RSOTC Weekly Recap 7-2-26

Here is a comprehensive summary of the technical analysis, trade ideas, market commentary, and milestones for the week starting Monday, June 29, 2026, based on the provided data from Right Side Of The Chart.

1. Executive Market Commentary & Macro Context

• Abbreviated Holiday Trading Conditions: Due to the July 4th holiday week, trading volumes are significantly lower. This reduction in liquidity increases the frequency of “whipsaws”—false breakouts, failed breakdowns, and stop-loss raids. Trading activity is intentionally kept light, and technical breaks are viewed with a high degree of skepticism [[01:00:01],].

• Broad Market Consolidation: The major stock indices—particularly the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)—remain locked in a tight, choppy sideways trading range that has persisted for nearly two months [[01:00:01],].

• Market Fragility Indicators: The tech-heavy QQQ continues to display negative price momentum divergence via the RSI and PPO indicators, pointing to a structurally fading uptrend [[01:00:01]]. Furthermore, a dense cluster of readings from a custom variation of the Hindenburg Omen indicator has kept the market on an active “Market Crash Watch” [[01:02:54]].

• The Bond Catalyst: The 30-Year Treasury Yield Index ($TYX) is actively testing a multi-decade structural triple top near 5.0%. A clean, sustained breakout above this level is highlighted as a major catalyst that could severely pressure broader equities [[01:00:01]].

• Precious Metals Outlook: Following a severe vertical “buying climax” and subsequent ~30% drops from their parabolic peaks earlier in the year, gold, silver, and gold mining stocks have systematically retraced to major multi-reaction trendline support zones coupled with prominent bullish positive divergences, setting up highly objective technical bounce opportunities [[01:00:01]].

2. Active Trade Ideas & New Trade Setups

Long Setups & Signals Triggered

• Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS): Following a recent downtrend line breakout, FIS cleared its objective Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BOD) resistance floor at $41.37, triggering a formal next buy signal and serving as an objective long entry or add-on point [[01:02:54],].

• Alibaba Group (BABA): Cleared a long-term structural downtrend line on July 1st, providing a technically objective long entry with a well-defined protective stop placed right beneath the broken trendline [[01:00:01]].

• Trupanion Inc. (TRUP): Triggered a long entry setup on a confirmed breakout above intersecting horizontal price and downtrend line resistance. Due to the proximity of the falling 200-day moving average, a near-term resistance level (R2) has been mapped at $24.46 for potential quick profit-taking [[01:00:01]].

• Crude Oil Futures (/CL / USO): Tracing a clean bullish falling wedge pattern on the 120-minute chart with clear positive momentum divergence. It offers an objective long entry at $69.54 support or upon a definitive wedge breakout, targeting a technical mean-reversion bounce of up to 20% [[01:00:01]].

• AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV): Following a falling wedge breakout and subsequent back-test of support at its 200-day moving average, the stock rallied impulsively higher (+16% on June 30th) from its objective technical support floor [[01:05:27]].

• Gold (GLD / Futures: /GC) & Silver (SLV / Futures: /SI): * Gold dropped roughly 30% from its buying climax to land precisely on dual structural boundaries (a long-term linear uptrend line and the bottom of a major T3 support target zone). Paired with positive divergence, it forms an objective long scaling zone [[01:00:01]].

  • Silver completed a 40% crash from its peak to hit its primary downside targets. It is now exhibiting short-term falling wedge breakouts and positive divergence, signaling a near-to-intermediate-term counter-trend bounce. Futures traders are advised to scale down leverage using micro (/SIC) or mini (/QI) contracts if the main /SI contract multiplier is too large for their account sizes [[01:00:01]].

• Individual Gold Miners (GDX Components): Bullish bounce setups feature high sector-wide correlations, described as “birds of a feather” [[01:00:01]]:

  • Newmont Corporation (NEM): The sector’s “800-pound gorilla” has pulled back right to a clean, multi-reaction uptrend line off its macro lows, showing bullish positive divergence [[01:00:01]].

  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): While breaking its macro uptrend line, it has stabilized on a rigid support shelf at $150.47 dating back to late 2025, offering a bounce opportunity [[01:00:01]].

  • Barrick Gold (GOLD): Exhibits distinct positive divergence at its $36 support floor, targeting a ~20% rally up to $43.50 [[01:00:01]].

  • Kinross Gold (KGC): Facing key support at $22 with positive divergence signaling a potential 25% technical kickback rally/back-test [[01:00:01]].

  • Royal Gold (RGLD): Highlighted as an exceptionally clean technical layout resting on a well-defined uptrend line dating to early 2024 [[01:00:01]].

  • Coeur Mining (CDE): Developing positive divergence within a tight channel; objective long entry targeted at $15.10 [[01:00:01]].

  • Equinox Gold (EQX): Reversing off a major historical support level from 2021 ($9.34), targeting a 27% bounce to $11.77 [[01:00:01]].

  • Osisko Gold Royalties (OR): Resting actively on support with positive divergence, targeting a 15% to 16% trendline back-test [[01:00:01]].

Short Setups & Bearish Rotations

• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Trapped in a sideways trading range between $725.64 resistance and $705.19 support [[01:00:01]]. An alternative scenario gap backfill occurred on June 30th when the index filled its June 23/24 gap resistance, offering an objective short entry or add-on point [[01:05:27]]. A decisive 60-minute candlestick close below $705.19 remains required to trigger the next heavy leg down [[01:00:01],].

• Semiconductor Sector (SOXX / SMH / XSD): The sector finalized massive bearish engulfing candlesticks on the weekly chart at the end of June, confirming a group-wide technical exhaustion top. This offers an objective structural swing short entry point with stops placed above last week’s weekly candlestick highs [[01:00:01],].

• Micron Technology (MU): Triggered a clean technical sell signal by breaking below its dynamic uptrend line off the March lows. It is facing a projected mean-reversion drop of 25% to 50% down toward its 200-day moving average [[01:00:01]].

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Undergoing a technical breakdown and back-test pattern. A break below key support at $501 opens a short target down to its 200-day moving average [[01:00:01]].

• Broadcom (AVGO): Testing a structural triple-confluence zone (horizontal support at $359.50, the 200-day EMA, and a PPO trend boundary). A failure to hold this level opens up a deep structural short target [[01:00:01]].

• Intel (INTC): Has broken below its tight consolidation range and near-term trendline, warning of an impending technical drop straight toward the bottom of its multi-year range [[01:00:01]].

• KLA Corp (KLAC) & Lam Research (LRCX): Equipment manufacturers are acting as the sector’s “canaries in the coal mine.” KLAC faces a critical technical breakdown line at $235 [[01:00:01]].

• ASML Holding (ASML): Flagged on a structural back-test sell signal beneath its primary broken uptrend line [[01:00:01]].

• MicroStrategy (MSTR / Leverage: MSTZ): Tracing a potential bearish continuation flag pattern while tied to spot Bitcoin. A break below the flag increases the odds of deeper price targets (T2–T4) being achieved. For short positioning, the 2x Inverse ETF (MSTZ) is utilized, though traders are cautioned about volatility decay during sideways consolidation phases [[01:00:01]].

• Novo Nordisk (NVO): Rallying into severe technical resistance at its 200-day exponential moving average while showing a notable negative divergence. Long entries require waiting for a clean close above the 200-day line; otherwise, it remains a short candidate [[01:00:01]].

3. Trade Milestones (Profit Targets Hit & Closed)

• Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC): The long swing trade + growth & income trade hit its second profit target (T2), locking in a ~15% profit (inclusive of the $0.40 dividend paid on June 26th) [[01:00:01],].

• Etsy Inc. (ETSY): Hit its second price target (T2) on its daily chart for a massive 42% profit following a prolonged accumulation and back-test phase [[01:00:01]].

• Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN): Hit the bottom of its first technical price target zone (T1 zone) for a 21% profit [[01:00:01]].

• General Mills (GIS): Broke out cleanly from a falling wedge and successfully hit its first upside price target (T1) while paying an attractive 11% dividend yield [[01:00:01]].

• Grab Holdings Ltd (GRAB): The active long swing trade hit its first profit target (T1 at the primary downtrend line) for a 5% profit [[01:01:55]].

• Global Shipping ETF (BOAT): The active short swing trade hit both its first and second profit targets (T1 & T2) shortly after the market open on June 29th, locking in a 10% profit [[01:13:46]].

• Progressive Corp (PGR): Reached a revised final profit target (T1) for a 5% profit. Due to overhead 200-day moving average resistance, all additional targets (T2–T3) were officially canceled, and the trade was archived [[01:00:01],].

• Hormel Foods Corp (HRL): The long swing trade successfully hit its third and final price target (T3) for a 27% profit and has been moved to the completed archives [[01:00:01],].

• Snowline Gold Corp. (SNWGF): Completed a highly successful short-to-long sequence [[01:00:01]]:

  1. The short swing trade hit the top of its T2 price target zone for a 25% profit (following a prior short that pocketed 23%).

  2. Because dual price and uptrend line support signaled a reversal, the short was covered and reversed into a long position, which has already logged a 22% gain upon hitting its first long target (T1) [[01:00:01],].

• CME Group (CME) & Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): Long tactical positions successfully hit their reflexive counter-trend bounce targets during the week and were closed out to protect capital [[01:00:01]].

Associated Web/Video References

• Gold, Silver, & GDX Trade Ideas 7-2-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 7-1-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 6-25-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 6-24-26 Video

• Semiconductor Sector Analysis 6-23-26 Video

• Swing Trade Ideas 6-23-26 Video

Wishing everyone a happy & safe weekend!