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IWM Stopped Out For Less than 1% Loss + Market Update

IWM has exceeded the very tight suggested stop of 121.65 for a negligible loss of 0.96% (less than 1%) as I continue to prefer unusually tight stops on any counter-trend official trade ideas lately. With the trend indicators flipping back to bullish & none of the major index (SPY, QQQ or IWM) trading below the aforementioned supports yet, I decided against officially extending the suggested stop on this trade but am certainly giving my position some more room, awaiting the same trio of sell signals on QQQ, SPY & IWM before adding & waiting at least until early next week or [...]

2017-03-08T21:19:36+00:00Aug 5, 2016 10:22am|Categories: Completed Trades - Short, Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , |4 Comments

IWM Backtest Likely the Final Golden Shorting Opp

Nice failure on the backtest of this 60-minute wedge so far which, in IMO, will likely prove to be the last golden shorting opp on the  IWM/TNA official short trade with the market likely to start moving sharply lower from here. Again, additional price targets will likely be added to this trade although the suggested stop remains any move above 121.65 which is very close to current levels & just basis points from today's high so far. For those positioning for what could become a longer-term swing trade (beyond the two current near-term official targets), you might want to allow for [...]

2017-03-08T21:19:37+00:00Aug 4, 2016 10:06am|Categories: Completed Trades - Short, Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , |15 Comments

IWM/TNA Trade Setup & Entry

IWM offers an objective short entry here on the break below this 60-minute chart pattern. The two official price targets at this time are T1 at 118.61 & T2 at 117.08 although this trade may be extended with additional price targets added, depending on how the chart play out in the coming days. IWM 60-minute Aug 2nd If my read on the charts is correct, the move down to either of these targets should be relative swift & if so, one could use TZA (3x short small cap ETF) in lieu of an IWM (1x long small cap) or [...]

2017-03-08T21:19:37+00:00Aug 2, 2016 10:15am|Categories: Completed Trades - Short|Tags: , |2 Comments

Sector Short Trade Ideas

For those looking for short exposure or hedges to a portfolio of longs, here are a few of the sector ETFs that stand out as short-side swing trading opportunities. While I may add some of these as official trade ideas, I don't have the time to annotate all the charts & list suggested stops & profit targets right now so I figured that I'd pass these ideas along as unofficial trade ideas at this time for those interested. As usual, my preferences is to short the 3x leveraged version of a sector ETF that I expect to hold for more than [...]

2016-04-27T11:09:56+00:00Apr 27, 2016 11:09am|Categories: Unofficial Short Ideas|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |Comments Off on Sector Short Trade Ideas

TNA/TWM Trade Stopped Out

The TNA short/TWM long trade idea entered on March 4th exceeded the suggested stop of a close above 1130 on the $RUT on Friday, accounting for a 13.7% loss on TNA (or about a 9% loss on TWM). Although this trade will be removed from the Active Trades category & assigned to the Completed Trades, it still appears that the odds for a reversal & substantial correction in the Russell 2000 Small Cap index appears likely as the $RUT is now challenging the downtrend line off the mid 2015 highs with negative divergences in place on this daily chart. [...]

2016-04-18T11:45:28+00:00Apr 18, 2016 11:45am|Categories: Completed Trades - Short|Tags: , |7 Comments

IWM TNA Short Trade Update

Today's Fed-induced rally has the potential to damage the bearish technical case for the TNA/IWM short trade, but hasn't done so yet. In fact, today's marginal new high is another divergent high. Essentially, the small caps have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks, with the IWM/TNA short trade actually still profitable earlier today before the Fed jawboned the markets higher, with the $RUT now trading just over 2% above the March 4th entry price & still comfortably below the suggested stop of a daily close above 1130 in the $RUT (Russell 2000 small cap index). Today's marginal new (recent) high [...]

2017-03-08T21:19:55+00:00Mar 29, 2016 3:07pm|Categories: Completed Trades - Short, Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |8 Comments

IWM Next Sell Signal Triggered, Admin Notes

IWM (Russell 2000 small cap etf) is now clearly trading below the minor uptrend line support level that was posted yesterday, along with confirmation of this additional sell signal via a bearish MACD crossover and 13/33-ema bearish crossover on the 60-minute time frame. IWM 60-minute March 24th I will post some of the intial downside targets for the TNA (3x bullish small cap etf) Active Short Trade later today. You might also noticed some cosmetic & functional changes to the site today as we working on rolling out a new interface to the website. As such, I will be [...]

2017-03-08T21:19:56+00:00Mar 24, 2016 9:45am|Categories: Completed Trades - Short, Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , |2 Comments