An overview of the bond market including treasury bonds, corporate bonds & municipal bonds via interest rates as well as various bond ETFs. Both technical & fundamental analysis of the bond market, as well as implications to the stock market along with the benefits of asset allocation & portfolio diversification, are also discussed. playback speed can be increased in the settings to reduce video duration
Member @jrandhawa posted the following request in the trading room: Randy Please discuss the charts of 2yr & shorter duration treasuries relative to 10yr treasury too. Thanks in advance. Even if one has little to no desire to trade or invest in treasury bonds, most experienced stock traders & investors will keep one eye on the bond market at all times as it can often provide clues as to where the stock market might be headed. Certain developments such as an increase or decrease in credit spreads (the differential in rates between treasuries & lower quality corporate bonds such as junk [...]
Technical analysis on the US stock market, oil, gold, energy stocks & several trade ideas that stand out at this time. There is quite a bit covered in this video so you might want to increase the playback speed of the video (under settings) to 1.25 or 1.5x to reduce the duration.
After a sharp drop in the first hour of trading, QQQ & SPY have experienced snap-back rallies into resistance with the MACD signal line recently crossing into bearish territory (short-term trend) for the first time in over a month. Note how well the MACD signal line/9-ema has defined the short-term trend as bullish or bearish when above or below the zero line. While these are 30-minute charts, my preference is to see both the MACD and PPO signal lines cross below their respective zero lines as well as bearish crossover of the 13/33-ema pair on the 60-minute time frames. As of [...]
Global equity markets are rallying in a 'risk-on' trade while safe haven assets such as treasury bonds & gold are being sold as a result of the French elections & lessened probability of a Frexit. Here's a snapshot of the risk-on & risk-off assets: Gold, U.S. Treasury Bonds & a few the major US stock indices. Starting with the safe haven assets, GLD (Gold ETF) is being sold today along with treasuries as of flight out of safe-haven assets. The sell-off in GLD could also be attributed to the fact that it just recently reached the most overbought readings since in [...]
A breakout above this downtrend line/basing pattern in TLT (Long-term Treasury Bond ETF) should spark a rally in treasury bonds & is very likely to roughly coincide with the beginning of a sell-off in the stock market. Hard to say if that breakout in TLT will come very soon as TLT is somewhat stretched on the intraday time frames with potential negative divergence forming on the 60 & 120-minute charts. As such, maybe one final reaction off this downtrend line on that TLT basing pattern before a breakout & sustained rally? Hard to say but one constant almost always holds true [...]
Back on April 6th in the post titled Muni Bombs, I had outlined the scenario in the first weekly chart of MUB (Municipal Bond ETF) posted below, stating that "A break below this uptrend line is likely to bring MUB (iShares S&P National Municipal Bond ETF) down to levels which will have wiped at least a year's worth of interest payments & quite possibly much more in the so-called "safe haven" trade of municipal bonds." So far that scenario has played out as predicted, with a very impulsive sell-off in municipal bonds since prices broke down below the uptrend [...]