This is a follow-up to yesterday's Near-term Outlook for U.S. Stocks video. While that video focused on technical developments & likely scenarios based on the daily & intraday charts, this video looks at the big picture from a longer-term perspective while analyzing weekly & monthly charts spanning years and even decades. Essentially we have all major U.S. equity indices trading well below their cyclical bull market trendlines (bearish) although the long-term trend indicators remain bullish (i.e.- yet to signal that the bull market is likely over).
Here's a look at most of the major broad US equity indices from both a daily & weekly (long-term) perspective. As noted on several of the weekly charts below, we need to see at least one solid weekly close below these bull market uptrend lines preferably all major US indices in order to help reduce the odds of a whipsaw sell signal. Essentially we have bearish price action, via numerous daily & weekly trendline breaks on nearly all major US indices, in addition sell signals from the recently highlighted trend indicators such as the 50/20-day ema pair bearish crossovers on all [...]
Here's a quick look at some of the major US stock indices from a longer-term perspective, all of which except the Nasdaq 100, have recently broken below their primary bull market uptrend lines. Some of the large-cap indices, such as the $OEX & $SPX, have rallied up to close just below those key resistance levels today (i.e.- backtesting) while the small & mid-caps ($RUT & $MID) remain comfortable below their respective bull market trendlines at this time. As mentioned earlier today, all major US stock indices remain on intermediate-term sell signals as per the 20/50-day EMA pair although the $NDX is [...]
The SPY is now at the bottom of the R3 zone. A reversal is likely either here or at the top of the zone (gap), while a break above that level would likely send prices to new highs. The QQQ is currently backtesting both the blue uptrend line as well as a horizontal resistance level defined by three recent gaps. The recent bullish falling wedge breakout in GLD is still well intact with gold prices continuing higher since the breakout. Overall I remain somewhat cautiously bearish on equities, primarily the regional banking sector and other financial related stocks although [...]
The SPY hit my downside target originally posted here just over 3 weeks ago within pennies before reversing. I've included that original chart from July 17th in which I stated "T2 is my preferred target, which is the bottom of the 5/27 gap as well as the 50% Fib retracement level." The bottom of the 5/27 (Tuesday) gap was the 5/23 (Friday) high of 190.48 , following a 3-day holiday weekend. The SPY kissed a low of 190.55 just before the close yesterday while putting a divergent (bullish) low on the intraday time frames (15-120 minute charts)... a mere 7 cents [...]
In last month's post titled It's About Time, the similarities in duration between the three bull markets over the last couple of decades were highlighted. In this updated chart of the $OEX (S&P 100 Index) below, I've added the exact duration of each bull market from bottom to top (using assumption that the current bull market did not end with last Tuesday's peak). The first bull market, which happened to follow a deer market instead of a bear market, lasted [...]
This $OEX (S&P 100 Index) weekly chart has been added to the Live Charts page under the U.S. Stock Indices section. As the S&P 500 and S&P 100 indices basically mirror each other, the $SPX is also currently trading precariously above it's similar primary bull market uptrend line with prices also wedging higher while most key indicators and oscillators continue to diverge (make lower highs). The take-away from this chart is that if & when these divergences do manifest in the form of a correction, as they have done in the past, that correction will almost certainly bring prices well below [...]