Short Swing Trade Ideas 1-28-26

Here is a summary of the short-swing trade updates and market indices analyzed in the video by Randy Phinney from Right Side of the Chart:

Market Outlook & Key Indices

• Broad Market Sentiment: Phinney describes the current stock market as “foaming at the mouth bullish,” with analysts heavily weighted to the long side. However, he expects a major correction triggered by key upcoming catalysts, including half of the “Magnificent 8” reporting earnings within 24 hours, alongside a critical Fed meeting.

• Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) [02:47]: Currently stuck in a multi-month sideways trading range, forming marginal and divergent new highs. Finny anticipates a breakdown from this range that could lead to a 12% drop down to the T2 price target.

• S&P 500 (SPY) [06:51]: Seeking out marginal, divergent all-time highs similar to previous failed breakouts. A break in its current trendline will likely trigger the next technical correction.

• Volatility Index (VIX) [07:36]: Considered an exceptional risk-reward (RR) trade with a potential 260% to 433% upside compared to roughly 28% downside, as it sits at the bottom end of its multi-year support zone.

• Russell 2000 / Small Caps (IWM) [15:58]: Large divergences are building after small caps recently outperformed the Nasdaq. Finny anticipates a potential 12% drop back down to its primary uptrend line.

Individual Securities Covered

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

• ZSL (ProShares UltraShort Silver) [11:03]: Currently flat near the entry price (~$1.63). Phinney is waiting for silver’s parabolic uptrend line to break, which would confirm a long-term sell signal and provide high profit targets.

• PEJ (Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment) [33:04]: Stuck in a divergent double top. Pavlovian “dinner bell” buying occurs right at its 200-day moving average, but Finny expects a break below the 200-day MA to accelerate a slide toward lower targets.

• XRT (SPDR S&P Retail ETF) [39:28]: Broke below a bearish rising wedge pattern and hit its T1 zone before bouncing back into a marginal high. It is technically on a sell signal, with an estimated 11-12% near-term drop to the bottom of its trading range (~$77.30).

Stocks

• SIG (Signet Jewelers) [17:47]: Hit its first price target quickly before bouncing back to its 200-day moving average. Phinney notes that a firm break below this technical line opens the door for a 27-28% drop to its fifth potential target.

• TOST (Toast Inc.) [21:22]: This short trade recently triggered its sell signal, cleanly falling below the 200-day moving average and breaking past target T3. Taking out this level shifts technical momentum toward an additional 13% decline.

• OPEN (Opendoor Technologies) [23:51]: Currently testing its T2 support level ($5.58) following an earnings-induced decline. If the 200-day moving average breaks, it enters range for a new potential T4 target.

• LLY (Eli Lilly & Company) [25:08]: This stock hit its initial T1 target zone as a hedge before pushing higher. It has newly triggered a confirmed divergent high breakout and is rolling downward.

• CIEN (Ciena Corporation) [28:59]: Moving sideways around the original short entry point. Phinney maintains three distinct downside targets representing up to a 34% drop, provided it fails to break above its recent daily highs.

• TPR (Tapestry, Inc.) [29:33]: Broke its primary uptrend line and 200-day moving average cleanly. Negative divergences have expanded rather than faded, hinting at a 40% absolute drop toward its final price targets.

• V (Visa Inc.) [31:25]: Trading below its 200-day moving average and sitting exactly on T4 support. A definitive break lower on a daily close increases the probability of hitting lower targets for an added 10% decline.

• FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp) [32:06]: Set up as a fresh short scenario following a bearish engulfing candle structure. Finny expects the stock to break downward alongside regional banking peers (KRE).

• AGO (Assured Guaranty Ltd.) [34:05]: Entered a bearish rising wedge breakdown and pulled below its 200-day moving average. Phinney anticipates a break under $80.22 to clear the way for a 19-20% drop to T5.

• SHOP (Shopify Inc.) [35:27]: Rejected lower from its initial rising wedge and came down to its 200-day moving average line. Breaking the bottom boundary of its T1 zone should trigger a swift 32% leg down.

• MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.) [36:10]: Heavily tied to Bitcoin (which Phinney views via IBIT). Phinney anticipates a short-lived bounce before a broader 30-37% downward flush to its final target zone before flipping to a long position.

• CVNA (Carvana Co.) [37:46]: Showing steep negative divergence lines at its multi-month highs. Experienced a sharp down-day ahead of its mid-February earnings, which could easily fuel a 51% correction if T1 support breaks.

• FHN (First Horizon Corporation) [38:47]: Stalling out below overhead resistance. Phinney is looking for a move below $23.64 to initiate standard downside targets when the regional banking sector begins to turn over.