I will be spending some time in updating the official short trade ideas today, starting with those trades that have either hit one or more price targets and/or exceeded their maximum suggested stop. Time permitting, I plan to wrap up with a quick video covering all the remaining Active Short Trade ideas & maybe touch on any short trade setups that stand out at this time. Long trade ideas & setups will be updated next. After triggering a short entry on a cross back below the 149.00 level on April 22nd, the AVGO short trade quickly fell to within 3/1oths of [...]
Due to decay from the 3x leverage, the price targets for the ERX (3x bullish energy sector ETF) short are based off the XLE (1x bullish energy sector ETF) chart, with T2 (62.20) as the current final target. Suggested stop on a close above XLE 67.30. XLE daily chart: XLE daily May 18th
ERX (3x bullish energy sector ETF) will be added as an official short trade here (current price 27.81) with XLE (1x energy sector ETF) or DUG (2x bearish energy sector ETF) as alternative options for those not able to short ERX. Price targets, suggested stops, charts & additional notes will follow asap & you can also reference the video posted earlier today for some potential targets on XLE. As with the NUGT short, I just wanted to get this official entry out asap as the possibility of a sharp selloff is elevated at this time.
For those looking for short exposure or hedges to a portfolio of longs, here are a few of the sector ETFs that stand out as short-side swing trading opportunities. While I may add some of these as official trade ideas, I don't have the time to annotate all the charts & list suggested stops & profit targets right now so I figured that I'd pass these ideas along as unofficial trade ideas at this time for those interested. As usual, my preferences is to short the 3x leveraged version of a sector ETF that I expect to hold for more than [...]
ERX/XLE looks poised to run up to some & possibly all of these near-term resistance levels should prices break above this falling wedge pattern. Personally, I'm still keeping things light, trying to refrain from establishing any new positions while the market continues to gyrate within the choppy/sloppy trading range over the last month or so. Swing trading when the market is in a choppy trading range is often quite difficult & frustrating as false breakouts/whipsaw signals are fairly common. During sideways/choppy markets, I find it best to either stand aside and or keep position sizing small while being extra selective on [...]
I have decided to go ahead and book full profits on the ERX/XLE short trade & officially close the trade here at the current price of 58.22. ERX was originally shorted at 67.21 on April 30th, providing this trade a gain of 13.4% in just under a month. Some of the reasons for both personally & officially closing this trade are my previously stated concerns that the bounce in the US Dollar has likely run its course and if so, dollar down = oil up. I've also concerned about the bullish divergences that were put in place on this today's lows [...]
While my broad market calls have sucked wind lately, at least some of the other cylinders in my portfolio are firing thanks to my dollar sensitive assets (energy, commodities, precious metals). The charts below are the scenarios posted for UUP (US Dollar Index ETF) and the EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday followed by today's updated charts. The net result of this bounce in the dollar has resulted in a move lower in energy stocks (XLE, ERX), precious metals & miners (GLD, GDX, etc..) and has spilled over to some extent to other commodities such as the agricultural commodities, such as the [...]