Apr 152014
 

Just to clarify or expand on the previous 60 minute QQQ chart & comments, we did get a 60 minute close below the recent lows in the Q’s but by the slightest margin. Much more importantly, the three broad US indices that I focus my analysis on; the $SPX, $NDX, & $RUT are all still sitting essentially on or above key support (my long-standing first downside targets on the daily charts). Of course support is support until broken and although I still favor prices ultimately breaking below these support levels, at this time I continue to favor a bounce off the initial tag of these levels. As I’ve also repeatedly stated over the last several trading sessions, my degree of confidence on the near-term directions of the markets (and hence, any possible bounce) is not very strong and so my preference remains to keep things light by hedging up close to a market neutral portfolio (taking some long exposure to offset a large number of swing short trades that have yet to hit my preferred targets).

The daily charts of the $NDX, $SPX & $RUT below show the $NDX basically still trading at my first target level with both the $SPX & $RUT still slightly above their respective first downside targets, which are likely to be tagged before any meaningful bounce. If that happens, the $NDX would likely go slightly lower & thereby overshooting this support level by a relatively small margin. Only a solid break below these target/support levels on all three indices would convince me to remove my long hedges as that would likely open the door to a move down to the next target levels. As always, the live links to these charts are accessible from both the sidebar on the Homepage as well as the Live Chart Links page.

Apr 152014
 

The Q’s continue to bounce along support with bullish divergences in place. Until/unless we get a solid break and 60 minute close below the recent lows, this is still an objective area to book some short-side profits and/or take some long exposure (pure-play or hedging).

QQQ 60 minute April 15th

QQQ 60 minute April 15th

Apr 142014
 

Based upon further review of the charts, I have made a slight adjustment to the profit target on the HIMX (Himax Technologies Inc) short trade. Although the actual support level comes in around 8.18, T1 has been changed from 8.20 to 8.30 in order to help increase the odds of a fill when covering this trade as the possibility of a powerful oversold bounce are rapidly increasing.

HIMX is trading down sharply today and is down about 30% since the last posted entry less than 3 weeks ago. Although I may still ad one or more additional downside targets to this trade, my preference will be to book full profits at T1 and possibly add HIMX back as a new short trade if we get a new objective short entry following a decent bounce off the 8.20ish level.

Click here to view the live daily chart of HIMX

HIMX daily April 14th

HIMX daily April 14th

Apr 142014
 

My 4th & final intermediate-term target was hit on Friday. That, coupled with the bullish divergences in place on the 60 minute time frame, means that the 1% gap up today was likely the beginning of a larger counter-trend rally. Blue horizontal lines mark my bounce targets with T2 (86.80) my preferred target at this time & T3 (87.60) my current final target. Only a move 1% or more below Friday’s lows will negate this scenario. Keep in mind that I took us a while to get down here and so it might take several days, possibly weeks, to retrace a third or half of the move down from the March 7th peak in the $NDX/QQQ (my 2nd & 3rd targets come in around the 38.2% & 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the entire move off the highs). As such, the market updates might be light for a while unless anything significant develops.

QQQ 60 minute April 14th

QQQ 60 minute April 14th

Just to clarify, a preferred target on RSOTC is the profit target on a trade which hits the “sweet-spot” on the R/R curve whereas the final target is the level at which the R/R on the trade no longer remains clearly skewed in the direction of that move. Typically, but not always, the final target is the level at which I believe a trend reversal is likely as well. I will often book full or partial profits at my preferred target while I will always book full profits at my final target, assuming that I still hold some or all of the position.

 

 

Apr 142014
 

POWI looks to offer an objective short entry following the break below this beairsh rising wedge pattern. T2 is currently my preferred swing target with a suggested stop over 64.50 (lower if only targeting T1). Although my preference is to establish a short position here, an alternative entry would be on a possible bounce to backtest the wedge from below which is certainly a possibility although not my preferred scenario.

POWI daily April 14th

POWI daily April 14th

Apr 142014
 

As of now, I have two levels on the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) that I am targeting. My preferred bounce target is 86.80 with a minor resistance level at the 85.30-85.35ish level that may or may not come into play.  These targets are based upon several factors including horizontal resistance levels & Fibonacci clusters but I have to say that my degree of confidence in the near-term direction of the market is not high enough to warrant positioning aggressive long or short & therefore, I plan to keep most or all of the QQQ long hedges taken before the close on Friday until the 86.80 level is reached -OR- both the $SPX & $NDX make an impulsive break below Friday’s lows. That plan can change at any time but for now, I’d like to keep things light and just watch the market action as the dust settles from the recent sharp sell-off. I’ll post some updated index charts after the markets opens today.

Apr 112014
 

We now have that lower low that I was leaning towards in the $NDX/QQQ, just like we had when the market bottomed at this support level back in early February immediately before prices exploded up to new all-time highs (see arrows). Although I don’t expect a bounce of that magnitude, nor am I even sure that we will get one, I took precautionary measures to partially hedge my remaining short positions here buy going long the QQQ (via various leveraged derivatives). My plan is to see how the markets follow through early next week before either moving back towards an aggressive short position or increasing my hedges and further reducing my short exposure.  Updated 60 minute chart below.

QQQ 60 minute 2 April 11th

QQQ 60 minute 2 April 11th

Apr 112014
 

FCH (Felcor Lodging Trust Inc) will be added as an Active Short Trade here on the break below this daily rising wedge pattern. Although I typically avoid late day Friday entries, I did take a starter position on the breakdown here. More conservative traders might wait to see some downside follow-thru on FCH next week.

Adding to the longer-term bearish case for this trade, FCH has recently made an over-extended run into key multi-year resistance as shown on the weekly chart below. As I wanted to get this trade idea out asap, I haven’t had time to clean these charts up yet but I do plan to follow-up with a link to a live daily chart which will also list a firm price target (or targets). As of now, I have the target zone that runs from around 7.30 – 7.50 as my sole profit target but again, that may be slightly revised if this trade begins to get some traction.

FCH daily April 11th

FCH daily April 11th

FCH weekly April 11th

FCH weekly April 11th

 

Apr 112014
 

HMN (Horace Mann Educators Corp) was posted as a Trade Setup on Wednesday of this week and went on to trigger a short entry yesterday on a move below 28.33. I’ve added the 200-day ema to this updated daily chart to illustrate how well that moving average has acted as support and resistance, defining the recent up & down trends in HMY. With prices currently sitting on the 200 ema, any solid break below will trigger the next sell signal in the stock and increase the odds of this short trade reaching the price targets.

HMN daily April 11th

HMN daily April 11th

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