Nov 172014

ANR hit the final target, T2 at 2.99, last week for a 45.9% gain. T1 (2.46) was hit for a 20% gain just a few sessions early. ANR may be added back as a new Long Trade idea soon but as T2 was the final target, the ANR trade has been completed & will now be archived in the Completed Trades category for future reference. Previous & updated 60 minute charts below:

Nov 172014
CORN daily Nov 17th

CORN daily Nov 17th

As I’ve spend some time away from my desk over the last few weeks, there are quite a few trade ideas in need of updating. As most of these trade updates are not time sensitive, email notifications will not be sent out on the remainder of the updates.

CORN (Corn ETF) hit the second price target last week. Although the odds of a pullback and/or consolidation around this level are elevated, T3 remains the final target at this time. As prices are still trading in close proximity to the Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. If holding out for T3, an objective stop would be below the 25 area (assuming an entry on the wedge breakout). Updated daily chart shown.

Nov 132014

USO (Crude Oil ETF) will be added as a semi-aggressive Active Long Trade here around the 28.75ish level. The reasoning behind this trade is based on several developments that have been recently discussed here. First of all, I continue to believe that the US Dollar is poised for a major trend reversal and the inverse relationship between the dollar & crude is highly correlated (dollar down, crude up & vice versa). Secondly, crude (as shown in the USO weekly chart below) has fallen to the bottom of a major multi-year support zone while at oversold levels (weekly RSI reading of 21.54) not seen since the plunge in crude prices during the late 2008/early 2009 meltdown in the financial markets. As recently discussed, every oversold reading for at least the last decade has either accompanied or slightly preceded major rallies in crude prices, ranging from 36% to 178%.

Zooming down to the 120-minute period chart, USO is rapidly approaching the apex of a fully mature bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences in place. The fact that I have decided to go long crude while prices are still trading within the wedge makes this a somewhat aggressive trade. More conventional traders might opt to wait for a confirmed breakout above the wedge before establishing a long position. The first four price targets are shown on the 120-minute chart with the exact suggested sell limit levels along with the suggested stop(s) to be added soon. Based on the case made for an impending trend reversal in the US Dollar as well as a possible trend reversal in crude prices based on my analysis of the weekly charts, USO has the potential to morph into a Long-Term Trade with additional price targets to be added, depending on how both the dollar and crude trade in the coming weeks & months.

Nov 122014

The following video covers various diversified US stock indices. Separate updates in either video and/or static chart formats on both the precious metals (gold, silver & the related miners) and select commodities (coal & agricultural) will follow either later today or tomorrow.

As this video went longer than expected, listed below is a brief summary of the talking points:

  • The first 19 minutes or so covers various US stock indices, focusing primary on the recent technical developments, mostly on the daily time frame charts.
  • From about 19 minutes to 30 minutes the longer-term outlook for the US markets is covered with an emphasis on the weekly time frame charts.
  • Around the 31 minute mark, a potential ominous development within the High-Yield Credit Spreads market is highlighted, noting a very similar disconnect between high-yield spread & US equities since 2007.
  • At the 37:30 mark, the video concludes with a quick update to the previously highlighted divergences between equities & the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.

Essentially, by my interpretation, the near-term outlook for the US equity broad markets remains fairly obscure at this time with conflicting bullish & bearish developments. As such, the lack of new trade ideas on the site is a reflection of my own personal decision to keep my overall trading light until a more attractive risk/reward technical picture in the broad market develops. That could come very soon or it might take another few weeks or more. By most metrics, the trends on all time frames (short, intermediate & long-term) are currently bullish. While the recent sharp rally in US equities has certainly dampened the near-term bearish outlook on several key indices (but not all), the longer-term bearish developments that have been covered over the last several months continue to persist at this time. Of course, to reluctantly quote that baffoon Jim Cramer, there’s always a bull market somewhere, hence the video to follow soon on the coal stocks like WLT (which at Monday’s highs was up 145% in less than a month and 100% from the long entry just over 3 weeks ago).


Nov 122014

I was away on a short family vacation since Friday but I’ve been catching up on the charts today and plan to publish a few short video updates today. The videos will be broken down into the three themes that I continue to focus on heading into the year and likely well into 2015: The US equity markets; precious metals & miners; and commodities (specifically coal & select ag commodities at this time). I hope to have the first video published by noon ET today with the remaining updates to follow.

As my personal trading activity has been very light recently, focused mainly on my existing positions, there haven’t been many new trade ideas or updates posted lately. However, my plan is to start looking for some new trade ideas as soon as I update the existing trade ideas on the site. It has also been brought to my attention that the contact form (located under the “Resources” tab) is not functioning and I hope to have that fixed asap. Until then, feel free to contact me at randy at right side of the chart dot com (typed out as to prevent the spam robots that crawl the web from finding & using it).

-Randy Phinney