Swing Trade Ideas 4-13-26

Here is a comprehensive summary of the market update from Right Side of the Chart, tracking the indexes, sectors, ETFs, and specific stocks discussed:

Commodities & Macro Economic Context

• Crude Oil (CL / USO): The host uses a long-term monthly chart dating back to the mid-90s to explain a “magic threshold” for oil around $78. Once crude oil stays above $78 or reaches around $90–$100, it historically limits upside in the stock market and acts as an indirect hedge against stock indices. [01:16]

• Crude Oil Futures (CL): On the 60-minute chart, a minor support level is identified at $97.87. A break of the newly added uptrend line would signal a move lower. [05:08]

• United States Oil Fund (USO): This tracks crude oil closely. Another choice highlighted for non-IRA accounts to avoid K-1 tax forms is ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK). USO peaked around noon on the day of the recording, perfectly correlating with the stock market reversal. [06:40]

Major Stock Indices

• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): The Nasdaq 100 had broken down from a 6-month sideways trading range but bounced back up into it, making the breakdown a “false breakdown.” Key overhead resistance sits between $614 and $617. Below the range, there is a large gap to fill and an uptrend line sitting near the 200-day exponential moving average. [08:27]

• Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ): On the 15-minute swing chart, a bearish negative divergence pattern is forming. Traders should watch the newly added short-term minor uptrend line. A break below it would target the intersection of the primary trend line around 24,938–24,940. [22:28]

• S&P 500 Futures (ES): Looking at a 10-minute chart, a minor trend line break could lead to a retest of support levels, notably around 6,780. Gaining back below these levels would negate the recent bounce and rethreaten the 200-period moving average. [54:02]

• Russell 2000 Futures (RTY): This is tracking a bearish rising wedge pattern with overbought conditions on the hourly chart. Breaking down would confirm a failure back below the previous downtrend line. [55:07]

Sector Spotlight: Technology & Software

The host heavily favors the software sector (iShares S&P GSTI Software Index Fund – IGV) for potential long setups or portfolio hedges because it exhibits deep positive divergences after being left for dead by market sentiment. [12:15]

Key Sector Stock Components Explored:

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): The largest cap weight in the sector ($2.8T) broke out of a bullish falling wedge pattern on the daily chart and successfully back-tested its trend line over multiple days. [15:05]

• Oracle Corp. (ORCL): The second-largest sector piece shows strong positive divergence on both the RSI and PPO indicators over its marginal lows. However, it is actively back-testing an old uptrend line from late 2022 and its 50-day moving average from below (treating it as overhead resistance). [18:21]

• Salesforce Inc. (CRM): Possesses positive/bullish divergence on the daily chart with a downtrend line triggering a breakout. Adjusted upside targets sit at $190.50 and $206, with a maximum target testing its 200-day moving average (about 30% upside). [20:02]

• Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW): Rebounded from support but is not highlighted as a favorite chart due to recently getting rejected right at its 200-day moving average. [20:46]

• Intuit Inc. (INTU): Shows a highly bullish “bear trap” or false breakdown recovery at a key historical support floor. It has a clean downtrend line to potentially break out toward upside targets of 11% to 30%, though a breakdown in the broader market or an oil spike could pull it down another 20% to its monthly secular bull market trend line. [20:57]

• Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Shows a clean downward channel line that has recently popped with positive divergence. An key overhead target is set around $284.80. [27:00]

• ServiceNow Inc. (NOW): The stock popped roughly 6.5% on the session, bouncing off historical support with strong positive divergence. A first major overhead price target is marked at $95.58 (roughly 11.5% higher), with a secondary target near the 200-day moving average (~40% upside). [28:44]

Individual Trade Short Ideas

The host introduces a thematic concept called “Subscription Fatigue”—predicting that when the consumer economy weakens, users will quickly downgrade or cancel luxury monthly recurring services. This brings specific targets into the crosshairs: [44:21]

• Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Falling 44% from its divergent highs, the stock is currently in a technical bear market. On the weekly chart, it has dropped below its 40-week exponential moving average and is testing the 40-week simple moving average. On the daily chart, a bearish rising wedge is clear. Ahead of earnings, a shorting zone is identified up to major horizontal resistance at $107.67, with a longer-term weekly downside target sitting 33% lower. [29:57]

• Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT): Pointing to its daily chart, the company has officially broken beneath its 200-day moving average, signaling the end of its bull cycle and the start of a new structural bear market. It is exhibiting a clear weekly divergent high and a bearish rising wedge. If economic data worsens, a potential 75% eventual drop from its highs is modeled. [46:46]