US Dollar, Gold, Silver, GDX & Marijuana Stocks

In addition to investment grade bonds (treasuries, munis & BBB+ rated corporate bonds) which were covered in yesterday's post, a few other potential bottoming plays that stand out at this time are gold, silver & the related mining stocks, cannabis stocks and some the major currencies (vs. the US Dollar) such as the Euro, Yen, Pound Sterling. Essentially, other than the cannabis stocks, which have virtually zero correlation to the stock market or any currencies, including the US dollar, all of the above (gold, silver, GDX, major currencies & even the investment grade bonds) have a fairly strong correlation to the [...]

Trend Reversal in GLD, GDX & US Dollar Likely

Gold & the precious metal mining stocks are at resistance while overbought on the near-term time frames while the US Dollar looks poised for a bounce. As such, the odds for a pullback or correction in GLD & GDX are quite elevated at this time. This video starts with an overview of the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro & Yen, both of which indicate that the recent rally in the dollar which has been the primary driving force behind the recent rally in gold, may soon be over. From there, the charts of GLD & GDX [...]

US Dollar Breaks Out Against the Yen

The USD/JPY (Dollar/Yen currency pair) has triggered the anticipated breakout above this bullish falling wedge, which is a bullish technical event for the US Dollar as the Yen is the second largest component (13.6% weighting) of the US Dollar Index. Horizontal lines mark potential resistance/target levels. The USD/JPY has so far played out exactly as forecasted in the Sept 6th scenario (first chart below), pulling back & bouncing off this support level & going on to break out above the falling wedge. Personally, I don't trade currencies often although I do keep a close eye on the major currencies [...]

Oct 4, 2016 10:46am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Forex (Currencies), Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |Comments Off on US Dollar Breaks Out Against the Yen

Time For The Stock Market To Start A Hissy Fit

Powerful divergences still intact on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, etc... With a decent chance of a rate hike on Sept 21st, the market is likely to do one (or both) of two things: 1) throw a hissy fit before the meeting to try & scare the Fed away from raising rates, at it has done on all previous occasions when a decent chance for a rate hike was on the table or.. 2) market participants remain complacent, with prices holding up near all-time highs, only to sell off sharply after a rate hike, should we get one at the conclusion [...]

Sep 9, 2016 9:35am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , |11 Comments

Do You Want To Know Where Gold Is Going?

It is clear that the recently on & off inverse correlation between the US Dollar and gold prices has once again returned, with a near perfect inverse correlation lately as the dollar & gold react to any economic releases that could impact the next FOMC rate decision. Therefore, if you want to know where gold prices are headed, then all you have to do is figure out where the US Dollar is headed. This 5-minute period chart plots GLD (gold ETP) against UUP (US Dollar ETP). GLD vs UUP Sept 6th   Figuring out where the Greenback is heading [...]

FXY (Yen) Poised to Rally

FXY (Japanese Yen Trust ETP) looks poised to rally on a breakout above both this descending price channel (yellow lines) and the white downtrend line. Horizontal lines mark potential price targets. FXY, YCL (2x long Yen) or possibly a YCS (2x short Yen) may be added as official trade ideas soon. Until then, I just wanted to pass this setup along for any currency traders that might be interested. FXY daily July 8th

Jul 8, 2015 1:21pm|Categories: Forex (Currencies)|Tags: , |Comments Off on FXY (Yen) Poised to Rally