Technical analysis & swing trade ideas for the week & month ending Friday, July 31, 2026. Trade ideas covered include QQQ, SOXX, TLT, XLF, $VIX, EWC (Canada ETF) & various Canadian banks & tech companies.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/1FM5aX4n4_M

Tickers & Indices Discussed: QQQ, $NDX, SOXX, ADBE, TLT, /ZB, $TYX, $STYX, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, XLF, EWC, RY, SAP, TD, SHOP, T, BMO, CM, BNS, V, $VIX, AMZN, AAPL, $SPX

Week/Month-End Market Wrap & Trade Ideas Summary

In this week- and month-ending closing market wrap for July 31, 2026, Randy Phinney reviews key broad market indexes, key sector ETFs, mega-cap tech stocks, US and Canadian financials, and long-term Treasury yields.

Index & Tech Coverage

  • 00:00 — Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) / Nasdaq 100 ($NDX): Popped into resistance early in the day and faded strongly, closing below the open. The primary long-term trend remains bullish, but the near-to-intermediate term trend is bearish. The breakdown and backtest of the multi-month trading range floor (established around early May) points toward the 4th and final price target zone (T4) coming into reach soon.
  • 06:30 — Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) & Apple Inc. (AAPL): Recap of earnings calls from the previous session. AAPL experienced a significant post-earnings drop of ~8%, overriding fundamental expectations with clear technical breakdown signals. Randy had previously predicted earlier in the week for AAPL to drop following earnings. AMZN showed positive divergence, but no official call was made due to ambiguous technical setup.
  • 06:45 — iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Bounced off T2 support back up to T1 (former support turned dual resistance at the intersection of the downtrend line and 50-day EMA), providing an objective short re-entry or add-on level. The ~15% bounce off T2 followed by a ~6% drop off T1 resistance offers an objective path down toward T3 (~19% downside potential) and T4 near the 200-day moving average.
  • 10:05 — Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Highlighted as a selective tech long setup coming off a divergent low, approaching primary resistance/target levels.

Treasuries & Macro Yields

  • 12:00 — iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) & 30-Year Bond Futures (/ZB): Positive divergences exist on TLT and /ZB, but 30-year yields ($TYX) marginally broke out to multi-decade highs. While a flight-to-safety rally could spark a short-covering bounce in TLT back above the $82–$83 support recovery level, long-term technicals favor rising interest rates and higher yields over the coming years.
  • 12:50 — CBOE 30-Year Treasury Yield Index ($TYX) & 10-Year Yield ($STYX): Detailed historical analysis showing the end of the 40+ year secular bull market in bonds (falling yields) that began in 1981, confirming a new secular uptrend in interest rates.

Financial Sector & Exchanges

  • 29:00 — Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE): Weekly chart breakdown of the secular bull market uptrend line dating back to its 2006 IPO. Offers a long-term trend short opportunity with a 44% profit potential to T3 ($89 level) on the weekly timeframe, building on the active daily swing trade short (T5 target zone at $121–$123).
  • 34:15 — Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) & Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE): Exchange peer analysis showing NDAQ maintaining its primary uptrend line while CBOE shows potential long-term distribution.
  • 35:10 — Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF): Weekly chart exhibits a 3rd divergent high setup. A breakdown of the rising wedge and the $52.50 support level would trigger a broader correction toward the long-term trendline support.

Canadian Market & Canadian Banking Stocks

  • 37:00 — iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (EWC): Trade setup featuring a rising wedge pattern with a sell signal pending a trendline breakdown, projecting a 10%+ drop toward initial support levels by year-end.
  • 39:25 — Royal Bank of Canada (RY): Broke down below its primary uptrend line following negative divergence, providing an objective short entry toward 50-day EMA support and initial price target around $175 (~14% to 17% downside).
  • 41:00 — SAP SE (SAP): Tech component review showing reaction off resistance around the $185 level following a divergent low rally.
  • 42:00 — Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD): Breakdown and backtest rejection off resistance; key support sits at $17.93 and the 50-day EMA. A break opens the door to $99.11 and the 200-day moving average (~20% downside).
  • 43:00 — Shopify Inc. (SHOP): Active short trade recap. After hitting T1, T2, and T3 (~40% gain from short entry), price backtested and was rejected at the 200-day moving average. Trailing stops should be tightened above the 200-day MA while holding for target T4 (~42% drop from the 200-day kiss).
  • 44:55 — AT&T Inc. (T): Rejection off the 200-day moving average following a rally from divergent lows.
  • 45:15 — Bank of Montreal (BMO): Breakdown out of a rising wedge pattern with price targets pointing down to the 200-day moving average and trendline confluence (~13% to 16% downside).
  • 45:48 — Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) & Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): Both showing objective short setups following backtests of broken rising wedge trendlines.

Credit Services & Volatility

  • 46:40 — Visa Inc. (V): Developing objective short setup at historical resistance / previous all-time highs. Formed a bearish rising wedge with negative divergence on both daily and weekly charts, projecting a potential drop back toward the bottom of the multi-month trading range.
  • 49:30 — CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX): Sitting at key horizontal support with positive divergence forming. A volatility spike remains highly probable if equity sell-offs accelerate in tech and financials.