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As a sub-category of Market Analysis, the Fixed Income category contains charts and commentary associated with all classes of fixed income such as Treasury Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Municipal Bonds, Junk Bonds, etc…

Bond Correction Likely Underway

As a follow-up to Friday's Bond Market Poised for Correction: Prices Down, Rates Up  post, there are a couple of notable technical developments in the fixed income markets today, such as the backtest in JNK, a sharp drop in treasury prices following the divergent high & the breakdown below trendline support in municipal bonds. [...]

Jun 20, 2016 11:33am|Categories: Fixed Income (Bonds)|Tags: , , , |Comments Off on Bond Correction Likely Underway

Bond Market Poised for Correction: Prices Down, Rates Up

The price of bonds is typically inversely correlated to interest rates (i.e. prices up=rates down & vice versa), with the one exception being high-yield, aka junk bonds, which tend to trade more in-line with equities as they are much more impacted by the economic cycle than fluctuations in rates. With that being said, it appears [...]

Jun 17, 2016 12:36pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Fixed Income (Bonds)|Tags: , , , |7 Comments

Muni Bombs

A break below this uptrend line is likely to bring MUB (iShares S&P National Municipal Bond ETF) down to levels which will have wiped at least a year's worth of interest payments & quite possibly much more in the so-called "safe haven" trade of municipal bonds. This weekly chart shows that the technical setup for [...]

Apr 6, 2016 8:52pm|Categories: Fixed Income (Bonds)|Tags: |3 Comments

Last Chance To Refinance?

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond dipped below 2% for the first time since June 2013. For anyone that might have missed an opportunity to refinance over the last few years this could be the last trough in rates before the train leaves the station for good. As today, the average rate on [...]

Oct 15, 2014 12:42pm|Categories: Fixed Income (Bonds)|Tags: |Comments Off on Last Chance To Refinance?

Junk Bonds Continue To Warn Of A Likely Stock Market Correction

Since the May 30th post titled Junk Bond Spreads Flashing a Warning Sign for Equities, the divergences between the normal (inverse) correlation between equities and junk bond credit spreads has continued to build. This first chart plots the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield CCC or below (aka- junk bonds) Option-Adjust Spread vs. the S&P [...]

Jul 21, 2014 12:29pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Fixed Income (Bonds)|Tags: , |Comments Off on Junk Bonds Continue To Warn Of A Likely Stock Market Correction

Junk Bond Spreads Flashing A Warning Sign For Equities

This first chart below showcases the nearly perfect inverse correlation between the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, and the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread, i.e.- junk bond spreads. For those not familiar with the term option-adjusted spreads (OAS), click here to view the definition. Admittedly, there [...]

May 30, 2014 11:37am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Fixed Income (Bonds)|Tags: |Comments Off on Junk Bond Spreads Flashing A Warning Sign For Equities