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Ending Diagonal Patterns

I am far from a proficient "Elliotician" so I'd welcome feedback on those who regularly incorporate Elliot Wave Theory into their market analysis as to whether or not the wave counts for these potential Ending Diagonal Patterns are valid (or might be but could use some relabeling).  I have mentioned the possibly of an ED Pattern on the S&P 500 Index in recent weeks but have also noticed similar formations on some other key indices such as the Wilshire 5000 Index & the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (click on any of those indices to view the live charts).  If these [...]

2013-10-22T16:23:30+00:00 Oct 22, 2013 4:18pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , |Comments Off on Ending Diagonal Patterns

market thoughts

as we head into the final hour of trading, i just wanted to share my market thoughts.  as i can not give specific investment or trading advice, i can, and do, share my thoughts on the market as well as how i am personally trading.  as always, my opinion will be right at times, wrong at others so always DYODD and trade according to your own market beliefs, trading style and risk tolerance. with that being said, i'd like to highlight that so far, the market is playing out exactly as i have been predicting for weeks and even months now.  [...]

2017-03-08T21:22:04+00:00 Oct 19, 2012 3:15pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , |Comments Off on market thoughts

key indices bull-traps

a quick update to the bull-trap scenarios that i was covering a few weeks ago.  as highlighted before, the leading index ($NDX/QQQ) has given solid confirmation for a bull-trap with a break of the bearish rising wedge pattern followed by a break below the previous "bullish" breakout to new highs.  currently, the $NDX is re-testing that level from below where prices will likely be rejected and turn down lower soon.     however, i had stated that we would not have an "all clear" short signal until the broad indexes ($SPX & $DWC, which are more diversified than the $NDX) also [...]

2017-03-08T21:22:04+00:00 Oct 18, 2012 9:49am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , |Comments Off on key indices bull-traps

comprehensive view of the key US indices

i still plan to update and highlight some of the existing trades as soon as i get a chance.  however, as all eyes are most likely on the broad markets right now due to their precarious technical posture, i have updated the key index charts posted last night as well as several others that have been covered lately.  the bottom line is this:  the markets are bouncing today in spite of some clearly negative economic data.  from a technical perspective, the bounce shouldn't come as a surprise as the markets were very oversold on the short-term frames and more importantly, as [...]

2017-03-08T21:22:06+00:00 Sep 27, 2012 1:11pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |Comments Off on comprehensive view of the key US indices

primary scenario update and revised QQQ targets

here's a few of the recently highlighted key indices and where we stand as far as my primary scenario goes. this first chart is the Wilshire 5000 ($DWC).  prices closed right on both the key support level that marked the recent breakout to new highs as well as the bottom of the bearish rising wedge.  any close or solid intraday break below this level will leave a lot of trapped buyers who chased the recent "bullish" breakout to new highs and will be underwater on their positions. this next chart below is the S&P 500 ($SPX) which shows that prices closed [...]

2017-03-08T21:22:06+00:00 Sep 26, 2012 10:50pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |Comments Off on primary scenario update and revised QQQ targets

Step 1: Check.

as per my recent primary scenario, the major indexes ($SPX & $DWC) are now clearly trading back inside of their bearish rising wedge patterns, confirming step 1 (a move back inside of the wedge following the recent wedge overthrow).  given, we do still have another 1.25 hours left in today's trading session so we still need to see a definitive close inside (or below) the wedges.  the next steps would be a breakdown below those wedges followed by all key indices moving back below the levels where they recently made their impulsive breakouts to new highs back on sept 6th. once/if all [...]

2017-03-08T21:22:08+00:00 Sep 25, 2012 2:46pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , |Comments Off on Step 1: Check.

wilshire deja vu?

back on thursday march 29th of this year, exactly 2 trading sessions before the market peaked on april 2nd and began an 11%+ correction, i made the following post: the Wilshire 5000 is probably the single-most representative index of the US stock market.  looks like a break of this falling wedge will most likely result in a failure of the recent breakout to new highs.  sometimes these failures will only take prices slightly below the key support area, sucking in some more shorts and shaking out the last of the weak-handed longs before continuing higher but a failure to hold these [...]

2012-09-20T20:37:32+00:00 Sep 20, 2012 8:31pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: |Comments Off on wilshire deja vu?