Updates on various swing trade ideas, including Bitcoin, MSTR, SOXX, QQQ, $VIX, and more, along with several trading tips & other considerations to make when swing trading or investing.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/LJHnuB4YlQ8

Gemini AI summary:

Video Summary: Right Side of the Chart (May 14, 2026)

Speaker: Randy Phinney

Core Theme: Patience and the “Wait for Your Pitch” philosophy. Phinney emphasizes that while the broad markets and semiconductors are overextended, definitive daily sell signals (trend line breaks) have not yet been triggered.

Topics & Timestamps

Timestamp Topic / Security Key Technical Notes
1:54 The VIX (Volatility) Phinney notes a higher low in the VIX despite the S&P 500 making new highs—a classic bearish divergence for equities.
6:51 Bullish Falling Wedge Identifies this pattern on the VIX; notes historical rallies of 100%+ following similar setups.
7:47 QQQ & XLK (Tech) Highlights primary uptrend lines from the March lows. Notes Tech is 33% of the S&P 500, meaning the index won’t fall until Tech breaks.
9:30 Semis (SOXX, XSD) Analysis of extremely well-defined uptrend lines. Phinney is waiting for a daily close below these for a high-confidence short.
11:22 Indirect Hedges Suggests using Long TLT (Treasuries) and Short Crude Oil to offset risk while waiting for equity sell signals.
16:55 Leverage ETF Math Education on “decay” in 2x and 3x ETFs; explains why they are best for unidirectional moves, not sideways markets.
28:57 Carvana (CVNA) Mentioned as an objective re-short opportunity that has already begun to move lower.
29:09 Japanese 10-Year Discussion on global bond breakouts; Phinney struggles to find a “positive spin” for the economy regarding these higher rates.
35:46 Wheat (Commodities) A long-term setup Phinney has watched for over a year that is finally starting to break out.
46:17 MicroStrategy (MSTR) Describes MSTR as a “leveraged play on Bitcoin.” Warns of a potential “vicious cycle” if redemptions force them to sell their Bitcoin holdings.
55:34 Bearish Rising Wedge Specifically identifies this pattern on the MSTR chart, paired with negative divergence on indicators.
59:56 Bitcoin (BTC) Notes that Bitcoin is currently at resistance (~81,200) and remains a “risk-on” asset correlated with the Nasdaq.

Key Trade Ideas & Analysis

  • The VIX/Equity Divergence: Phinney compares the current market posture to the start of the 2022 bear market. He points out that the VIX is “waking up” but won’t fully ignite until the price trend lines on the QQQ and SOXX are broken.

  • Managing Short Positions: He acknowledges that shorting the current “rocket ship” rally has been difficult. He suggests staying light on position sizes and using beta-adjusted hedges (like TLT) to stay in the game without getting “chewed up” by volatility.

  • The “Ponzi” Warning on MSTR: Phinney expresses skepticism toward MicroStrategy’s use of preferred shares to buy more Bitcoin, suggesting that if T3 (his third price target) is hit, it would likely coincide with a massive forced liquidation of Bitcoin by the company.

  • Execution Strategy: He stresses the importance of Daily Close confirmations. He mentions a recent “whipsaw” on the 60-minute charts that trapped some shorts, reiterating that the daily timeframe is more reliable for significant trend changes.