Swing Trade Ideas 6-1-26

Here is a comprehensive summary of the June 1, 2026, video update by Randy Phinney from Right Side of the Chart:

Broad Market Overview

• Market Sizing Lines: The major equity indexes are actively testing primary uptrend lines. The presenter highlights that “support is support until broken,” but specifies that a solid 60-minute close—or even better, a daily close—is preferred to confirm true breakdowns and avoid whipsaws.

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF) [00:00:23]: Observed on the 60-minute time frame, tracing its primary uptrend line established off the March 30th lows.

• QQQ & NQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF & Futures) [00:01:32] & [00:03:17]: The Nasdaq index is “walking the line” on similar trend parameters. The presenter views the index as containing “a lot of hot air”. A breakdown below support could trigger a quick 10% decline down to key target zones (T2).

• Crude Oil (USO / CL) [00:04:12]: After reaching ideal support near the $86 level, oil formed a bullish falling wedge and popped. Continued upward momentum in crude is expected to place downward pressure on the stock market.

• TLT (Treasury Bond ETF) [00:05:19]: Long bonds are dropping in price, causing yields to rise. The ongoing decline in TLT and rise in yields is framed as net-bearish for the broader economy and equities.

• IWM (Small Cap ETF) [00:06:24]: Small caps triggered a breakdown signal during the prior week, remaining below their minor trend line with its overall sell signal fully intact.

Semiconductor Sector Analysis [00:06:44]

The presenter reviews the broader sector using two ETFs: SOXX (market-cap weighted, highly concentrated with its top 10 holdings making up 56% of the fund) and XSD (more diversified across 43 holdings). The sector exhibits widespread negative divergences. If key support lines crack, a sector-wide drop of about 30% is anticipated.

• Nvidia (NVDA) [00:08:18] & [00:10:25]: A 60-minute bearish rising wedge is present alongside daily negative divergences. Having hit its first target (T1) near $208 (a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), it staged a brief bounce. The next leg down points toward target T2, marking a roughly 9% to 10% drop from recent levels.

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) [00:13:09]: Exhibits a stark divergent high. Past corrections off similar setups led to 17% and 20% drops. If it fails to hold its current trendline backtest, target T3 sits at the 200-day moving average, implying an eventual 29% to 30% drop.

• Broadcom (AVGO) [00:14:17]: Historical divergent highs for AVGO led to steep pullbacks of 31%, 40%, and 45%. A target backtest of its 200-day moving average implies a 30% correction, aligning with years of building weekly negative divergences and a broadening megaphone pattern.

• Micron (MU) [00:15:55]: Set up with prominent negative divergence below its primary uptrend line.

• AMD [00:16:03]: Features a very steep wedge pattern with clear PPO and RSI negative divergences. It has entered a phase of rolling over after a prior trendline backtest.

• ASML [00:17:11]: Tracking a sequential series of three consecutive divergent highs. The third is traditionally the final catalyst for a major trend reversal. A formal sell signal triggers on a break of its minor trendline, exposing the $1,248 level (a 23% drop) and its 200-day moving average (a 30% drop).

• Intel (INTC) [00:18:47]: Has put in a divergent high and breached its secondary trendline. It needs to break out of its recent consolidation zone to trigger a larger sell signal.

• Lamb Research (LRCX) [00:19:06]: Substantial negative divergence continues to build out below a minor trendline.

• Applied Materials (AMAT) [00:19:13]: Possesses a highly visible primary uptrend line stemming from April 2025. A break below this support suggests a target correction down to its 200-day moving average near $319, showing a potential 30% decline.

• Texas Instruments (TXN) [00:19:58]: Already broken cleanly below its wedge pattern. Its preferred final target sits down at $236–$237, which would fill its underlying gap and mark a 28% drop.

• Qualcomm (QCOM) [00:20:50]: Shows a parabolic advance coupled with a clean trendline and strong negative divergence. It is simply waiting on a formal break below the trendline.

• KLA Corporation (KLAC) [00:21:04]: Sitting on dual price and trendline support derived from April 2025 lows. Breaking support risks a 30% drop down to its 200-day moving average to backfill a large open gap.

• Analog Devices (ADI) [00:22:11]: Displaying a bearish rising wedge breakdown and subsequent snapback rally. It features persistent divergent highs, making it a prime candidate for a short trade.

• Marvell Technology (MRVL) [00:22:58]: Printed a bearish engulfing candle alongside a divergent high. The presenter recommends placing a sell-stop/alert just beneath its recent consolidation lows around $194.72 to catch a definitive breakdown.

• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) [00:24:30]: Displaying a typical sector-wide divergent high setup.

• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) [00:24:38]: Formed an extended, marginal new high with clear negative divergence. Breaking its current trendline exposes downside targets yielding potential drops of 27% (T2) to 34% (T3/Max target at $129.81).

• STMicroelectronics (STM) [00:25:34]: Defined by a clean bearish rising wedge pattern and a clear divergent high awaiting a breakdown.

• Teradyne (TER) [00:25:49]: Already broke below its divergent high and continues to trade cleanly below that broken support level.

• Astera Labs (ALAB) [00:25:59]: Exhibiting a severe divergent high structure.

• United Microelectronics (UMC) [00:25:59]: Showing potential to establish an island cluster top pattern, indicating a looming gap down past its active uptrend line.

• Microchip Technology (MCHP) [00:26:11]: Has broken its trendline and is zigzagging lower. A break beneath $89.75 will expose its next target at $83.25 (an additional 8% drop).

• ON Semiconductor (ON) [00:26:38]: Currently resting directly on its trendline. To confirm a breakdown, look for a definitive daily close below today’s lows (approx. $115.89) to flush out weak hands.

• Credo Technology Group (CRDO) [00:27:54]: Characterized by large historical swings off technical indicators (dropping 59% and 67% off past divergent highs). It has formed a fresh divergent high, signaling the next major downward swing.

• ASE Technology (ASX) [00:28:49]: A smaller-tier semiconductor holding that mirrors the same broad bearish sector pattern.

• MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) [00:29:02]: Triggered a formal trendline breakdown and sell signal. The next minor breakdown confirmation rests on a breach of its recent lows at $339.73.

• Entegris (ENTG) [00:29:25]: Sector peer noted briefly during stock transitions.

• Nova (NVMI) [00:29:32]: Features a long-term uptrend line and price support zone that represents a logical target, mapping out a potential 25% drop.

• Rambus (RMBS) [00:30:02]: Left behind an island cluster top pattern. Any near-term push back toward prior highs will act as a structural extension of its broader negative divergence.

• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) [00:30:32]: Final semiconductor security reviewed, showing clear negative divergence on its RSI.

• VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [00:31:18]: Briefly reviewed via user request; mirrors the exact heavy-weighting and deep negative divergences seen across SOXX.

Market Internals & Sector Divergence Context [00:32:03]

The presenter highlights poor internal market breadth. Historically (such as in late January 2024), when 10 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded below their all-time highs while the index itself pushed new highs, it signaled a major top. Currently, four months have passed since the major non-tech sectors (financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, communications) peaked in January. The broad index gains are largely concentrated within mega-cap tech and semiconductor equities.

Viewer Q&A: Individual Equities & Topics

• Oracle (ORCL) [00:35:08] & [00:37:31]: Software stocks successfully executed a catch-up trade predicted in April. Oracle blasted through its 200-day moving average and hit key resistance with an extreme RSI reading of 80. The presenter states the “run is done” and warns against chasing it, noting a similar overbought reading in the past preceded a 61% drop.

• Volatility Index (VIX) [00:40:13]: The VIX is locked in a bullish falling wedge with positive divergence. Even with the stock market near all-time highs, the VIX is holding a higher low relative to its prior bottom. A breakout in the VIX is expected to line up directly with a breakdown in major equity indexes.

• SpaceX IPO Impact [00:41:25]: Addressing user questions about a heavily rumored historic SpaceX IPO on the Nasdaq. Because it is privately held, it cannot be charted yet. However, since the Nasdaq-100 is market-cap weighted, a company of SpaceX’s size will naturally exert enormous systemic influence on the index once public.

• America’s Car-Mart (CRMT) [00:43:48]: Trapped in a severe secular bear market (down 94% from its 2021 peak). While it shows positive divergence, it remains a dangerous “falling knife” with a risk of bankruptcy. A breakout past its basing pattern could prompt a counter-trend rally up to $17.55 (a 71% move), but extreme caution is advised.

• Avenue Therapeutics (ATXI) [00:46:05]: The chart has completely flatlined at $0.42 with zero volume, indicating a probable bankruptcy filing or private acquisition. The presenter strongly warns against trading or shorting penny stocks due to the high risk of getting wiped out.

• Sunrun (RUN) [00:47:13]: The stock has been locked in a long-term bear market but is carving out a massive bottoming pattern known as an inverse head-and-shoulders. Its key neckline resistance sits at $21.82. If it can decisively break out above this neckline, the measured move of the pattern projects a long-term target of roughly $90 (representing a ~300% rally).

• Microsoft (MSFT) [00:51:00]: Followed a perfect breakout from its April bullish falling wedge when it was left for dead. It has cleared its 200-day exponential moving average but is hitting major horizontal price resistance and its 200-day simple moving average. Combined with an overbought reading and negative divergence, the presenter concludes the run is likely over and recommends harvesting profits.