Swing Trade Idea 11-18-21

This video from Right Side of the Chart provides a technical analysis market update, analyzing broad indexes, specific sectors (energy and financial), commodities, and bonds, highlighting major bearish indicators.

1. Major Market Indexes & Crypto Assets

• S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) & SPY ETF [00:00:46]

  • Analysis: A primary trend line breakdown triggered a sell signal. Markets remain on a secondary sell signal following a trend line violation and subsequent back-testing at previous highs. Negative divergence remains intact.

  • Targets (ES): $4587, $4545, with a potential short-term bounce at $4627.

• Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) [00:02:54]

  • Analysis: Testing previous highs above its secondary uptrend line, but exhibiting a steeper negative divergence on the 60-minute chart, indicating an impending drop.

• Russell 2000 Small Cap Futures (RTY) [00:03:48]

  • Analysis: Triggered a sell signal via a bearish rising wedge, leading to a ~4% decline. Currently back-testing broken support at 2383, creating a new objective short entry.

• Bitcoin Futures (BRR) & Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) [00:05:59]

  • Analysis: Undergoing a correction following a divergent high and breakdown of a secondary uptrend line. GBTC broke below $46.43, offering a short swing setup.

  • Targets (GBTC): ~$41.44.

• Ethereum ETF Type Instrument (ETHY) [00:08:20]

  • Analysis: Experienced a failure of a breakout on a bearish rising wedge, confirming further downside potential.

2. Commodities & Forex

• Coffee Futures (KC) & iPath Coffee ETN (JO) [00:08:41]

  • Analysis: Long-term resistance breakdown on the 60-minute chart confirmed a solid sell signal. JO prints a bearish engulfing candlestick, indicating a double-digit percentage correction long-term.

  • Targets (JO): $58.82, with an ultimate target down near $47 (a potential 30% drop).

• Euro Currency Exchange [00:19:18]

  • Analysis: Extremely oversold with a positive divergence following hot U.S. CPI numbers. Building a long position on a trend line back-test.

  • Targets: $1.1441 and $1.1545.

3. Fixed Income / Bonds

• 5-Year Note (ZF), 10-Year Bond (ZN), & 30-Year Bond (ZB) [00:20:30]

  • Analysis: Broadly bullish on bonds as they lift off oversold levels on the RSI with clear positive divergence. Expected to rise concurrently with a pullback in equity markets.

  • Target (ZN): At least $131.258.

4. Energy Sector

• Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [00:12:17]

  • Analysis: One of the most bearish sectors in the S&P 500. Weekly charts show a massive negative divergence at long-term back-tested resistance.

• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) [00:14:36]

  • Analysis: Heavy sector weight testing a major multi-year broken support level that has flipped into resistance. Shows negative divergence across the PPO, RSI, and histograms.

  • Outlook: Setting up a 3:1 risk-reward short aiming for an eventual 30% decline.

• Chevron Corp. (CVX) [00:17:03]

  • Analysis: Sitting at a significant long-term downtrend line stretching back to late 2017 amid overbought conditions.

• Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP) [00:18:14]

  • Analysis: Leveraged inverse alternative to shorting XOP. Exhibits positive divergences.

  • Targets: $20.70 (37% rally from current levels) and $12.25.

5. Financial Sector

• • Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) [00:21:20]

    • Analysis: Countering mainstream fundamental arguments of rising rates helping banks, technical indicators show a massive, multi-month bearish rising wedge on the weekly time frame.

    • Targets: $35.15 and $31.35 (a ~21% drop).

  • KBW Bank Index (BKX) & SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) [00:34:03]

    • Analysis: BKX exhibits a broken wedge targeting $115.46. Regional banks (KRE) show a marginal new high that has extended an existing deep negative divergence.

  • Individual Components Market Cap Overview: [00:26:20]

    • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Flirting with a primary multi-year bull trend line. A firm weekly break targets $141 near-term and $119 long-term.

    • Bank of America Corp. (BAC): Back-testing its primary bull trend line with deep weekly negative divergence.

    • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B): Already starting to crack below its secondary uptrend line.

    • S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): Technically on a confirmed sell signal after breaking below its trend line and rolling over. Targets a 38% drop back to its 2009 primary trend line.

    • U.S. Bancorp (USB): Failed breakout setup sitting directly on its trend line. Targets $54.45 and $47.00.

    • PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) & Truest Financial Corp (TFC): Clean, well-defined uptrend lines with expanding negative divergences waiting to break.