Pre-FOMC & MSFT/META earnings technical analysis & swing trade ideas on QQQ, SOXX & various semi stocks, XLF, $VIX, META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, SPCX, & more.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/qm5gP-SNC5M

Below is a summary and technical breakdown of the market indexes, semiconductor sector, big tech earnings, and individual securities covered in the Swing Trade Ideas 7-29-26 market update video.

Market Overview & Key Securities Breakdown

  • 06:08 – Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) & /NQ FuturesSummary: The Nasdaq 100 hit its second price target (T2) today for a 10% gain off the breakdown of the primary uptrend line. A brief reflexive counter-trend bounce is expected due to building positive divergences and a bullish falling wedge pattern on the 60-minute chart. However, intermediate-term convictions remain focused on T4 (~636 level), which aligns with the 200-day moving average. Maximum expected bounce on QQQ is capped around the ~720 level before another potential leg lower.
  • 07:44 – Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (CME FedWatch Tool)Summary: Discussion of market expectations leading into the Fed rate decision. CME FedWatch Tool showed a 66.3% probability of holding rates steady (3.50%-3.75%) and a 33.7% chance of a rate hike (3.75%-4.00%). The Fed ultimately held rates unchanged at 2:00 PM.
  • 21:48 – Semiconductor Sector ETF (SOXX) & Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X (SOXS)Summary: The semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 30% off its recent highs over the past month. SOXS has gained roughly 125%-130% off its June 30th low. SOXX recently hit T2 support. Support levels once broken become resistance; a pullback/bounce to T1 resistance would offer an objective short re-entry point. The final downside target (T4) on SOXX implies an additional 23% downside.
  • 25:08 – NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)Summary: Flirting with key purple support at the confluence of its 200-day moving average and the bottom of its recent trading range. NVIDIA reports earnings later next month (8/26/26), but near-term price action will be heavily influenced by CapEx spending commentary from big tech earnings.
  • 26:57 – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM)Summary: Broke below $419 support and hit T1 support following a clean sell signal from a divergent high. Calling for a continued move down to the 200-day moving average. Any bounce back toward the primary uptrend line or $419 level serves as overhead resistance.
  • 28:05 – Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)Summary: Backtesting key support at the purple zone (~359.50 level), which represents horizontal price support and the 200-day moving average. A solid break below this level would be technical bearish confirmation.
  • 28:38 – Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)Summary: Broke the bottom of its recent topping pattern/trading range. Expecting a continued decline of ~28%-30% down to the primary long-term uptrend line and 200-day moving average, with potential for a momentum-fueled overshoot down to the 476.60 level.
  • 31:51 – ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)Summary: Hit price target at 1538.15 following a breakdown from a bearish rising wedge and a loss of the 1731 level and 50-day moving average. Currently resting on support; a breakdown opens up lower targets, while a bounce offers an objective short re-entry.
  • 32:45 – Intel Corporation (INTC)Summary: Hit T1 support after a failed breakout above its multi-month trading range, yielding a ~39%-40% gain from the short entry. Expecting a continuation lower into the gap support, 200-day moving average, and primary uptrend line.
  • 34:22 – Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)Summary: Broke below its primary purple trendline following a divergent high and secondary breakdown, triggering a strong technical sell signal. PPO is hovering near the zero line at key support.
  • 34:43 – Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)Summary: Reached its 200-day moving average target following a divergent high, representing a ~41%-42% decline from the peak. Currently oversold at support.
  • 35:23 – Arm Holdings plc (ARM)Summary: Testing key price target at 238.00 with the 200-day moving average just below. A breakdown below 238 opens the door for a deeper correction to subsequent support targets.
  • 36:15 – Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)Summary: Testing horizontal support around 275.00. Downside targets remain at 259.85 followed by 236.80 at the 200-day moving average, representing a ~30% correction from the highs.
  • 37:35 – Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) & S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Summary: XLF recently made a marginal, divergent new high that is expected to fail. A move below 56.50 and its trendline off the June lows will trigger a sell signal, targeting horizontal support and the 200-day moving average (~8% downside). The strength in financials has kept SPY near all-time highs while QQQ has corrected.
  • 40:05 – CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX)Summary: The VIX has broken out of its consolidation wedge, signaling potential for an expansion in market volatility if big tech earnings or Fed post-meeting reactions disappoint.
  • 42:22 – Big Tech Earnings Predictions (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) [42:25]: Neutral/Low confidence bearish call. Resistance at the purple zone (~447-450) and 200-day moving average; key support at 341.12. Both levels offer objective short entry setups on a rally or breakdown.
    • Meta Platforms (META) [44:03]: Low-to-medium confidence bearish call. Stock is in a downtrend below its 200-day moving average and continues to get rejected at its daily trendline off divergent highs.
    • Apple Inc. (AAPL) [45:06]: Bearish call. Demonstrating bearish technical posture across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Watch for a failure below 316.92 support targeting the 200-day moving average at ~276.86 (~20% downside).
    • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) [46:16]: Low-to-medium confidence bearish call. Trading flat in a multi-year range, dipping below its 200-day moving average with the daily PPO crossing below the zero line.
  • 47:40 – Space Exploration Technologies Corp / SpaceX (SPCX)Summary: Long trade setup remains intact following a breakout and textbook backtest of the downtrend line on the 30-minute chart, supported by a daily bullish engulfing candle. Reached T2 (117.00 level). A sustained break above 117.00 targets T3 (121.39), T4 (125.00), and T5 zone (~130.20) for an ~18% gain. Stop can be maintained below recent lows.

Tickers Discussed:

$SPX, $NDX, $VIX, /NQ, /ES, QQQ, SOXX, SOXS, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, ASML, INTC, AMAT, LRCX, ARM, TXN, XLF, SPY, MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN, SPCX