Stock Market Technical Analysis 7-10-26

Here is a comprehensive summary of the market update from Randy Phinney at Right Side of the Chart, tracking the key topics, individual stocks, ETFs, and indices discussed along with their respective ticker symbols and technical outlooks.

General Market Context & Trading Strategy

• [00:02] Summer Doldrums: The market is currently experiencing low trading volume and choppy “whipsaw” action typical of the weeks surrounding the Independence Day holiday.

• [08:45] A Stock Picker’s Market: The major equity indexes have largely stalled and gone sideways over the last few months. Phinney emphasizes managing a diversified portfolio utilizing OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) orders to lock in profit targets and stop-losses automatically.

Individual Securities & Commodities

• F5, Inc. (Ticker: FFIV) | [04:59]

  • Technical Outlook: Formed a bearish rising wedge pattern. It previously broke out of a bullish falling wedge at support, but a fresh sell signal would trigger on a decisive break below the lower trendline of the current wedge.

• Kimberly-Clark Corporation (Ticker: KMB) | [06:26]

  • Technical Outlook: The stock recently hit its final upside target (T3 around $168). A high-level bearish PPO crossover is actively printing as the stock rolls out of overbought territory. Phinney considers this a bear market rally within a larger multi-year downtrend and suggests waiting for a deeper pullback toward the 200-day moving average (T1 support) before considering re-entry.

• Natural Gas Futures (Ticker: /NG) | [18:54]

  • Strategy Advice: In response to a subscriber question about seasonal winter positioning, Phinney recommends strictly trading and charting the current, most liquid contract month rather than guessing forward months due to complex variables like contango, backwardation, and geopolitics.

Major Stock Market Indices & ETFs

• Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) | [21:35]

  • Technical Outlook: The NASDAQ 100 has been stuck in a flat trading range since mid-May. While a primary sell signal was triggered back when it broke the March pivot trendline, it has chopped sideways since hitting its first target. Phinney notes that any marginal new high made anytime soon will print a severe negative momentum divergence (PPO/RSI lagging behind price), a setup that carries an 80%+ historical failure rate. He continues to favor an ultimate downside break targeting the $636 level, whether or not QQQ makes a marginal new high.

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY) | [01:00:32] (Also introduced at [26:58])

  • Technical Outlook: Similar to the QQQ, the S&P 500 is caught in a sloppy, sideways range after breaking its primary March uptrend line. Phinney favors a breakdown to back-test the top of its multi-month base and its 200-day moving average near $496.

• iShares Russell 2000 ETF (Ticker: IWM) | [28:36]

  • Technical Outlook: Small-caps are currently sitting on an active sell signal. After breaking down from a clear bearish rising wedge pattern off the March lows, the ETF back-tested the broken trendline and turned down. A fourth downside target has been added at $218 to check a key gap fill.

• PHLX Semiconductor Index (Index: SOX / ETF Ticker: SOXX) | [51:58]

  • Technical Outlook: Looking at the long-term weekly chart, the semiconductor sector is historically overbought on the PPO momentum indicator. Momentum has clearly stalled out, making a major bearish weekly PPO crossover imminent.

Internal Market Health & Sentiment Indicators

• Market Breadth (NASDAQ Percentage of Stocks Above 200-Day/50-Day MA) | [30:47]

  • Analysis: Phinney lifts the hood on market breadth, revealing an “unnatural and dangerous” divergence. While indices trade near all-time highs, over half of the individual stocks within the NASDAQ are trading below their 200-day moving average (only 44% are above it). The market’s upside has been single-handedly carried by tech and select semiconductor names while the rest of the market degrades.

• Equity-Only Put-to-Call Ratio (Indicator: $CPCE) | [42:07]

  • Analysis: This sentiment gauge shows extreme, persistent complacency. There hasn’t been a “reset” spike in fear since late 2023. When institutional investors go long periods without buying puts to protect themselves, it structurally leaves the market vulnerable to deep, sudden corrections.