This video begins with an overview of two long-term indicators that warn of a significant bear market in the foreseeable future followed by a discussion on not only how to survive, but how to prosper during the next major downtrend in equities. Going forward, the stock market is likely to continue to shift away from the buy & hold + indexing strategy that has worked unusually well in recent years towards a trading & investing environment that will likely be marked by increased sector & asset class rotation while security selection (i.e.- individual stock picking vs. index investing) & tactical asset [...]
Member @natdicarlo posted this inquiry within the trading room: Randy, seeing NYMO at very oversold levels and yet no significant pullback in markets. Big caps masking the carnage. Your thoughts would be appreciated on if this might postpone the bear case for now? That clearly seems to be the case (mega caps doing most of the heavy lifting right now), although I don’t see that as postponing a pullback rather more so an indication that one is most likely coming very soon. As the Nasdaq 100 has been the leading index throughout this entire bull market, gaining approximately 430% since it [...]
A look at the US stock market via SPY, QQQ & IWM followed by the outlook for GLD, GDX & the US Dollar concluding with an overview of various commodities such as oil & agricultural commodities & their related ETFs. The following securities are covered in this order: $NAAD, SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD, GDX, UUP, $DXY, USO, DBC, WEAT & JJG.
Today's sell-off in US equities resulted in some solid technical breakdowns in some of the more volatile indices and sectors, such as the $RUT (Small Caps) and XLK (Technology) while the broadly diversified large cap indexes, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still perched comfortably above their respective primary uptrend lines, albeit looking increasing vulnerable to a significant correction at this time. The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, which falls between the more volatile, lower quality small caps and the more (relatively) stable large caps are very close to, but have not yet broken below its primary uptrend [...]
The $SPX did break below the bottom of the larger wedge (white uptrend line) as draw in the $SPX daily live link chart & updated daily chart posted early today. However, prices have now hit the secondary wedge/uptrend line (purple) which is likely to cause a reaction (a reaction being defined as a pause or short-lived bounce). This is the same pattern that was covered in the $SPX video analysis [...]
As a follow-up to last week's Time To Dump The Trash? commentary, which discussed how the lower quality small crap cap stocks have a history of sharply outperforming the higher quality, large cap stocks (such as those found in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averages) during the final stages of an uptrend, I wanted to share the following chart. This chart essential tells the same story as the $SPX/$NDX/$RUT chart included in that previous discussion but shows a more quantifiable [...]
I've recently discussed two of my most reliable longer-term sell signals: The AAII Bull/Bear Spread Extremes as well as the $NAAD simple trendline buy/sell indicator (click on either to see the previous charts and discussion). In the last update to the $NAAD indicator about a week ago, I pointed out that a sell signal was likely to be triggered soon, which it has as shown in the updated chart below. Regarding the pending AAII Bull/Bear Spread signal, we were waiting for the Bull/Bear Spread to moderate back below the 18%+ extreme level for at least two consecutive weeks, which as the [...]