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US Equity Markets & US Dollar Outlook 3-21-16

This video starts out with an overview of the US Dollar index, which has remained in a large sideways trading range for over a year now. I still favor a downside resolution of the pattern although the $USD is likely continue to grind around aimlessly until it breaks above or below this large trading range. The remainder of the video covered the charts of the US equity markets, including key price & Fibonacci retracement levels.

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Mar 21, 2016 10:03am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Forex (Currencies)|Tags: , , , , , , , , |4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. cem602 March 21, 2016 10:13 am at 10:13 am

    @Randy Would the significant home sales data miss (-7.0% vs -2.0% expt.) this morning be another example of bad news is shaken off or bad news = good news? Or this is significant/insignificant to the bearish thesis?

    Thank you again for the updates!

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  2. joefriday March 21, 2016 11:04 am at 11:04 am

    Super stuff Randy…. this is classic slow stairway move up ..to be followed by a fast elevator move down ..imho..

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  3. dan123 March 21, 2016 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm

    Great video thanks for the update

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  4. snipertrader March 21, 2016 5:30 pm at 5:30 pm

    @rsotc – Randy, nice update, thanks for all the work. That’s the key to this all, letting the analysis across multiple time frames and markets drive whether there needs to be a change to the directional conviction no matter what without emotion.

    BTW, I had posted a comparison chart of the SPX and VIX along with a thesis of potential crawling / low volatility action to create and play into the rounded top bigger picture pattern. Not sure if you’ve seen it or feel it has any potential / relevance to hep chart the waters and potentially how this will all play out. Up till a couple weeks ago due ot the VIX I had put higher odds on this current move ( although I was still remaining bullish to neutral ) to eventually end in a volatile manner of some kind to the downside. But with what they did to the VIX last week and the way the SPX looks and is postured at the moment I’m giving higher odds now to this low volatility crawl out topping underneath that major rounded top trend line with perhaps some back and forth action with ultimately a final break down which of course would spike the VIX. Unless of course VIX just spikes suddenly or some other catalyst event. I’m focusing my view on this to the SPX specifically knowing that NDX, COMP and RUT are all lagging due to my belief that there is so much focus on SPX that unless that cracks bullish sentiment will remain in tact and therefore SPX will be held up longer to keep it going. Also DJI and DJT are strong but perhaps neither as important to the overall market psychology than the SPX. Anyway, if you have time take a look at that post and would be interested in your feedback / views on that scenario. Thx

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