Packaged Foods Trade Ideas 4-16-26 Right Side Of The Chart

This video begins with a brief update on the stock market, followed by trade ideas on my top picks in the Packaged Foods sector, concluding with another brief update on both the stock market & crude oil.

YouTube link: https://youtu.be/Ge0KdZtkhAA

Summary of the video, including timestamps of the various topics & securities covered, below:

Here is a comprehensive summary of the video update from Right Side of the Chart by Randy Phinney, detailing market trends and specific stock setups across the packaged foods sector.

Executive Summary

This mid-session update provides a broad overview of equity market technical indicators before diving deeply into individual long and short trade ideas within the packaged food sector (a defensive sub-sector of Consumer Staples). The speaker expresses skepticism regarding the broader market’s recent move to marginal all-time highs, noting that the “Magnificent 8” mega-cap tech stocks remain well below their peaks. Consequently, he recommends sector diversification into beaten-down, high-yielding blue-chip staple stocks that offer a favorable risk/reward ratio and “pay you to wait” via dividends.

Broad Market & Economic Outlook

Equity Markets & Technical Indicators

Triple Top & Bearish Divergence (01:08 – 03:51): The daily chart on major indexes shows the potential for a triple top high. Long-term indicators like the Monthly PPO remain in the bearish “red zone,” which historically precedes double-digit corrections.
Long-Term 401k Trend Indicator (04:01 – 05:42): The 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) on a monthly closing basis serves as a highly accurate long-term indicator. Because the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 remain above this line, long trade ideas are still viable for core portfolios.
The “Magnificent 8” Disconnection (51:58 – 54:49): The S&P 500’s new all-time high is highly unusual because none of the top eight market-cap drivers (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla) are near their individual all-time highs, signaling a suspect and heavily split market breakout.

Crude Oil Correlation & Market Hedges

Oil vs. Stocks (42:13 – 46:43): There is a tight inverse correlation between crude prices and the stock market when oil stays above $90/barrel. The market is currently pricing in a “worst is over” scenario for the Middle East, but crude futures rising toward $94.50 could soon spook equities.
SEO (ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil) (42:53 – 45:56): Used as a leveraged inverse vehicle to hedge broad market equity shorts.

Sector Breakdown: Packaged Food Stocks & ETFs

The speaker analyzed 78 packaged food charts, narrowing them down to a handful of high-conviction trade setups based on clear support levels and bullish falling wedges.

Broad Sector ETFs Covered

XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund) (10:32 – 11:06, 18:40 – 19:00): Mentioned as the closest generic option if an investor prefers not to pick individual stocks. Institutional “smart money” rotated into XLP as a defensive haven recently, hitting a divergent high before pulling back to its 200-day moving average.

Individual Stocks Covered

Ticker	Company Name	Timestamp	Sentiment	Key Technical Notes & Targets
KHC	Kraft Heinz Co.	06:48 & 08:00	Bullish	Currently in a long-term “buy zone” hovering near its historical COVID-19 lows. Features a well-defined downtrend line. Yields a high 7.24% dividend. Targets: T1 (downtrend line/resistance junction), T2 (200-day moving average).
GIS	General Mills, Inc.	13:46	Bullish	Forms a classic bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence. Expected to act like a magnet back to its 200-day moving average. Targets: T1 (initial breakout), T2 (200-day MA and major price resistance intersection, ~15% above T1).
HRL	Hormel Foods Corp.	21:18	Bullish	Sitting at major multi-year support dating back to a 2013 breakout. Considered a long-term swing/trend trade yielding a 5.65% dividend. Targets: T3 acts as a major near-term swing target (~27% profit potential) intersecting a 2022 downtrend line.
SJM	J.M. Smucker Co.	23:26	Bullish	Features strong positive divergence on the weekly chart. Experienced a brief “bear trap” false breakdown before a strong stick-save reversal back above key support.
PPC	Pilgrim’s Pride Corp.	27:08	Neutral / Conditional Long	Not a favorite, but has minor positive divergence. It needs to reclaim $34.10 to trigger a failed breakdown buy signal. Targets: T1 ($38.37), Max Target (200-day MA kickback).
LW	Lamb Weston Holdings	28:30	Bullish	Shows strong positive divergence and a small downtrend trigger line. Targets: A target zone established between $48.00 and $50.75 to test the 200-day MA.
CPB	Campbell Soup Co.	29:04	Bullish	Beautiful long-term support within a daily bullish falling wedge. Warrants a starter position even before the breakout. Yields nearly an 7.8% dividend. Targets: T2 provides a ~23% gain potential.
BRBR	BellRing Brands	29:51	Bullish	Bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence sitting right at the trigger line. Targets: First target at the intersection of $20 resistance and the downtrend line; max target is a return to the 200-day MA.
JJSF	J&J Snack Foods Corp.	30:41	Bullish	Sitting at major support levels tracking back to 2013. Shows clean bullish divergence on both daily and weekly charts. Needs to pop above $82.85.
MAMA	Mama Mancini’s (M Mama)	31:26	Bearish	Put in a recent divergent high; highlighted as a sector hedge/short option. If it breaks key support at $14.34, it opens the door to a massive move down. Targets (Short): $9.94, with lower targets representing up to a 63% potential drop.
BGS	B&G Foods Inc.	32:26	Strongly Bullish	One of the most promising setups. It broke above a well-defined downtrend line and its 200-day MA, successfully backtesting it. Entry triggers on a break above $5.67. Targets: T1 (34% gain at $7.58), T2 (108% gain), T3 (200% gain).
LWAY	Lifeway Foods, Inc.	35:18	Bearish	A bearish chart that put in a divergent high, lost its 200-day MA, and is currently failing its backtest of the trendline. Setup presents an objective short entry.
USNA	USANA Health Sciences	35:59	Bullish	Bullish falling wedge pattern. Targets: Ranges from $22.58 (19% gain near the 200-day MA) up to $24.45 (50% gain), with a max speculative target up to 160%.
BYND	Beyond Meat Inc.	37:03	Speculative Bullish	A highly volatile micro-cap/penny stock ($326M market cap) forming a positive divergence double-bottom. Strictly a speculative trade, not an investment. Targets: Break above $8.20 targets $11.11 and $14.80 (200-day MA, ~77% upside).
HAIN	The Hain Celestial Group	38:29	Speculative Bullish	Micro-cap ($80M), high-risk penny stock territory. Shows large positive divergence. Targets: T1 offers a 12–22% quick pop, while higher targets tracking toward the 200-day MA (T2) allow up to 220% max upside.
LFVN	LifeVantage Corp.	40:12	Speculative Bullish	Approaching a weekly long-term support zone ($3.38 – $3.40) with a daily falling wedge. PPO is buried at historical bottom levels, signaling an optimal spot for a starter position.

Ticker

Company Name

Timestamp

Sentiment

Key Technical Notes & Targets

KHC

Kraft Heinz Co.

06:48 & 08:00

Bullish

Currently in a long-term “buy zone” hovering near its historical COVID-19 lows. Features a well-defined downtrend line. Yields a high 7.24% dividend. Targets: T1 (downtrend line/resistance junction), T2 (200-day moving average).

GIS

General Mills, Inc.

13:46

Bullish

Forms a classic bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence. Expected to act like a magnet back to its 200-day moving average. Targets: T1 (initial breakout), T2 (200-day MA and major price resistance intersection, ~15% above T1).

HRL

Hormel Foods Corp.

21:18

Bullish

Sitting at major multi-year support dating back to a 2013 breakout. Considered a long-term swing/trend trade yielding a 5.65% dividend. Targets: T3 acts as a major near-term swing target (~27% profit potential) intersecting a 2022 downtrend line.

SJM

J.M. Smucker Co.

23:26

Bullish

Features strong positive divergence on the weekly chart. Experienced a brief “bear trap” false breakdown before a strong stick-save reversal back above key support.

PPC

Pilgrim’s Pride Corp.

27:08

Neutral / Conditional Long

Not a favorite, but has minor positive divergence. It needs to reclaim $34.10 to trigger a failed breakdown buy signal. Targets: T1 ($38.37), Max Target (200-day MA kickback).

Lamb Weston Holdings

28:30

Bullish

Shows strong positive divergence and a small downtrend trigger line. Targets: A target zone established between $48.00 and $50.75 to test the 200-day MA.

CPB

Campbell Soup Co.

29:04

Bullish

Beautiful long-term support within a daily bullish falling wedge. Warrants a starter position even before the breakout. Yields nearly an 7.8% dividend. Targets: T2 provides a ~23% gain potential.

BRBR

BellRing Brands

29:51

Bullish

Bullish falling wedge pattern with positive divergence sitting right at the trigger line. Targets: First target at the intersection of $20 resistance and the downtrend line; max target is a return to the 200-day MA.

JJSF

J&J Snack Foods Corp.

30:41

Bullish

Sitting at major support levels tracking back to 2013. Shows clean bullish divergence on both daily and weekly charts. Needs to pop above $82.85.

MAMA

Mama Mancini’s (M Mama)

31:26

Bearish

Put in a recent divergent high; highlighted as a sector hedge/short option. If it breaks key support at $14.34, it opens the door to a massive move down. Targets (Short): $9.94, with lower targets representing up to a 63% potential drop.

BGS

B&G Foods Inc.

32:26

Strongly Bullish

One of the most promising setups. It broke above a well-defined downtrend line and its 200-day MA, successfully backtesting it. Entry triggers on a break above $5.67. Targets: T1 (34% gain at $7.58), T2 (108% gain), T3 (200% gain).

LWAY

Lifeway Foods, Inc.

35:18

Bearish

A bearish chart that put in a divergent high, lost its 200-day MA, and is currently failing its backtest of the trendline. Setup presents an objective short entry.

USNA

USANA Health Sciences

35:59

Bullish

Bullish falling wedge pattern. Targets: Ranges from $22.58 (19% gain near the 200-day MA) up to $24.45 (50% gain), with a max speculative target up to 160%.

BYND

Beyond Meat Inc.

37:03

Speculative Bullish

A highly volatile micro-cap/penny stock ($326M market cap) forming a positive divergence double-bottom. Strictly a speculative trade, not an investment. Targets: Break above $8.20 targets $11.11 and $14.80 (200-day MA, ~77% upside).

HAIN

The Hain Celestial Group

38:29

Speculative Bullish

Micro-cap ($80M), high-risk penny stock territory. Shows large positive divergence. Targets: T1 offers a 12–22% quick pop, while higher targets tracking toward the 200-day MA (T2) allow up to 220% max upside.

LFVN

LifeVantage Corp.

40:12

Speculative Bullish

Approaching a weekly long-term support zone ($3.38 – $3.40) with a daily falling wedge. PPO is buried at historical bottom levels, signaling an optimal spot for a starter position.

Portfolio Management Notes (16:21 – 18:40)

Position Sizing: Because the list transitions from massive blue-chips (like Kraft Heinz) down to highly speculative micro-cap penny stocks (like Hain Celestial), Phinney stresses adjusting position sizes down significantly for lower market-cap names (“Vegas money”).
Safety in Numbers: Creating a “mini-ETF” by buying 4 to 6 of these top bottoming picks helps smooth out individual company earnings risks while outperforming the broader market-cap-weighted consumer staples sector.

Packaged Foods Trade Ideas 4-16-26