What I’m Seeing So Far Today

As a follow-up to today's previous "What I'm Watching For Today" post:

To summarize a few of the key points from yesterday's market wrap-up video, here are a few things that I'll be watching for today in order to either keep my near-term bearish outlook intact or dampen it, should these events fail to occur with the markets continuing to build on yesterday's gains:

  • QQQ: a move back below the 130-ema on the 60-minute time frame (CHECK) as well as the 106.80 level. (CHECK) Also a move back below the zero line on the MACD signal line as well as the 13-33 ema (those two might take a day or so to occur, assuming the recent bounce is faded). (STILL PENDING, although we did get a bearish crossover on the 60-minute MACD today).
  • SPY : 60-minute time frame- Failure at the purple minor downtrend line shown of the recent (4/20) highs (CHECK) as well as a move back below the 207.00 level (CHECK) & ultimately the 130-ema (PENDING). As with the QQQ, a cross back below the zero line on the same two 60-minute trend indicators (PENDING), which also might take a couple of days. (PENDING but also a bearish cross on the 60-minute MACD today)
  • GDX & GLD: Both need to close below their respective wedge patterns on the daily time frames today. (PENDING)
  • UUP: Today's pop in GLD & GDX (but surprisingly not oil) is most likely due to the fact that the dollar is trading lower, which is almost certainly due to the fact that $DXY/UUP closed right at those downtrend lines/top of the falling wedge patterns that were highlighted. This pullback, so far, is simply a reaction from the initial tag of resistance from below. UUP has support at 24.25 which I would expect to contain any pullback in the dollar, followed by a continued move higher & the dollar ultimately breaking above that falling wedge pattern, which should bring down GLD, GDX, USO, XOP, XLE, etc.. (PENDING- Dollar still trading down following yesterday's initial tag of the downtrend line although UUP held & bounced off the aforementioned 24.25 support to the exact cent so far).
2017-03-08T21:19:47+00:00 May 11, 2016 2:17pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Forex (Currencies), Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |12 Comments


  1. schooner May 11, 2016 2:30 pm at 2:30 pm

    Good update. Thanks


  2. GetItRiight May 11, 2016 2:33 pm at 2:33 pm

    Thanks for this.


  3. pangblood May 11, 2016 2:37 pm at 2:37 pm

    great summary, it’s very surprising how DXY pushed below 93.8 and has since been unable to break above it and hold


  4. GetItRiight May 11, 2016 2:46 pm at 2:46 pm

    You can add to that IWM going below support of 111.7x.


    • rsotc May 11, 2016 2:57 pm at 2:57 pm

      Absolutely, I have a key S/R level at 111.80 on my IWM 60-minute which way also temporarily regained in yesterday’s “whatever.” rally, along with so many other key levels on the major US stock indexes, only to be quickly lost again today.


  5. GetItRiight May 11, 2016 3:04 pm at 3:04 pm

    Do you see the same low volume in today’s pullback as in yesterday’s rally?


    • rsotc May 11, 2016 3:11 pm at 3:11 pm

      Yes, volume is tracking well below average again today & there’s still some more work to be done to “undo” yesterday’s damage that was inflicted on the near-term bearish case. Regarding the low volume, this will probably be the new norm going forward with the “sell in May, go away” mantra now if effect & the summer doldrums in the market starting to roll in (where trading volumes often drop off before picking up again in the fall).


  6. pangblood May 11, 2016 4:01 pm at 4:01 pm

    GDX closing volume 266k green shares in the last 5 minutes 0.o
    So what’s the story now, think we closed just at (above?) the wedge line


    • rsotc May 11, 2016 4:05 pm at 4:05 pm

      Yes, both GLD & GDX closed slightly above the bottom of their wedge patterns today. Let’s see if the dollar can move higher tomorrow after today’s pullback to support. If so, those wedges could break for good anytime now.


  7. pangblood May 11, 2016 5:23 pm at 5:23 pm

    Randy, Today’s gold close is around May 4th’s gold low, but May 4th’s GDX low was 23.3 but today closed at 25. In other words , Gold has gone nowhere since May 4th, but GDX is up almost 8%. My point is, GDX keeps on catching Gold’s up move, but not it’s down move. Do you still stand firmly short term bearish? My conviction is slowing depleting.


    • rsotc May 12, 2016 8:55 am at 8:55 am

      PB- Yes. In fact, I’m just as intermediate-term bearish as I am short-term bearish on GDX. Even considering adding NUGT as an official swing short although official/unofficial, I’ll keep the analysis & my thoughts on the metals & miners coming as long as I see enough in the charts to be able to make a decent case to be long or short.


  8. Kstellish May 12, 2016 11:16 am at 11:16 am

    Looks like the final checks are getting crossed off.


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