• AGNC - Jan 24 201420140124
  • ANR - Oct 16 201420141016
  • CORN - Sep 11 201420140911
  • KOL - Sep 25 201420140925
  • MCP - Oct 08 201420141008
  • SOYB - Sep 12 201420140912
  • WLT - Oct 16 201420141016


Active Trades – Long

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. E.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Oct 162014
 
WLT 60 min Oct 16th

WLT 60 min Oct 16th

The WLT (Walter Energy Inc) aggressive Long Trade Setup that was posted yesterday went on to break out above the 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern (triggering an entry) and just hit the first target, T1 at 1.99, for a very quick 10% profit. T2 at 2.59 is my preferred target at this time but as always, consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops, depending on your own unique trading plan. Updated 60 minute chart of WLT (another coal stock):

Oct 162014
 
ANR 60 min Oct 16th

ANR 60 min Oct 16th

The ANR aggressive long trade setup that was posted yesterday triggered an entry on a break above 2.04 today. Official targets have been added just below the same resistance levels shown on yesterday’s 60 minute chart. T1 is the sole target at this time but additional targets may be added. The suggested stop if targeting T1 would be just below the 2.04 former resistance, now support level. Updated 60 minute chart below. I also wanted to reiterate that ANR, like many of the recently mentioned US coal stocks, has the potential to morph into a much longer-term, bottom play, should we get sufficient evidence of a bottom in these stocks. Therefore, an aggressive longer-term trader or investor could certainly start scaling in here with a stop below the recent lows or depending on their average cost basis as they continue to scale in (my preference would be to only continue scaling in if the recent lows are not violated).

Oct 152014
 

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. WLT (Walter Energy Inc) will once again be added as an aggressive Long Trade Setup on a break above this 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern. T2 (2.59) is the current preferred target at this time with a final target (T3) at 4.17. Stops will be determined upon entry.  As with the previous WLT long trade, Walter Energy, along with several other US Coal stocks, has the potential to morph into a long-term term trade or bottoming play. However, we just don’t have enough technical evidence at this time to make that case with a high degree of confidence although I have been observing some recent bullish price action in other coal stocks, such as ANR (also shown on the 60 minute time frame below, as this stock has recently broken above this descending price channel & will also offer an objective long entry once the 2.04 resistance level is clearly taken out). Target levels are marked but the suggested sell prices will follow.

 

On a related note, I wanted to clarify or really expand on my previous comments about hedging against short positions. For weeks now I have made a case for a reversal in the $USD and a bullish case for select commodities including gold/gold mining stocks, wheat, corn, soybeans and select US coal companies. I continue to believe that these are some of the most promising trade ideas heading into the 4th quarter & likely well into 2015 and as such, although they are not considered typical hedges against short positions in US equities, they very well could prove to be if things play out that way (dollar down, commodities up). That has certainly been the case recently with precious metals and those commodities (and commodity producers) exhibiting very strong relative strength against equities. In this sense, I am running a quasi-hedged portfolio or at least a long/short portfolio, since it is not directly hedged via equity index futures, call options or bullish ETFs against my short positions.

Oct 082014
 
MCP 60 min Oct 8th

MCP 60 min Oct 8th

The MCP (Molycorp Inc) trade has now hit the 2nd target for a quick 16% gain. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops if holding out for any of the additional targets. Although the price action on MCP has been very bullish since the breakout, I have yet to see the other rare earth stocks that I follow acting bullish. In fact, MCP is the only stock in my rare earths watchlist even trading positive today and therefore, I am more concerned with protecting gains by tightening up stops and may change the final target to this trade to T3 (1.70) & might possibly close the trade before then unless the other rare earths start to catch a bid very soon.

Oct 062014
 
MCP 60 min Oct 6th

MCP 60 min Oct 6th

MCP (Molycorp Inc) has hit the first target for a quick 7% gain. MCP was posted as a Long Trade Setup on Thursday afternoon & went on to trigger an entry on a break above 1.37 later that afternoon. At this time I’m only viewing MCP as a quick oversold, counter-trend trade based off the intraday chart although the stock is starting to exhibit some early signs of a possible near-term 0r better bottom in this low-priced, rare earth stock. If I continue to see bullish developments in both MCP as well as the rare earth sector, MCP has the potential to morph into a longer-term trade with a target of at least 2.40.

Once again, unlike most of the trade ideas posted on RSOTC, I have only listed the actual resistance levels on this 60 minute chart vs. the suggested sell limit level, which are typically set slightly below the actual resistance level in order to minimize missing a fill, should the stock reverse just shy of resistance. As of now, this chart still looks constructive & a move up to any of the next three targets (1.60, 1.70 & 1.81) seems likely at this time. With that being said, consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising your stops, depending on your trading plan.

Oct 022014
 
MCP 60 minute

MCP 60 minute

After months of relentless selling, MCP could provide a quick trade to any of these near-term targets on this above-avg. breakout above the 60 minute downtrend line. Those three horizontal lines are the actual resistance levels, best to set your sell limit orders a few cents below your preferred target(s). The entry criteria for this trade will be the NEXT move above the 1.37 level. Prices just broke above the downtrend line as I started typing this post, pulled back to the trendline, and have yet to follow-thru. In order to minimize the chances of going long on a false breakout (such as that 9/15 candlestick wick poking above the trendline), I’d like to see that recent spike high of 1.37 taken out before establishing a long position. A few near-term targets & suggested stop parameters shown on this 60 minute chart.

Note: this is a very aggressive, counter-trend trade. As always, DYODD and trade according to your own risk tolerance & trading style.

Sep 252014
 

KOL (Market Vectors Coal ETF) will be added as an AGGRESSIVE Long Trade & Long-Term Trade idea here around the 17.24 level. I’ve pointed out this long-term basing pattern in KOL recently and I’ve been following several of the individual coal stocks with interest lately, as they are in what looks to be the final stages of being “puked-up” by frustrated longs throwing in the towel and finally writing many of these companies off for good. I am fully aware of the environmental issues the coal industry faces and even some of the unique aspects within the US coal industry (e.g.- cleaner burning Appalachian coal vs. the “dirtier” but cheaper sulfur-laden Illinois basin coal). Here’s a link to an informative overview of the US coal industry for those who might be interested in this “catch a falling knife” trade.

Fundamentals aside, the technical case for an aggressive long entry here for either a bounce trade or very likely, a bottom in the coal stocks can be made from these two charts below. The first chart is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones US Coal Index, showing what appears to be an Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern in the making. Keep in mind there is still quite a bit of work to be done on this pattern, first & most importantly would be to see prices reverse very soon in order to finish putting in a right shoulder (i.e. – a move back up towards the neckline of the pattern), while keeping the symmetry of the pattern intact.

Also included below is the daily chart for KOL, showing that prices are approaching the bottom of the 15+ month basing pattern while extremely oversold. Buying this support with the appropriate stops below seems like a very objective entry although keep in mind that many of the individual coal stocks in a virtual death spiral, under extreme distribution and in such instances, it is not uncommon to see a substantial but relatively brief overshoot of support. As such, my preference taking a position here as a potential long-term/bottoming play would be to use a stop criterion of three consecutive weekly closes below the 17.00 level. That should allow enough time for any temporary, momentum driven overshoot of support to regain the bottom of the long-term basing pattern, assuming that this is indeed a selling climax in the coal sector.

 

 click here for the live, annotated weekly chart of $DJUSCL       click here for the live, annotated daily chart of KOL 

I also have a short list of my favorite individual names in the coal sector which I might also add as official trade ideas soon. That list includes CLD, OXF, YZC* (a Chinese coal stock), WLT, NRP, ACI, &  BTU. I can not stress enough the risk involved in buying any of these individual coal stocks as most are still in free-fall and the risk of bankruptcy on any of these names in the near future is certainly a possibility. With coal still being the cheapest energy source and a presidential election coming up (lost coal jobs = lost votes, hence, I would expect some pandering/support to the US coal industry from both parties in the very near future), my guess is that even if the coal industry is going the way of the prehistoric plants & animals that created it, the extinction of the US coal industry isn’t going to happen overnight.

On a final note, my preference for positioning into the individual coal stocks as potential bottoming or even just “oversold bounce” trades is to use a shotgun style, scale-in approach: buying very small lots in each of the individual names above over the next several weeks, only bringing my exposure to the sector to a “full position” once we get some fairly decent evidence of a trend reversal. As always, DYODD and only consider trades that align with your own risk tolerance, objectives & trading style.

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