Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ, and the largest components, including price targets, key support & resistance levels, & potential developments to watch for.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/cdaWPPC2Sq0

This mid-session video update for July 16, 2026, features Randy Phinney of Right Side of the Chart providing an extensive technical review of the major market indexes and a wide array of individual stocks. Randy reiterates his thesis that 2026 is a “stockpicker’s market” defined by rapid moves and institutional rotation out of high-flying tech. He provides objective levels for both long bounce candidates and high-conviction short setups across the Nasdaq 100.

Market Outlook & Strategic Overview

  • The 2026 Environment: 00:51 – While Randy highlights that 2026 has clearly been & may continue to remain a heavy stockpicker’s market where institutional “smart money” is rotating out of overextended tech sectors into defensive “grandma stocks” (Consumer Staples) and various commodities for the near-term, he now suspects that the risks for a broad-based selloff in the major stock indices is increasing and that if & when that happens, he may start favor concentrated short positions on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 & select sectors, such as the semiconductors, over the recent relatively rapid rotation of swing trading a diverse specturm of individual stocks. He emphasizes that rapid technical movements in the recent stock-picker’s market require traders to book price targets quickly once the final target is hit, as sudden reversals off those levels have been the norm lately.

  • Market Concentration: 14:38 – Analysis of the “Top 10” heavy concentration in the Nasdaq 100, where a handful of stocks dictate the index’s direction despite internal weakness.

Indexes, Sectors & ETFs

  • Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): 00:56 – Randy maintains a bearish near-term and intermediate-term stance, looking for a correction back toward the 200-day moving average. The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern under heavy pressure.
    • Objective Entry/Levels: Randy identifies critical near-term support at $705, which is likely to spark the next wave of selling if & when clearly taken out.

Price Targets: Following the initial hit of Target Zone 1 (T1), Randy is eyeing Target Zone 2 (T2) at roughly $662 and deeper third & fourth targets below, resulting in a drop of about 15% from the recent highs, if hit.

  • S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 00:56 – Briefly discussed in the context of the broader market, showing a sideways trading range with signs of institutional capital outflows.
  • Grains/Agriculture ETF (TILL): 06:09 – (Visible in scroll) Randy remains intermediate & longer-term bullish on agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans.

Individual Stock Analysis

  • IBM (International Business Machines): 07:05 –Randy discusses a tactical long bounce trade. He highlights a potential “false breakdown” or “bear trap” where the stock dropped through support to trigger stops before recovering today.

    • Entry: Long at support near $215.18.

    • Stop: Daily close below $208.82.

  • NVDA (NVIDIA Corp): 25:56 – Bearish stance following a divergent high.

    • Levels: Watching for a break below the 195ish price support & 200-day moving averages just below in order to trigger a sell signal. 

  • AAPL (Apple Inc): 25:59 – Identification of a bearish rising wedge and negative divergence.

    • Price Target: Retest of the 200-day SMA, roughly a 17% decline, should the potential sell signals covered in the video trigger.

  • GOOGL (Alphabet Inc Class A): 28:37 – Testing dual support from an uptrend line and the 200-day moving average.

  • MSFT (Microsoft Corp): 30:26 – Technical “no man’s land” between the 200-day SMA and current support.

  • AMZN (Amazon.com Inc): 33:02 – Failed breakout above previous all-time highs; sell signal on a trendline break.

  • AVGO (Broadcom Inc): 36:45 – Failed breakout with negative divergence; eyeing a drop to the 200-day SMA.

  • META (Meta Platforms Inc): 38:28 – Trading at a significant long-term resistance line off the all-time highs.

  • TSLA (Tesla Inc): 40:55 – Momentum loss within a symmetrical triangle; watching the April 2024 trendline.

  • MU (Micron Technology Inc): 43:49 – High-probability short; potential 50% overall decline if support breaks.

  • WMT (Walmart Inc): 45:16 – Recently broke below & backtested the primary uptrend line & is currently backtesting the 200-day moving averages from below.

  • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): 46:09 – Downside risk to the primary support zone & price target around 361.30 & the 200-day moving averages, for a drop of about 40% off the recent highs, if hit.

  • ASML (ASML Holding NV): 48:30 – Watching for a break of intersectional support; downside target of -37%.

  • INTC (Intel Corp): 50:43 –Randy views Intel as a high-probability short following a break of its primary bull market uptrend line.

    • Price Targets: T1 at 99.59 has recently been hit with INTC breaking below that price target/support level today, increasing the odds for a move down to his next two target around 83.40 & the 70ish level, for a potential drop as much as 50% off the recent highs, if his final target is hit.
    • Next price targets are 83.40 & then the intersecting 200-day moving averages, 69.90ish price support & backfill of the April 24th gap, representing a potential 50% overall drop.

  • AMAT (Applied Materials Inc): 52:07 – At trendline support; Randy warns of institutional “unwinding” potential.

  • CSCO (Cisco Systems Inc): 54:43 – Short target of $101.80 (approx. 30% drop from highs).

  • LRCX (Lam Research Corp): 55:23 – Bearish targeting of the 200-day SMA confluence support.

  • COST (Costco Wholesale Corp): 55:46 – A brief discussion of  “subscription fatigue” thesis; watch for a break of the $907 level.

  • PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc): 56:56 – Rejected at the 200-day moving average despite positive divergence.

  • NFLX (Netflix Inc): 57:51 – Pre-earnings analysis; severe long-term downside target of $46.00.

  • TMUS (T-Mobile US Inc): 61:55 – Tactical long bounce candidate with 5-10% upside to resistance.

  • ISRG (Intuitive Surgical Inc): 63:30 – Mean reversion bounce candidate from price support at $366.

  • ADBE (Adobe Inc): 64:23 – Strong positive divergence; targeting the 200-day SMA (approx. 18% upside).

  • MDLZ (Mondelez International Inc): 64:58 – Retesting support; neutral stance.

  • INTU (Intuit Inc): 65:23 – Extremely oversold; mean reversion trade to the 200-day SMA.

Ticker Symbols Discussed:
SPY, QQQ, TILL, IBM, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, META, TSLA, MU, WMT, AMD, GOOG, ASML, INTC, AMAT, CSCO, LRCX, COST, PLTR, NFLX, TMUS, ISRG, ADBE, MDLZ, INTU