the recent lows on both MSTR & Bitcoin, we need to see the recent lows in both taken out & even better, if the positive divergences are also taken out, in order to sharply increase the odds that my next downside price target(s) on MSTR & Bitcoin will be hit.

• CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): Carving out a bearish rising wedge pattern; a breakdown beneath the lower trendline will trigger a high-conviction short trade.

• Analog Devices (ADI) & Seagate Technology (STX): Both technology names are rolling over off clearly defined divergent highs near their peaks.

• Western Digital (WDC): Sitting precariously on a near-term uptrend line; a decisive daily close below acts as an active sell signal.

• Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): Consumer staples short thesis building around “subscription fatigue”; looking for a decisive break beneath $907 support.

• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Stood out as a technical rejection; turned lower directly off its 200-day moving average despite positive divergence.

• Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Bearish pre-earnings profile mapping out a deep macro-structural downside target down near the $46.00 handle.

• Mondelez International (MDLZ): Retesting its primary daily horizontal support line; maintaining a strictly neutral stance for now.

• Walmart Inc. (WMT): Sluggish technical profile after breaking below its primary uptrend line; currently backtesting its 200-day moving average from below.

• Oracle Corp (ORCL): Long-term setup offering an objective buy zone as it tests a major secular uptrend line stretching back to 2020.

• Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) & Health Care Sector (XLV): XLV displayed a bearish island reversal candle off a failed triple-top breakout. Eli Lilly is pulling back off a distinct divergent high, signaling that its multi-month momentum run is likely near its end.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Pulling back on negative divergence to retest its previous macro breakout level down at $220.44.

3. Active Swing Trade Setups Initiated This Week

The following setups were posted as objective new trade entries or tactical bounce candidates:

• IBM (International Business Machines Corp) — Active Long (Tactical Bounce):

  • Setup: Initiated as a reflexive “catch-a-falling-knife” long bounce entry following a quick 26% drop into major horizontal support.

  • Entry Zone: Long near support around $215.18.

  • Stop-Loss: Daily close below $208.82 (~3% risk).

  • Price Target: First profit target (T1) is set just below $234.78 support-turned-resistance (~9% gain), offering an attractive 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

• ERIE (Erie Indemnity Co.) — Active Long (Breakout Backtest):

  • Setup: Initiated on July 14th as an objective long entry on a technical backtest of a broken price channel and horizontal support following a fresh breakout.

  • Entry Zone: Long at support around $234.60.

  • Stop-Loss: Suggested stop was a daily close below $224.90. (Note: See Completed Trades below for milestone update).

• Tactical Mean-Reversion Long Bounce Candidates:

  • T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS): Long bounce candidate targeting a tactical 5% to 10% move up to overhead price resistance.

  • Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG): Mean-reversion long bounce play initiated right off solid price support sitting at $366.

  • Adobe Inc. (ADBE): High-conviction long bounce trade exhibiting powerful positive divergence; targeting an 18% upside move to its 200-day SMA.

  • Intuit Inc. (INTU): Extremely oversold technical conditions setting up a high-probability mean-reversion long bounce back up to its 200-day SMA.

4. Completed Swing Trades & Milestone Recaps

The following table covers all official swing trade positions that hit one or more profit targets or triggered a stop-loss during this weekly window, including their exact realized percentages:

5. Potential Developments to Watch Going Forward

• The Financial Sector Break Point: Randy Phinney emphasizes that the broader stock market will not face a systemic flush until the financial sector officially buckles. Watch for a decisive 60-minute closing break below the active rising wedge pattern on XLF (and key support levels on heavyweights like BAC at $52.63 and JPM at $206–$210) next week to catalyze the next macro leg down.

• The Nasdaq 100 T1 Support Floor: Following a swift reaction bounce off the initial tag of the 28,525 support zone on /NQ (and the matching T1 first price target zone on QQQ), the index is retesting this floor. Because a consolidation range has built up here since June, a clean breakdown below this zone is highly likely to accelerate a rapid, fluid drop down toward the next deep targets and the 200-day moving average (~$636 on QQQ).

• The Weekly Semiconductor Reset: Keep a close eye on the weekly charts of SOXX and XSD. A major, high-level bearish PPO histogram crossover is actively printing out of historic overbought territory. This structural shift fundamentally maps out a multi-week trajectory of selling, making any short-term bounces objective short entries or add-on levels rather than long entries to chase.

• Gold Miner Scale-In Execution: Watch the structural price floor of GDX between the current $72.26 support level down to the absolute trailing floor of $67. As long as the sector holds above $67, the positive daily momentum divergences favor an intermediate counter-trend accumulation phase, utilizing falling crude prices as a margin-widening tailwind.