Swing Trade Ideas 6-4-26

Broad Market Indices & Technical Overview

• QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) Update

  • **** The index is experiencing a decent intraday bounce-back and pushing close to flat.

  • **** Randy emphasizes that despite the bounce, a clean breakdown sell signal is in place as support has been broken.

  • **** The next objective short entry or add-on level is the daily gap back-fill at roughly 744.

  • **** Looking at the daily chart, the breakdown would only be invalidated as a “whipsaw” or failed breakout if it prints a solid close back above the dynamic, positively sloped trendline.

• SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) & ES (S&P 500 Futures)

  • **** SPY clearly broke down a couple of days prior and remains well below its well-defined uptrend line from the March 30th lows.

  • **** Randy views the intraday snapback rally (which pushed the S&P green) as an objective shorting entry opportunity as long as the sell signals remain intact.

  • **** Technical indicators, sentiment, and extreme put-to-call ratios are noted as factoring into a broader correction or potential bear market setup.

Market Sectors & Industry ETFs

• SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF)

  • **** Randy reviews the semiconductor sector on the daily chart, noting it previously suffered an 11% drop off its high followed by a breakdown.

  • **** The semis have been back-testing a purple trendline under a large negative divergence, keeping the sector on a valid sell signal.

  • **** If the final downside target is met, it implies a total drop of about 40% from the highs.

• XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund)

  • **** The financials executed a “stick save” the previous day, dropping below the crucial $51 support level before rallying to close right on it.

  • **** XLF is attempting to poke above a near-term downtrend line, but Randy expects this minor breakout to fail.

  • **** Because XLF remains above $51, it is not an “all-in aggressive” shorting moment yet; he wants to see financials firmly break below yesterday’s lows to confirm the broader market drop.

• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index)

  • **** The VIX is displaying a “beautiful bullish falling wedge” pattern.

  • **** Because financials are the second largest component of the S&P 500 (and are absent from the Nasdaq 100), the VIX likely won’t spike until the financials (XLF) finally break down.

Cryptocurrencies & Related Stocks

• Bitcoin (BTC)

  • **** Bitcoin recently hit the targeted major price support level of 58,628 on its three-year daily chart.

  • **** Randy points out a potential, unconfirmed positive (bullish) divergence forming at this price support.

  • **** Because momentum indicators (RSI and PPO) are still pointing straight down, a bullish crossover is required to confirm the divergence, which could set up a nice short squeeze/bear market rally.

• Ethereum (ETH)

  • **** Looking at the five-year daily chart, Ethereum is sitting at a potential uptrend line and price support zone.

  • **** Similar to Bitcoin, it features an unconfirmed positive divergence at support where buyers might step in.

  • **** While entering at support is objective, a definitive buy trigger or signal will only occur on a confirmed breakout above its near-term downtrend line.

• MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.)

  • **** MicroStrategy is discussed as a direct proxy to the Bitcoin strategy trade.

  • **** Exactly a month ago (May 4th), a short sell signal was issued on a break below its 60-minute uptrend lines when it was trading at $182.32.

  • **** The stock hit its 60-minute price target of $124.86, yielding a 30% profit so far.

  • **** While it is currently at a support zone ripe for a bounce, it still maintains much deeper downside targets on the daily chart if Bitcoin enters a broader meltdown phase.

Macro Perspective: The Margin Debt Unwind

• **** Randy warns of what he believes is a relatively imminent macro margin bubble debt unwind.

• **** Looking at charts tracking the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 bear market, massive surges in margin debt consistently peak right into major market tops.

• **** Historically, the resulting margin unwinds have caused severe 55%+ drops in the major indices.

• **** To prove this macro unwind has fully begun, the indexes will at least need to drop below and take out their 200-day moving averages.

Commodities & Financial Exchanges

• CBOE (CBOE Global Markets) & CME (CME Group)

  • **** Randy reviews these two financial exchange trade ideas.

  • **** CBOE successfully hit its first price target at an intersecting trendline and horizontal price resistance level.

  • **** CME overshot its support due to momentum but is sitting on roughly 6% gains if traders choose to take profits.

  • **** CME’s 60-minute chart shows a potential bear flag; breaking its minor uptrend line would trigger a powerful measured downward move.

• Wheat & TIL (Teucrium Agricultural Strategy ETF)

  • **** Wheat broke below a near-term trendline that Randy was watching for a pullback re-entry.

  • **** The next major support area is further down at a solid “W” bottoming/basing pattern, where traders should place a stop slightly below.

  • **** To safely spread risk across agricultural commodities (wheat, corn, sugar, soybeans), Randy highlights the TIL ETF, which is currently sitting right on a strong support level of 17.42.

• UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) & Crude Oil

  • **** UNG continues to flirt with its first target zone but is successfully zigzagging its way upward toward higher additional targets.

  • **** Crude oil remains a choppy, sideways “dead money” trade, but Randy notes the stock market is currently ignoring these highly elevated energy prices.

Packaged Foods Sector (Selective Stock Picking)

• **** Randy transitions to the packaged food sector pocket of long trade ideas.

• **** He favors a “shotgun approach”—buying a half-dozen to a dozen select stocks he likes rather than trading a sector ETF, as some stocks look great while others look like short candidates.

  • KHC (The Kraft Heinz Company): Came close to its first target but ran into resistance at its 200-day moving average. Do not add to positions until it reclaims its trendline.

  • GIS (General Mills, Inc.): Setting up with positive divergence on the chart, though it hasn’t officially taken off yet.

  • HRL (Hormel Foods Corporation): Entered pre-breakout, running into its 200-day moving average for a 16% profit. It is currently consolidating in a potential bull flag/pennant between the 200-day SMA and horizontal support at 23.20.

  • PPC (Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation): Setting up a bullish falling wedge at support. It is a buy down to 26.62 or on a breakout above the downtrend line.

  • CPB (Campbell Soup Company): Displaying positive divergence and has taken out a minor downtrend line. Randy targets a move up to its 200-day moving average, offering an approximate 23% profit potential from the breakout.

  • CAG (Conagra Brands, Inc.): Still an active trade, but hovering right above its suggested maximum stop-loss on a daily close below 12.50 (currently trading at 12.57).

  • LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.): Executing a standard breakout and back-test against its trendline. Clearing its secondary downtrend line will trigger the next buy signal back up to the 200-day moving average zone.

  • BYND (Beyond Meat, Inc.): A low-priced stock that previously captured a 77% to 81% profit. It has pulled back and is coiling tightly under heavy resistance; it needs to pop above 0.83 to run.

  • USNA (USANA Health Sciences, Inc.): Charting a clear breakout and back-test pattern.

  • BGS (B&G Foods, Inc.): Not a primary favorite in the sector; it needs to firmly break above the 5.67 level to trigger upside potential.

  • HAIN (The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.): A low-priced stock coming off a nice divergent low that previously rocketed to a final target for a 135% gain. It is currently waiting to clear a near-term downtrend line to trigger its next move.

• **** Randy concludes the video by restating that he is trading off the 60-minute and daily charts for QQQ and SPY, and the current technical breakdowns represent the definitive market sell signals he has been waiting on for weeks.