• AGNC - Jan 24 201420140124
  • ANR - Oct 15 201420141015
  • CORN - Nov 17 201420141117
  • KOL - Sep 25 201420140925
  • LL - Oct 22 201420141022
  • MCP - Oct 08 201420141008
  • $Platinum - Nov 21 201420141121
  • PPLT - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SGG - Nov 21 201420141121
  • SOYB - Nov 17 201420141117
  • USO - Nov 20 201420141120
  • WLT - Nov 05 201420141105


Active Trades – Long

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. E.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Nov 212014
 

PPLT (Physical Platinum Shares ETF) offers an objective long entry on this breakout above the bullish falling wedge pattern. T1 is the sole target at this time with additional targets likely to be added soon, depending on how the charts play out going forward. Suggested stop below 117.64 or higher if targeting only T1 although longer-term traders & investors might consider a scale-in strategy with higher price targets & wider stops.

With the $USD still in an uptrend and GLD currently still attempting to solidly take out the 115 level, more conservative traders & investors might opt to wait for those aforementioned events (dollar reversal & a confirmed GLD breakout) to occur before establishing a position. We’ve also yet to see a confirmed, end-of-day breakout in $PLAT (spot platinum prices) although keep in mind that the spot charts below are EOD (end-of-day) and reflect yesterday’s closing prices. Platinum futures are currently trading up nearly 2% so a close above the downtrend line on the daily spot chart below today is likely, barring a reversal into the close.

Daily chart of PPLT along with the daily & weekly charts of $PLAT (end-of-day spot platinum prices) below. Besides PPLT & futures, there are several other options for trading platinum although these are all thinly-traded ETFs: PGM, PTM, PLTM, LPLT, & SPPP. Click here for information on PPLT.

Nov 212014
 

SGG (Sugar ETF) will be added as an Active Long (swing) Trade & Long-term (investment) Trade here around the 41.45 level with a suggested stop slightly below the recent low of 39.55. Targets TBD. Daily chart of SGG and weekly chart of $SUGAR (spot sugar prices) below:

Nov 202014
 
USO 120 min Nov 20th

USO 120 min Nov 20th

USO (Crude Oil ETF) has broken above the bullish falling wedge pattern on the 120 & 60 minute time frames, thereby triggered the second, more conventional entry or an add-on to an existing position taken inside with wedge. I’ve added a minor horizontal resistance at the 28.95 level which, if cleared, would further increase the odds of this breakout sticking.

Nov 182014
 
USO 120 minute Nov 18th

USO 120 minute Nov 18th

USO (crude oil ETF) was added as both a semi-aggressive long entry on Thursday with the expectation of an upside breakout of this bullish falling wedge pattern as well as a Long Trade Setup with a more conventional entry to be triggered on an upside breakout of the wedge. Since Thursday, prices have continued to drift slightly lower (about 50 cents) within the wedge but remain well within the typical breakout range of a bullish falling wedge pattern. As discussed in the recent Crude Oil, Coal & US dollar video, the success of this trade hinges largely on a reversal in the dollar.

The specific price targets (suggested sell levels) have been added to this updated 120-minute chart of USO. Price targets for long-side trades are set slightly below the actual resistance level (i.e.- where a reaction is likely) in order to help increase the odds of missing a fill, should the trade reverse just shy of resistance. Suggested stops would be based on at least a 3:1 R/R from the average entry price to the preferred price target(s).

Nov 172014
 

The SOYB (Soybean ETF) long trade hit the second target for a 13% gain last week. T3 (the downtrend line) remains the next target with the potential for additional targets to be added soon. As previously discussed, my preference on this trade is to use the charts of $SOYB (soybean spot prices) in lieu of SOYB (the soybean tracking ETF) in determining the entry & exit points on the soybean ETF as the ETF is thinly traded and the charts are not as clear. As with the other agricultural commodity trade ideas, SOYB has the potential to morph into a longer-term trend trade/investment depending on how they trade going forward. Previous & updated daily charts of $SOYB below:

Nov 172014
 
CORN daily Nov 17th

CORN daily Nov 17th

As I’ve spend some time away from my desk over the last few weeks, there are quite a few trade ideas in need of updating. As most of these trade updates are not time sensitive, email notifications will not be sent out on the remainder of the updates.

CORN (Corn ETF) hit the second price target last week. Although the odds of a pullback and/or consolidation around this level are elevated, T3 remains the final target at this time. As prices are still trading in close proximity to the Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. If holding out for T3, an objective stop would be below the 25 area (assuming an entry on the wedge breakout). Updated daily chart shown.

Nov 132014
 

USO (Crude Oil ETF) will be added as a semi-aggressive Active Long Trade here around the 28.75ish level. The reasoning behind this trade is based on several developments that have been recently discussed here. First of all, I continue to believe that the US Dollar is poised for a major trend reversal and the inverse relationship between the dollar & crude is highly correlated (dollar down, crude up & vice versa). Secondly, crude (as shown in the USO weekly chart below) has fallen to the bottom of a major multi-year support zone while at oversold levels (weekly RSI reading of 21.54) not seen since the plunge in crude prices during the late 2008/early 2009 meltdown in the financial markets. As recently discussed, every oversold reading for at least the last decade has either accompanied or slightly preceded major rallies in crude prices, ranging from 36% to 178%.

Zooming down to the 120-minute period chart, USO is rapidly approaching the apex of a fully mature bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences in place. The fact that I have decided to go long crude while prices are still trading within the wedge makes this a somewhat aggressive trade. More conventional traders might opt to wait for a confirmed breakout above the wedge before establishing a long position. The first four price targets are shown on the 120-minute chart with the exact suggested sell limit levels along with the suggested stop(s) to be added soon. Based on the case made for an impending trend reversal in the US Dollar as well as a possible trend reversal in crude prices based on my analysis of the weekly charts, USO has the potential to morph into a Long-Term Trade with additional price targets to be added, depending on how both the dollar and crude trade in the coming weeks & months.

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