Here is a weekly recap of the topics, securities, and trade developments posted on rightsideofthechart.com for the week ending Friday, July 10, 2026:

1. Executive Market Commentary & Strategy

  • Summer Doldrums: Trading volume remains light with choppy, “whipsaw” price action typical of the low-liquidity weeks surrounding the Independence Day holiday. Technical breakouts during this period are viewed with skepticism.

  • Sideways Consolidation: Major equity indices remain locked in a sloppy, sideways two-to-three-month trading range.

  • Strategic Execution: Randy Phinney emphasizes that the current environment is heavily a “stockpicker’s market.” Traders are advised to map out precise entry levels and use OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) orders to automatically manage risk and lock in profits.

2. Major Stock Market Indices & ETFs

  • Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) / Nasdaq 100 Futures (Ticker: /NQ): Locked in a tight sideways range since mid-May between $725.64 resistance and $705 support. Price momentum indicators (PPO/RSI) are showing heavy, persistent negative divergences at recent marginal highs, carrying an 80%+ historical failure rate. Phinney continues to favor an ultimate downside breakdown targeting the $636 level (the 200-day moving average) while recognizing the potential for a marginal new high, which would still be a divergent high & likely to fail shortly afterwards, if that alternative scenario occurs anytime soon.

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Mirroring the QQQ, it is locked in a sloppy sideways range after breaking its primary March uptrend line. Looking for a breakdown to back-test the top of its multi-month base and its 200-day moving average near $496.

  • iShares Russell 2000 ETF (Ticker: IWM): Small-caps are sitting on an active sell signal. After breaking down from a clear bearish rising wedge pattern off the March lows, it completed a technical back-test of the broken trendline and turned lower. A new downside target has been added at $218 to check a key gap fill.

  • PHLX Semiconductor Index (Index: $SOX / ETF Ticker: SOXX): Long-term weekly charts indicate the sector is historically overbought. Upward momentum has stalled out completely, making a major bearish weekly PPO crossover imminent. The historically patterns of significant corrections & bear markets that have generally followed bearish crossovers on the weekly PPO can be viewed during Friday’s coverage of the PHLX Semiconductor Index (Index: SOX / ETF Ticker: SOXX) at the following timestamp | [51:58]

3. Internal Market Health & Macro Indicators

  • Market Breadth ($NAA200R / $NAA50R): Phinney highlights a dangerous internal disparity. While cap-weighted indices sit near all-time highs, over half of individual stocks within the NASDAQ are trading below their 200-day moving average (only 44% are above it). Market upside has been artificially sustained by mega-cap tech and select chip stocks while broad participation degrades.

  • Equity-Only Put-to-Call Ratio (Indicator: $CPCE): Sentiment gauges display extreme, persistent complacency without a “reset” spike in fear since late 2023. This leaves the structural architecture of the market highly vulnerable to sudden corrections.

  • US 30-Year Treasury Yield (Indicator: $TYX): Hovering within “spitting distance” of breaking out past a massive multi-decade triple-top resistance at 5.15%. Higher lows suggest risk is skewed toward an upside breakout, indicating the Federal Reserve has effectively lost control of the long end of the yield curve.

  • Commodities & Inflation (ETFs: DJP / DBC): Noted as the single best real-time indicator of sticky, structural inflation. Commodities have consistently made higher highs & lower highs (i.e., an uptrend) since ending a secular bear market in 2020.

4. Sectors, Individual Securities, & Commodities

  • Consumer Discretionary Sector (ETF Ticker: XLY): Long-term monthly charts show a massive multi-year negative divergence building. A breakdown beneath its primary trendline (currently dancing on daily support near $114) could target an ultimate 44%–45% drop down to $64.50 over the next year or two.

    • Amazon (Ticker: AMZN): Briefly bounced from its 200-day moving average, but lacks appealing structural technical characteristics.

    • Tesla (Ticker: TSLA): Walking a key primary uptrend line; a dynamic breakdown here would weigh heavily on the broad market indices.

    • Home Depot (Ticker: HD): After a 25% rally off a wedge breakout, it repeatedly failed to clear its 200-day moving average resistance. It rolled over 7% and is actively flashing a bearish PPO crossover.

    • McDonald’s (Ticker: MCD): Holds a positive divergence but remains pinned beneath a downtrend line. It is a sit-and-wait asset that becomes attractive if it drops to $262.

    • TJX Companies (Ticker: TJX): Flashing a bear flag pattern while retesting a multi-year uptrend line and its 200-day moving average simultaneously. A break below support targets a ~10% drop into the $78–$86 zone.

    • Booking Holdings (Ticker: BKNG): Trapped in a clear markdown trend, zigzagging lower while staying capped below its 200-day moving average.

    • DoorDash (Ticker: DASH): The rally was heavily rejected at its 200-day moving average, subsequently breaking its minor short-term uptrend line.

  • Precious Metals (ETFs: GLD / SLV / GDX):

    • Gold (GLD / $GOLD): The recent pullback returned GLD to its “third & final price target zone,” from the recent swing short trade entered around the all-time highs back in January, which continues to acts as strong price support rather than a technical breakdown. Near-to-intermediate outlook favors a counter-trend bounce coming off a divergent low on the 60-minute and daily charts.

    • Silver (SLV): Pulled back slightly past its target zone, overshooting into a solid technical buy zone. Noted as an excellent mean-reversion asset that will track gold’s trajectory.

    • Gold Miners (GDX): Closed the short positions, which were also entered almost perfectly off the all-time highs earlier this year, as miners hit the “T2” price target & support level with positive divergence. Falling crude oil prices (~$74/barrel) are noted as a net tailwind, lowering input costs. A scaling-in buy plan down to but not below $67 is maintained. Individual miners showing positive divergence or support testing include NEM, AEM, WPM, FNV, GOLD, KGC, PAAS, AGI, HL, CDE, and IAG.

  • F5, Inc. (Ticker: FFIV): Formed a bearish rising wedge pattern. A fresh sell signal will trigger on a decisive drop beneath the lower trendline of the current wedge.

  • Natural Gas Futures (Ticker: /NG / ETF: UNG): In response to winter positioning questions, Phinney explicitly recommends trading and charting the current, most liquid contract month rather than guessing forward months due to variables like contango, backwardation, and geopolitics. The recent UNG long trade hit the first price target zone around $12 initially back in May & has been capped by that resistance level since, with another buy signal to come if & when that level is clearly taken out.

5. Trade Ideas Milestone Recap

The following setups achieved one or more official price targets or closed this week:

  • QQQ / /NQ (Short Triggered):

    • Trigger Date: July 8, 2026

    • Development: A pre-market breakdown beneath the key $705 support level on QQQ (and 26,260 on /NQ) triggered a new active swing short entry/sell signal. That pre-market break below the $705 support proved to be a brief whipsaw with QQQ closing the week on the aforementioned/highlighted $725.60ish resistance, around the middle of the 2-month sideways trading range with QQQ still in a near-term downtrend (lower lows & lower highs) since the June 22nd divergence high on the 60-minute time frame.

  • Kimberly-Clark Corporation (Ticker: KMB) — Long Trade Closed:

    • Milestone: Hit its final upside price target (T3).

    • Profit: 22% Profit (inclusive of $2.56 in dividends paid since the initial January 6th entry).

    • Outlook: A high-level bearish PPO crossover is actively printing out of overbought territory. Phinney suggests waiting for a deeper pullback toward the 200-day moving average (T1 support) before looking to re-enter.

  • Rare Earth Metals ETF (Ticker: REMX) — Short Trade Closed:

    • Milestone: Hit its second & final official profit target (T2).

    • Profit: 20% Profit.

    • Outlook: Moved formally to the Completed Trades archive. While Phinney notes a preference that it may ultimately fall to a potential third target before a lasting reversal, it was archived to maintain premium tracking data integrity.

  • Kraft Heinz Co. (Ticker: KHC) — Long Trade Milestone:

    • Milestone: Hit its third profit target (T3).

    • Profit: 17% Profit (inclusive of the $0.40 dividend paid out on June 26th).

  • Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (Ticker: RYAN) — Long Trade Closed:

    • Milestone: Hit its second and final official price target (T2) on Thursday, July 9th.

    • Profit: 35% Profit.

  • Grab Holdings Ltd (Ticker: GRAB) — Long Trade Milestone:

    • Milestone: Hit its second price target (T2) on Thursday, July 9th.

    • Profit: ~17% Profit. Traders holding out for the final target (T3) are advised to raise stops.

As mentioned on Friday, after keeping new positions & trade ideas light for the last couple of weeks due to the low-volume, choppy, sideways, & whipsaw-plagued pre- and post-Independence Day market, I plan to turn my focus back to scouting for new trade ideas or potential developments to monitor going forward. Here are some of the key items to watch this week, along with an explanation of why global long-term debt yields are critical to monitor right now.

Market Summary: What to Watch This Week

1. Crucial Macro Data & Central Bank Testimony

  • June CPI Inflation Data (Tuesday): A major focus for the market, especially after the consumer price index jumped to 4.2% year-over-year in May (up from 3.8% in April). Investors are looking to see if inflation pressures are truly abating or if factors like volatile fuel prices will keep the cost of living high.

  • Fed Chair Testimony (Tuesday & Wednesday): Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress. Markets will hang on his every word regarding the trajectory of interest rates, the Fed’s view on inflation risks following recent geopolitical shifts, and how new Fed data-collection task forces might impact future policy.

  • Consumer Sentiment (Friday): The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will offer a pulse check on the American consumer. After hitting historic lows in May due to inflation and job market worries, investors want to see if June’s slight rebound carries over.

2. Heavyweight Earnings Reports

  • The Big Banks (Tuesday–Thursday): Q2 earnings season kicks off in earnest with Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), on Tuesday, before the market opens (BMO) followed by Morgan Stanley (MS) & U.S. Bancorp (USB) on Thursday, BMO. Watch for executives’ commentary on the health of the U.S. consumer, stagflation risks, commercial loan growth, and whether AI enthusiasm is successfully driving capital markets activity.

  • Tech & AI Momentum (Thursday): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) reports Q2 results. As the world’s largest contract chipmaker, its numbers and guidance will serve as a massive health check for the broader global AI trade. Netflix (NFLX) also reports, with investors watching to see if its softened forecast and leadership transitions continue to weigh on the stock.

  • Corporate Health & Consumer Trends (Wednesday–Thursday): United Airlines (UAL), UnitedHealth Group (UHC): Medicare Advantage impacts, and GE Aerospace (GE): aerospace demand vs. geopolitical hurdles) will provide a clear look into corporate margins.

The Importance of Watching Global Long-Term Debt Yields

While equity earnings dominate headlines, long-term government bond yields—like the US 10- & 30-year Treasuries, UK Gilts, and Japan’s 10- to 40-year JGBs—act as the actual bedrock of the global financial system. Watching them this week is crucial for several reasons:

The “Risk-Free” Benchmark for Stocks

Long-term yields represent the benchmark return investors can get with virtually zero risk. When US 10-year or 30-year Treasury yields rise, it places downward pressure on stock valuations (especially high-growth tech and AI stocks). If investors can lock in high, safe yields from government bonds, they become less willing to pay premium prices for risky equities.

Gauging Inflation and Monetary Policy Expectations

Long-term bonds are highly sensitive to inflation. Because inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond’s fixed future payments, a hot CPI print this Tuesday will likely cause investors to demand higher yields, driving bond prices down. Conversely, tracking UK Gilts and Japan’s ultra-long JGBs (up to 40 years) reveals how global investors view long-term inflation and economic growth outside the U.S.

The Global Cost of Capital

Government bond yields dictate the interest rates for everything else—mortgages, corporate debt, and municipal loans. If UK Gilts or US Treasuries spike, borrowing costs for corporations rise instantly, threatening profit margins and slowing down mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs (the very things Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executives are concerned about).

Sovereign Pressure Points: The Case of Japan (JGBs)

Japan’s long-term bonds (10- to 40-year JGBs) are particularly critical to watch because the Bank of Japan has historically maintained ultra-low interest rates. If Japanese long-term yields rise significantly, it can trigger a repatriation of capital. Japanese institutional investors hold trillions of dollars in US Treasuries and global debt; if they can suddenly get decent yields at home, they may sell global assets to bring money back to Japan, inadvertently driving US and European yields even higher.