The following video & summary provide technical analysis & swing trade ideas, including objective entry levels & price targets, on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), semiconductor sector (SOXX), and the financial sector & key stocks (XLF).
YouTube link: https://youtu.be/wXAa9EIuGKw
This technical analysis video by Randy Phinney of Right Side of the Chart provides a comprehensive mid-session market update for July 17, 2026. The presentation focuses on the “Point of Recognition” in the markets, highlighting bearish technical developments in the Nasdaq 100 and Semiconductor sectors, while sounding a warning for the Financial sector, which currently holds up the broader market.
Market Indexes & Sectors
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Nasdaq 100 Futures (01:12) ($NQ): Phinney highlights that /NQ hit its first target zone this morning. He identifies a potential bounce target zone between 28,941 and 29,232. However, he remains long-term bearish.
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Nasdaq 100 ETF (04:35) ($QQQ): On the 1-minute chart, Phinney notes an objective short entry or add-on if the current intraday uptrend line breaks. On the weekly chart, a bearish PPO crossover is forming. Historical data suggests this could lead to a 13% to 26% correction, with a price target at T4 (approx. 15% drop from highs).
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PHLX Semiconductor Sector (10:02) ($SOXX): The semiconductors have already triggered a weekly bearish PPO crossover. Phinney notes a current 24% drop from recent highs and maintains a target of further downside, warning against “chasing” the bounce unless the 200-day moving average is recovered.
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Financial Select Sector SPDR (14:04) (XLF): Phinney emphasizes that the stock market truly won’t break until the Financials do. XLF is showing large negative divergences on the daily & weekly charts at this marginal new high. He highlights a bearish rising wedge pattern on the 60-minute chart with a sell signal on the financial sector to come on a solid break below it.
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CBOE Market Volatility Index (19:28) ($VIX): The VIX is displaying a bullish falling wedge with positive divergence. Historically, similar setups have led to 50%+ spikes in volatility when the financial sector finally buckles.
Individual Stocks
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (16:48) (JPM): Displays long-standing negative divergence with a sell signal to be triggered if the key support level of the primary uptrend line & 200-day moving average (206-$210 range) is taken out.
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Visa Inc. (18:18) ($V): Following a successful short to the final price target (T6) & reversing from there, Visa has returned to test its all-time highs with a divergent high. A break of the rising wedge pattern is the objective short signal.
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Mastercard Inc. (18:41) ($MA): Similar to Visa, MA is showing a clean 60-minute bearish rising wedge with negative divergence.
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Bank of America Corp. (19:03) (BAC): Testing a major support level at 52.63, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and primary uptrend line. A break here would be a significant bearish catalyst.
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Morgan Stanley (19:26) (MA) has already broken below its uptrend line & backtested it (now resistance) from below with the next support at 99.30 and the 200-day MA.
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Goldman Sachs Group (19:48) ($GS): Testing a steep uptrend line with significant negative divergence.
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Wells Fargo & Co. (19:54) (WFC) Pullback targeting the 83.00 level, coinciding with price support and the 200-day moving average.
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American Express Co. (20:24) ($AXP): Forming a bearish rising wedge. Phinney’s long-term target is T5, representing an approximate 30% drop from recent highs.
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Citigroup Inc. (20:46) ($C): Currently “walking the line” of its minor uptrend. A decisive break next week would confirm the bearish sector-wide thesis.
Risk Management & Position Sizing (20:30)
Phinney concludes with a lesson on position sizing. He recommends beta-adjusting positions for volatile assets like SOXX or leverage ETFs by using reduced position sizing while increasing position sizing for low-volatility assets like Treasury bonds (TLT, /ZB).
Ticker Symbols Discussed:
/NQ, QQQ, SOXX, XLF, VIX, JPM, V, MA, BAC, MS, GS, WFC, AXP, C, TLT, /ZB