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TNA/TWM Trade Stopped Out

The TNA short/TWM long trade idea entered on March 4th exceeded the suggested stop of a close above 1130 on the $RUT on Friday, accounting for a 13.7% loss on TNA (or about a 9% loss on TWM). Although this trade will be removed from the Active Trades category & assigned to the Completed Trades, it still appears that the odds for a reversal & substantial correction in the Russell 2000 Small Cap index appears likely as the $RUT is now challenging the downtrend line off the mid 2015 highs with negative divergences in place on this daily chart.


For those still short or looking to add short exposure here, the $RUT looks to offer an objective short entry or add-on with a stop on a solid daily close above this downtrend line AS WELL as a solid daily close above 11.84 on QQQ, which is the top of the very technically significant New Year's gap.

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Apr 18, 2016 11:45am|Categories: Completed Trades - Short|Tags: , |7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. snp April 18, 2016 11:52 am at 11:52 am

    I said 2 months ago it didn’t feel bearish. it still doesn’t feel bearish, yet. I’m waiting for the cot reports to turn heavily bearish. they are about half way there.

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    • lee1 April 18, 2016 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm

      I have been saying for some time this was going to all time highs because of the Fed. The market has no fear of interest rate hikes this year (will they even raise one more time?) so institutions know it is still “safe” to put new money to work here.

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      • lee1 April 18, 2016 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm

        Meant to say “poor Paul”…

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    • lee1 April 18, 2016 12:05 pm at 12:05 pm

      Pure Paul been trying to short this for over a month now thinking the market just had to tank but it only keeps going higher as every little dip is bought up. If that is not a bullish market I don’t know what is.

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    • rsotc April 18, 2016 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm

      Logically, it won’t “feel bearish” until the market is falling. Waiting until it “feels bearish” to short or “feels bullish” to go long is what the masses have always done, hence the reason that sentiment indicators often market significant tops & bottoms when at bullish & bearish extremes. Although I’ve moved a lot of my focus away from trying to guess the next near-term move in the broad markets, the bearish case is still very much intact IMO. While the intermediate-term trend is certainly bullish, many long-term trend indicators remain bearish & so far QQQ has yet to take out (move back above) that Dec 31/Jan 4th gap & you have several major indexes such as the SPY & IWM that are challenging key downtrend lines off their 2015 highs. Maybe they take out all of those levels & if so, that will certainly dampen the bearish case but until & unless then, this market will continue to “feel bullish” since that is the near-term/intermediate-term trend. JMHO.

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      • freezer April 19, 2016 9:54 pm at 9:54 pm

        Randy, I like your courtroom analogy you frequently use when making your official trades. You never have an opinion that lacks a solid base of technical evidence. Unfortunately the market is currently O.J. Simpson.

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  2. lee1 April 18, 2016 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm

    When I say I think it goes to all time highs I do not mean it now runs to 3000 on the s+p. Longer term I agree that this market is due for a correction and it is a question of when. Do we get a big correction this year? Perhaps. This run up makes no sense to me from a fundamental perspective but it is what it is so it is tough to get bearish (near to medium term)when the market has been so bullish for 2+ months now where every little dip is bought up. Longer term I would expect this market to tank given poor fundamentals (it is only being lifted higher by an accommodating central bank).

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