This video highlights several trade ideas that may be added as official trades soon but also discusses my preference to "let the dust settle" before opening many new swing trade positions due to the increased volatility & intraday price swings that usually follow a sharp drop in the market. These swift & relatively large intraday rips & dips greatly increase the chance of any well-placed stops loss orders being run, even if the trade goes on to hit the price target shortly afterwards. My near-term scenarios as well as some key technical levels to watch on the broad market are discussed [...]
Technical analysis of the semiconductor sector via ETFs and several leading semiconductor stocks providing the near-term & longer-term outlook for the sector. Playback speed can be increased in the settings (1.25x or 1.5x) to reduce the duration of the video
Thursday's reaction low taken out in SPY & QQQ today, increasing the chances that my price target will be hit (another ~2% downside at minimum as additional target might be added). Also note that the 60-minute trend indicators now bearish on both SPY as well as QQQ. With the Nasdaq 100 poised to fall, the semiconductor sector will most likely provide an even more lucrative shorting opportunity, quite likely falling as much as 9% in the coming weeks by my estimates (charts soon as that might be added as an official trade).
Technical analysis of the stock market, crude oil as well as several swing trading opportunities that stand out at this time. The following securities are covered in this order: /CL (crude futures), XOP, XLE, NVDA, SOXX, SMH, XSD, CRUS, QCOM, XLP, XBI, SPY, QQQ, & IWM. Playback speed can be increased in the video settings to reduce the duration of the video. The optimal setting is 1.25x playback speed.
The semiconductor sector is approaching the key primary uptrend line support following the recent divergent high. The sector still looks poised for a significant correction with a sell signal to come on a break & close below these respective trendlines on the following three semiconductor ETFs; SOXX, SMH & XSD. Additional confirmation for a sell signal on the semiconductor sector will come on a breakdown of the largest semiconductor stock, TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.). TSM is currently sitting precariously on its 2+ year, very well-defined primary uptrend line, also following a divergent high/bearish rising wedge formation & will [...]
A brief (8 minute) overview of QQQ, SPY & the semiconductor sector via SOXX, XSD & SMH.
The recently highlighted 60-min divergences (first chart below from Aug 18th) have been confirmed with QQQ bouncing today (2nd chart). Hard to say how far they will play out but with the outlook for the more significant daily time frame bearish, my expectation is that this bounce will likely be capped by any of the 3 resistance levels above on the updated 60-minute chart. The story on the three main semiconductor sector ETFs is the same: They are all walking up trendline support while pinching towards the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern where a breakout, one way or [...]