Swing Trade Ideas 7-8-26

Here is a detailed summary of the “Swing Trade Ideas” video published on July 8, 2026, by Randy Phinney from Right Side of the Chart.

Precious Metals & US Dollar Overview

• Gold ETF (GLD) / Spot Gold ($GOLD) [03:17]: The recent pullback is identified as a return to the “third target zone,” which acts as strong price support rather than a true technical breakdown. The near-to-intermediate-term outlook remains bullish for a counter-trend bounce trade coming off a divergent low on the 60-minute and daily charts, though the longer-term outlook remains bearish following a prior parabolic blow-off top.

• Silver ETF (SLV) / Spot Silver [08:12]: Silver pulled back past its final target zone and overshot slightly into a solid support/buy zone. It is noted as an excellent mean-reversion asset that ultimately follows the trend of gold.

• Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [09:02]: The miners are sitting right at the “T2” support level with positive (bullish) divergence. The previous short position was closed because gold hit support. Falling crude oil prices (~$74/barrel) are noted as a net tailwind lowering input costs for miners. A scaling-in buy plan down to but not below $67 is maintained.

• US Dollar Index (UUP / DX) [13:31]: The dollar index successfully back-tested its breakout support after hitting its first target. However, it is forming a bearish rising wedge with negative divergence. A potential breakdown in the dollar would serve as a net bullish tailwind for gold and silver.

• Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD) [25:50]: The Euro is sitting at decent support with bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rally that would conversely force the US dollar lower.

• Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar (JPYUSD) [26:34]: Despite the Yen recently marking major multi-decade lows, technical indicators imply an imminent trend reversal or pullback, which would also weigh down the US dollar index.

Individual Gold Mining Components

• Newmont Corporation (NEM) [15:50]: The “800-pound gorilla” of the sector features a clear uptrend line paired with a bullish divergence at support.

• Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) [18:09]: Intraday, it broke beneath its $150.50 price support. If it manages a quick recovery, it will trigger a powerful buy signal fueled by a failed breakdown/shorts covering.

• Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) [20:04]: Bouncing off support around the $103 level with extended positive divergence.

• Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) [20:41]: Experiencing an intraday “stick save” recovery back onto its technical support level.

• Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) [20:52]: Staging an intraday reversal back above key support lines.

• Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) [21:26]: Approaching solid price support near $22.08.

• Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) [21:30]: Highlighted as a personal favorite mining stock that typically “rocks” when silver moves.

• Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) [22:28]: At support with positive divergence.

• Hecla Mining Company (HL) [22:28]: At support with positive divergence.

• Coeur Mining (CDE) [22:28]: At support with positive divergence.

• Iamgold Corporation (IAG) [22:37]: At support with positive divergence.

Global Bonds, Yields, & Inflation Metrics

• Global Bonds Context [01:35] / [27:56]: Multi-decade or all-time highs in bond yields (such as the Japanese 40-year bond and the UK 30-year Gilt recently hitting 1998 highs) are co-existing with stock markets near all-time highs—a historic market anomaly.

• US 30-Year Treasury Yield ($TYX) [28:34]: The 30-year yield is within “spitting distance” of breaking out past a triple-top resistance at 5.15%. Higher lows suggest the risk is skewed toward an upside breakout, which historically serves as a major headwind for equities. The Federal Reserve has effectively lost control of the long end of the yield curve.

• iShares Commodity Index Trust (DJP) / Invesco DB Commodity Fund (DBC) [39:28]: Commodities represent the single best real-time indicator of inflation. They have consistently put in higher highs since ending a secular bear market in 2020, pointing to sticky structural inflation.

Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)

• Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) [43:01]: Long-term monthly charts show a massive multi-year negative divergence building near all-time highs. A breakdown beneath its primary trendline could trigger an ultimate 44%–45% drop to the $64.50 level over a year or two. Shorter-term [47:24], it is currently dancing on daily support near $114.

• Amazon (AMZN) [48:26]: After a brief bounce from its 200-day moving average, there is little left to like structurally in the chart.

• Tesla (TSLA) [48:40]: Watching a key primary uptrend line; a breakdown would severely drag on the broader market.

• Home Depot (HD) [48:52]: After a 25% rally off its perfect wedge breakout, it repeatedly failed to clear its 200-day moving average resistance. It has since dropped 7% and is exhibiting a bearish PPO crossover.

• McDonald’s (MCD) [52:40]: Possesses a positive divergence but is pinned under a downtrend line. It is a sit-and-wait asset that could look attractive if it drops to $262.

• TJX Companies (TJX) [53:21]: Retesting a multi-year uptrend line and its 200-day moving average simultaneously. It is flashing a bear flag pattern that targets a ~10% drop down to a support zone around $78–$86 if the level breaks.

• Booking Holdings (BKNG) [55:40]: Trapped in a bearish trend, zigzagging lower while staying capped below its 200-day moving average.

• DoorDash (DASH) [56:16]: After perfectly hitting all three long upside targets from its March entries, the rally was rejected at the 200-day moving average, and it has broken its minor uptrend line.

Broader Stock Market & Futures

• • Nasdaq 100 Futures (/NQ) / Invesco QQQ (QQQ) [58:27]: Pre-market breakdown beneath the $705 support level on QQQ gave a clear sell trigger. Any intraday pushback toward the lost support or the nearby minor uptrend line offers an objective short entry.

  • Trading Range Noise [01:00:53]: While intraday volatility is high, the broader market remains locked within a sloppy, sideways two-to-three-month trading range during the low-volume post-July 4th holiday doldrums.

  • Downside Targets [01:01:48]: If /NQ takes out its recent intraday lows, the doors open to subsequent support targets at 28,525, followed by a deeper multi-month range back-test coinciding with target four (“T4”) on the official QQQ short trade. Any short-term rally to new highs would still be capped by severe lagging negative divergences.