I arrived back home last night after a long trio of flights back from Kauai. I also just returned home from my son’s high school graduation ceremony about 30-minutes ago but just wanted to get a brief update out with regular analysis & trade ideas to resume tomorrow.

Equities (stock market):

Pretty much more of the same while I was out last week poor market internals as just a handful of big tech stocks do nearly all the heavy lifting. For the week, the strongest index was the Nasdaq 100 gaining about 3% while the S&P 500 only managed to eek out a gain of 1.35% (less than half of QQQ) and the Russell 2000 Small-cap index gaining about half of that at about +0.73%). The equal-weighted indices showed further evidence of the continued lack of participation by the “most of the stocks” (poor internals/market breadth) with the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 only gaining half of cap-weighted $NDX at less than 1.5% with the equal-weighted S&P 500 nearly flat on the week at a 0.32% gain, nearly a quarter of the $SPX.

Essentially, the major stock indexes, other than the abnormally top-heavy Nasdaq 100, were basically flat to slightly higher. Looking at the price action in the $NDX (QQQ) over the past week, it appears to be at least a near-term blow-off top which may have bit more to go or not (the latter more likely IMO) that may have ended with Friday’s intraday high. The US stock futures (S&P 500, Russell 200, etc.. are all trading slightly negative as I type with the Nasdaq 100 slightly green (+0.04%) so we’ll have to wait & see if the RP Vacation Indicator once again plays out for another market reversal. Again, more in-depth analysis to resume tomorrow.


The ETHE (Ethereum Trust) short trade made a near-perfect tag & reversal off my third price target (T3) on Friday (which was technically the first day of my vacation) with the next sell signal/objective short entry to come on a solid break below it (8.00). GBTC (Bitcoin Trust) also hit the bottom of my 2nd target zone on Friday with the next sell signal to come on a break below Friday’s lows. I still favor the additional downside targets on both, again charts to follow tomorrow.

Gold, Silver, & Euro/US Dollar:

Those negative divergences in gold, silver, GDX, & EUR/USD continued to play out although several of the aforementioned trade ideas hit some of the initial downside targets on Thursday while oversold on the near-term indicators. While gold & silver futures are currently trading lower as I type (11.09 pm EST), I’d give it slightly favorable odds that the bounce that started on Thursday’s lows carries over into next week although I do favor at least one more leg down in the coming days to weeks at this time.

Natural Gas:

Those bullish divergences & buy signals (false breakdown/bear trap) I highlighted on /NG natural gas futures & UNG the week (and preceding?) week before I went on vacation continued to play out although /NG rallied up to what I believe was the upper-most near-term target on the 60-minute charts I was covering (I’d have to check my videos and/or chart screenshots to verify) around the 2.70 level. Not only was that my final near-term target but /NG also put in negative divergence on the 60-minute time frame on Friday as well. Therefore, a 32% rally in just 2-weeks, into resistance & with negative divergences, to boot, most likely will result in a pullback this week. However, the daily charts remain constructive & as such, I will follow up tomorrow with objective re-entry points for a swing or trend long position in nat gas.

Treasury Bonds:

Playing out as per the most recent analysis from the week before I left with the 10-year yield ($TNX) rallying off support & /ZB (30-yr T-bond futures) breaking down below that recently highlighted trading range to hit that 127’020 downside target on Friday (and still basically right above that level now). Again, I plan to do a much deeper dive into the charts tomorrow & will expand on my thoughts but as for now, I’d say the odds favor a near-term bounce off that 127’020 although a break below Friday’s low is likely to usher in more selling.

On a final note, my apologies for both the late update as well as the lack of updates while I was on vacation. Our trip was packed full of excursions…land sea, & air; driving around the island, lunches, dinners, etc.. The few times I glanced the markets on my phone, I didn’t see anything compelling & figured I would post a more comprehensive update when we returned. Our flight left Kauai at 8 pm Thursday night & 3 planes later, landed in Fort Myers after 5 pm Sat only to come home to several issues at home (AC & close dryer not working plus some more) that had to immediately attended to. That, followed by my son’s graduation & pre-party (I skipped the after-party tonight to get this out), left me with less time to post an update than I expected.

Thank you for you patience & understanding,