Swing Trade Ideas & Market Breadth Indicators 8-11-25

Here is a comprehensive summary of the mid-session market update video from Right Side of the Chart, published on August 11, 2025.

Housekeeping Note

The presenter notes he will be out of town for a trip to the Florida Keys starting early Wednesday morning, August 13, and returning the following Monday. He will be mostly offline during this time, so he wanted to provide a thorough analysis of current setups and long-term breadth indicators before his departure.

1. Swing Trade Ideas (Bottoming Plays)

The presenter focuses on long-side ideas that act as “bottoming plays” rather than chasing overextended tech/AI or meme stocks.

• Aptiv (APTV): Recently recovered its 200-day moving average following a clear divergent low [01:55]. It broke out of a primary downtrend line dating back to late 2021 and successfully back-tested its breakout level [02:47]. An initial target sits around $80 (approx. an 18% upside potential) [04:04].

• Campbell Soup (CPB): Coming off a divergent low, it has broken above its primary downtrend line and is currently testing/struggling with its 50-day moving average [04:50].

• Dow Chemical (DOW): Highly beaten down and experiencing a potential selling climax [05:22]. While there is positive divergence, it is still in freefall, so a starter position or waiting for a clear bullish reversal candle is recommended [06:06].

• United Healthcare (UNH): Showing a nice divergent low with the PPO poised for a bullish crossover [06:29]. However, it is currently in “technical no man’s land” between overhead resistance and its long-term support floor around $210, which would offer a much safer entry point [07:25].

2. Macro Signals & Macro Indicators to Watch

• 30-Year Bond Yield (TYX) / Long Bonds (TLT): Treasury yields have formed a post-COVID uptrend consisting of higher highs and higher lows [10:47]. If yields break out above recent highs, they have the technical potential to chase levels last seen in the 1990s or early 2000s, which would severely restrict government spending and impact equity markets [11:32]. Alternatively, a breakdown in yields caused by a “flight to safety” would imply a crashing stock market or recession expectations [13:36].

• Private Credit Sector (BIZD): Private equity and private debt/loans are heavily masked bubbles because these entities value their own underlying assets rather than relying on public liquid markets [15:42]. A forced liquidation in this sector could trigger a rapid downwards asset repricing across the broader financial system [15:53].

• California Bond Market (PCQ Proxy): Public pension funds across the US (like CalPERS) are significantly underfunded [19:10]. Many California municipal bond funds are sitting directly on descending triangle support levels; breaking down would send municipal borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, severely hurting local government financing [20:33].

• The Yield Curve Uninversion: The 10-year to 2-year and 10-year to 1-year yield spreads have officially uninverted [23:03]. Historically, the actual uninversion (moving back above the zero line) is the real signal that a recession is imminent [23:10].

• Upcoming Economic Calendar: The market is bracing for a highly active week featuring CPI data, PPI data, retail sales, industrial production, and a 20-year bond announcement [25:38].

3. Market Breadth Indicators (The “Screaming Red Flags”)

The presenter emphasizes that while cap-weighted indexes look robust, the underlying market health reveals a massive “preponderance of evidence” favoring an upcoming bear market or heavy correction [53:18].

• Apple (AAPL) Custom Indicator: Tracks the percentage that Apple trades above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) [28:57]. The stock’s price has marched higher, but this underlying momentum percentage has steadily declined—creating a massive multi-year negative divergence not seen since the prelude to the 2007–2008 financial crisis [29:53].

• NASDAQ Advance-Decline Issues ($NAAD): Shows a massive multi-year divergence where the NASDAQ Composite has pushed toward fresh highs, but the cumulative advance-decline line continues to sharply decay [35:09]. This scale of divergence has only been rivaled twice before: the Dot-Com bust and the 2007 financial crisis [36:03].

• NASDAQ New High / New Low Ratio ($NAHL): Confirms negative divergence as the index makes marginal new highs without a corresponding expansion in the actual number of individual stocks putting in 52-week highs [38:37].

• Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average: Roughly 62% of stocks within the NASDAQ Composite are actively trading below their 200-day moving average [41:54]. The presenter stresses that it is an extreme anomaly to see only ~38% of stocks trading above their long-term average while the core indexes print near all-time highs [40:04].

• Custom Hindenburg Omen Variant: Built specifically for the NASDAQ market cap dynamics, this crash indicator triggered multiple warning signals over the preceding week [51:05].

Conclusion & Timing Strategy

While these breadth conditions point to structural deterioration, they are environmental indicators rather than immediate timing indicators [48:43]. To trigger a major structural sell-off, the market needs to conclusively break below the key support floors established in early August (specifically referencing the key reaction lows from August 1st) [53:57]. Until then, equal-weighted indexes (like RSP and QQQE) continue to heavily underperform their cap-weighted counterparts, pointing to a late-stage bull market exhaustion phase [55:21].