The near-term & intermediate-term outlook for the US stock market including key support & resistance levels as well as price targets.
XIV (Inverse VIX Short-term ETN) looks poised for a drop to at least the 96.61ish area on a break below this 60-minute bearish rising wedge pattern (~11% below current levels). Daily & 60-minute charts of XIV followed by the daily chart of the $VIX, unofficial trade idea. This scenario hinges largely on my recently posted 60-minute scenarios for QQQ, SPY & IWM playing out as well.
Some of the things that I'm watching for in the stock market today as well as a few trade ideas that stand out right now. This video starts with a quick update on the broad markets via QQQ, SPY & IWM, followed by a look at the volatility indexes ($VXN & $VIX) as well as an update on some of the recently highlighted trade ideas that look compelling at this time.
The near & intermediate-term outlook for the stock market via QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), SPY (S&P 500 ETF), IWM (Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF) & MDY (Midcap 400 ETF) as well as analysis on the $VIX volatility index. Click the setting icon at the bottom right of the chart if you wish to increase the playback speed of the video to shorten the duration.
The scenarios outlined with the dashed orange lines on the 60-minute chart of QQQ, SPY & IWM highlight my expectation for a pullback ranging from at least 1½-3% from the recent highs with a move down to as low as the 240.50ish level on the SPY quite likely. As we are now thick into earnings season, some of the potential market moving earnings reports due out next week are: GOOG/GOOG Monday after the close AMD Tuesday after the close AMZN Thursday after the close INTC Thursday after the close XOM Friday before the open CVX Friday before the open [...]
As per the request for analysis on VXX from @lkeno in the trading room, my charts on both $VIX (spot VIX, CBOE Volatility Index) and VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN) are below. As the underperformance/tracking error of the volatility/VIX tracking ETNs are among the worst of just about any exchange traded products out there, I also include the chart of the spot VIX ($VIX) in my analysis for the VIX tracking ETNs. The abysmal underperformance, particularly when holding the VIX tracking ETNs for more than just a quick trade, can easily be seen in comparing these two year [...]
A recap of today's price action & recent technical developments in the US equity markets (SPY, QQQ & IWM) as well as a few key sectors ETFs such as XLK (technology), XBI & IBB (biotechs), SMH, XSD & SOXX (semiconductors) as well as the volatility indexes ($VIX & $VXN).