As a follow-up to today’s previous “What I’m Watching For Today” post:
To summarize a few of the key points from yesterday’s market wrap-up video, here are a few things that I’ll be watching for today in order to either keep my near-term bearish outlook intact or dampen it, should these events fail to occur with the markets continuing to build on yesterday’s gains:
a move back below the 130-ema on the 60-minute time frame(CHECK) as well as the 106.80 level. (CHECK) Also a move back below the zero line on the MACD signal line as well as the 13-33 ema (those two might take a day or so to occur, assuming the recent bounce is faded). (STILL PENDING, although we did get a bearish crossover on the 60-minute MACD today).
- SPY : 60-minute time frame-
Failure at the purple minor downtrend line shown of the recent (4/20) highs(CHECK) as well as a move back below the 207.00 level(CHECK) & ultimately the 130-ema (PENDING). As with the QQQ, a cross back below the zero line on the same two 60-minute trend indicators (PENDING), which also might take a couple of days. (PENDING but also a bearish cross on the 60-minute MACD today)
- GDX & GLD: Both need to close below their respective wedge patterns on the daily time frames today. (PENDING)
- UUP: Today’s pop in GLD & GDX (but surprisingly not oil) is most likely due to the fact that the dollar is trading lower, which is almost certainly due to the fact that $DXY/UUP closed right at those downtrend lines/top of the falling wedge patterns that were highlighted. This pullback, so far, is simply a reaction from the initial tag of resistance from below. UUP has support at 24.25 which I would expect to contain any pullback in the dollar, followed by a continued move higher & the dollar ultimately breaking above that falling wedge pattern, which should bring down GLD, GDX, USO, XOP, XLE, etc.. (PENDING- Dollar still trading down following yesterday’s initial tag of the downtrend line although UUP held & bounced off the aforementioned 24.25 support to the exact cent so far).