Crude Oil Approaching Support With Bullish Divergences

/CL (light sweet crude oil futures) is approaching the 66.80ish support level with positive (bullish) divergences forming on the RSI & PPO, thereby increasing the odds of a counter-trend rally anywhere from current levels down to the 66.80ish area. 60-minute chart: CL 60-min July 16th Likewise, USO has fallen to the 13.95 support level with potential bullish divergence forming on the 60-min time frame. As such a minor counter-trend rally is likely followed by another thrust down to the 13.60ish support level over the next week or so. USO 60-min July 16th I remain intermediate-term bearish on [...]

2018-07-16T11:27:43+00:00Jul 16, 2018 11:27am|Categories: Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , |12 Comments

ALK & USO Analysis

There has been some recent interest in ALK (Alaska Air Group Inc.) as well as crude oil within the trading room so I figured that I'd share my analysis on both here, as fuel prices are the second largest expense (behind labor) for airlines. The first chart below is a daily chart of ALK overlaid with USO in white. In order to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on their bottom line, airlines will attempt to hedge against rising oil prices & (ideally) remove hedges when they expect fuel prices to fall. It appears that ALK started to get their [...]

2018-07-10T12:27:35+00:00Jul 10, 2018 12:27pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Gold & Commodities, Unofficial Long Ideas|Tags: , , |3 Comments

USO, Crude Oil ETN, At Gap Resistance

Member @wealthy requested an update on crude oil within the trading room. Following a very extended advance, USO (crude oil ETN) put in a divergent high on May 22nd, reversed from there & went on to break down below the primary uptrend line generated off the June 2017 lows. USO traded below the uptrend line for nearly 3 weeks before last Friday's impulsive gap & rally back above the trendline where it has remained since. USO daily chart June 26th As of today, USO has backfilled the large & technical significant gap from May 25th, the top of which [...]

2018-06-26T15:01:57+00:00Jun 26, 2018 3:01pm|Categories: Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , |1 Comment

Technical Analysis of Stocks, Bonds, Oil & Gold

Technical analysis providing the outlook for the US stock market, crude oil, gold & GDX, as well as treasury bonds. The following securities are covered in this order: QQQ, SOXX, USO, GOLD, GDX, TLT & IEF. playback speed can be increased in the settings to reduce video duration

2018-06-22T12:50:52+00:00Jun 22, 2018 12:50pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Fixed Income (Bonds), Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |5 Comments

Crude Oil Falling Wedge Pattern

I've added an additional downtrend line to the /CL (crude futures) 60-minute chart to form a second, larger falling wedge pattern. CL recently backtested the smaller, previously highlighted wedge yesterday & has crossed above the larger, yellow downtrend line today, although today's breakout has not been very impulsive yet. Should this breakout start to gain some momentum to the upside, it would likely send CL up to at least the  67.24ish level & USO to around 13.58. Such a move would likely translate into a rally in the energy stocks (XLE, XOP, XES, etc.) as well, assuming the broad [...]

2018-06-07T09:40:58+00:00Jun 7, 2018 9:40am|Categories: Gold & Commodities, Unofficial Long Ideas|Tags: , , |4 Comments