Early-session technical analysis of QQQ, SOXX, various semiconductor stocks & the Mag 8 market-leading stocks including APPL & AMZN, Treasury bonds, floating-rate ETFs and more.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/5vk_wMIthTI

Tickers & Futures Discussed:
QQQ, /NQ, AMZN, AAPL, SOXX, TLT, TYX-X, TNX-X, IEF, NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, AVGO, META, TSLA, WMT, MU, MSTR, VIX, XLF, SPY, XLK, SH, PSQ, QID, SQQQ, JFR, EVF, VVR, BKLN, AFT, EFR, FCT

Market Analysis & Swing Trade Ideas Summary

In this early-session update for Friday, July 31, 2026, Randy Phinney provides technical market analysis following peak earnings season (highlighted by Apple and Amazon reporting). The discussion focuses on major indexes, tech megacaps, semiconductors, US Treasury yields, and sector rotation dynamics.

  • 01:57 — Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) & Nasdaq 100 Futures (/NQ):
    Following a bullish falling wedge breakout on the 60-minute chart, QQQ hit target T2 (~10% drop from initial trade idea) and bounced due to positive divergence. The current rally back to resistance provides an objective short re-entry zone. Downside targets remain T3 (654.81) and T4 zone (~636.30 / 200-day moving average area).
  • 02:17 — Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN):
    Showed a post-earnings pop driven by positive divergence on the 60-minute and daily charts. No active call was made pre-earnings, but the stock has bounced back toward resistance near its previous all-time high trendline.
  • 02:41 — Apple Inc. (AAPL):
    Confirmed the bearish wedge breakdown call with a post-earnings selloff, breaking below key support at $316.92 and failing its previous all-time high breakout. Morning strength on today’s gap up at the open offers an objective short entry/add-on opportunity on QQQ targeting a move back toward the 200-day moving average.
  • 07:24 — iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX):
    Detailed breakdown of the weekly and daily charts. A high-probability bearish engulfing pattern and PPO crossover on the weekly chart just over a month ago triggered a ~29% move down to target T2 ($533.12 on the daily chart). After a brief & expected bounce off yesterday’s hit of T2, SOXX is back at dual resistance (downtrend line + T1 level), presenting a favorable risk-reward short entry with a ~6% stop loss targeting T3 ($464.78, ~19% gain) and ultimately the 200-day moving average / long-term uptrend line (~27% downside).
  • 16:24 — Treasury Yields & Bond ETFs (TLT, TYX-X, TNX-X, IEF):
    Analysis of rising long-term yields as TLT hits new lows and 30-year ($TYX) and 10-year ($TNX) yields push higher following recent Fed rate policy commentary. IEF is breaking down below its triangle pattern support line.
  • 21:48 — NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA):
    Holding at critical support at the bottom of its consolidation range/purple zone (~$189) near the 200-day moving average. A daily close below $189 triggers a major sell signal, while current levels reflect temporary support.
  • 26:09 — Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL):
    Backtesting its broken primary uptrend line and 200-day moving averages. A breakdown below horizontal support at $375.25 would signal further weakness toward lower targets.
  • 27:27 — Microsoft Corp. (MSFT):
    Backtesting its broken uptrend line and holding near the 200-day simple/exponential moving averages. Remains vulnerable to downside pressure if index-level selling accelerates in QQQ.
  • 29:26 — Broadcom Inc. (AVGO):
    Ranging between purple support and resistance zones. Key support at $359.50 and the 200-day moving average delineate the bullish/bearish threshold.
  • 30:16 — Meta Platforms Inc. (META):
    Exhibiting a sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. Currently resting near horizontal support with slight positive divergence, though broader technical posture remains tilted downward & has the potential to ‘negate’ the current divergences, especially if META takes out the key March 27th reaction low by a solid margin.
  • 34:44 — Tesla Inc. (TSLA):
    Extremely oversold RSI conditions following a post-earnings drop. While the broader trend is bearish, the deep oversold state presents potential for a ~12% counter-trend bounce toward $337.86 (gap fill area), assuming the broad market & QQQ hold up next week.
  • 43:38 — Walmart Inc. (WMT):
    Broke its primary blue uptrend line from late 2023 and lost its 200-day moving average, confirming a sell signal with lower technical price targets ahead.
  • 45:53 — Micron Technology Inc. (MU):
    In a technical downtrend following a divergent high sell signal. Price target remains a retest of its 200-day moving average and primary uptrend line (~32% remaining downside potential).
  • 49:11 — Strategy Inc. (MSTR):
    Active short trade setup. The stock remains on a sell signal below resistance, with long-term downside targets driven by potential deleveraging pressures.
  • 49:53 — CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) & Financial Sector (XLF):
    $VIX continues to form a base with positive divergence. XLF is testing minor uptrend support; a breakdown below $56.51 and the secondary trendline would confirm a failed breakout and likely trigger a broader spike in market volatility.
  • 53:30 — Inverse Market & Short ETFs (SH, PSQ, QID, SQQQ):
    Overview of non-leveraged (SH, PSQ), 2x leveraged (QID), and 3x leveraged (SQQQ) instruments for managing market downside exposure.
  • 55:32 — Senior Floating Rate Loan Funds (JFR, EVF, VVR, BKLN, FCT):
    Brief examination of credit quality deterioration in senior loan/floating rate funds as they break key support and 200-day moving averages.