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Market Wrap & Trade Ideas Update 4-27-20
Home » Blog » Market Analysis (all categories) » Equity Market Analysis » Market Wrap & Trade Ideas Update 4-27-20
Ran across this. Thought I would share.
And calendar dates seem to move the market as well. Last year there was a 7.5% drop starting May 1 and pretty much ending May 31. “Sell in May and go away” is present in enough peoples’ minds that I think it’s got a life of its own
@rsotc Randy, do you have any thoughts on oil tanker industry? I keep seeing and hearing all over. I suppose they are huge beneficially of current situation with crude oil.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3564676-tanker-stocks-on-rise-product-tanker-names-poised-to-rally-stifel-says
How much more can they rise? It’s been a month long rally
As much as 6Trillion dollars can buy, unfortunately :-( …Like you, I’m as frustrated as anyone right now because nobody has come out and actually calculated how much does all the stimulus translate into in terms of market values! But if the markets are suppose to be a leading indicator of the economy then when the slingshot correction of reality begins it should be quite steep! I mean if these big Market Mover companies refuse to give guidance it’s a wonder there are any Bulls left! Maybe it’s because when you’re pushed off a cliff by the Fed you can’t… Read more »
I understand that adding oil industry on FEDs balance sheet is gonna give a lifeline to the companies to keep paying to tankers.
However, ask yourself, how many tankers are left out there to fill with oil? I don’t see tankers rallying because I think once you’re out of capacity, you just keep collecting money, but I don’t see this translating into growth. Last time I checked DHT had a pretty bleak growth outlook for the year and that was before oil took the hit.
Just wanted to follow on up on this one. There was an article yesterday highlighting that oil producers are changing focus from VLCC (2m barrel capacity) class tankers to long range tankers (800k barrel capacity). My assumption that all those VLCC vessels are already full by now.
I looked at charts of TNK and DHT. DHT has 27 VLCCs and TNK has about 60 tankers (50% VLCCs). The charts for both look like it’s the end of the run at resistance. I wonder if @rsotc is tracking any of this.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/32563eae-fae5-4f24-b3ad-459f6ebca495
What if we get SPY 300 TSLA 1000+, kiss the EMA good bye, and then some juicy megaphone action. Can’t we all just get along?
Loved the charts in this. Thanks for sharing.
@venetiandog How do you find Sven’s analysis in general?
Great video, thank you for posting!
Are you guys still short NVDA? I hope you closed it out.
I would have made a lot more (or at least lost a lot less) if I tried to navigate this market on my own. How far past the “max bounce” that Randy constantly talked about in March are we? 15%? 300 on Spy seems inevitable now. Still hopeful that TA isn’t completely useless in this time period. 2008 & 2000 comparisons seem pretty irrelevant though.
@bransth. Randy also did say this is his opinion and to do your own research. Although I get it why folks sign up for a service and you expect them to do most of the leg work. Like you a lot of folks make the mistake of thinking they know how markets work and they don’t. Plenty of good trades left. Good luck.
SPY is within 1% of the fib 61.8 retracement. I’m starting to capitulate so maybe we have reached the top?
When more bears capitulate and join you. Maybe when this whole group including Randy have thrown the towel then maybe it’ll be time.
I feel the same. And it seems beyond the point of a Bear mkt rally. We have, and continue to climb, the wall of worry built by bears such as ourselves. To think I even added to the pain with spxs just yesterday. No good morning for me.
(FOMO+Don’t fight Fed)xWall of worry=Bearish pain
I’m also at that point – was ready to close out my SPY shorts yesterday but the goal post was moved again (confirmation bias). That being said, I still am bearish in general, but I am getting to the ‘frustration’ and ‘call it quits’ phase right now. The top is either close, or it’s just not going to happen and I’ll have to take the L.
Textbook definition of gambling:
1. make a bet
2. double down when you lose (SPY failed trade after QQQ failed trade, constant removing of stops)
3. rationalize your loses, aka find excuses
4. use the word “hope” in every sentence
… please. I don’t understand why you and G-trader have to troll Randy in every thread, given that both of you have zero ideas to oppose his vision. This is childish at best.
Actually, Becky, we are not – and no, I am not G-Trader’s advocate. I don’t know him/her. I have had multiple posts both on fundamentals and trades. I will not go back to more than a month ago when I was warning Randy that this is the Fed’s market, but here are the most recent examples: – on Friday (4/24) at 10am EST I call SPY at 287.5, followed by 294.0 Stock Market & INTC (Intel) Analysis 4-23-20 – on Sunday (4/26) at 10pm EST I called again SPY at 294.0 Market Analysis & Trade Ideas 4-24-20 – 18 hours… Read more »
You’re assuming you and Randy are at odds. Randy is a swing trader, and his targets aren’t out of the realm of possibility. Randy never said we wouldn’t reach these levels before the market turns (in fact, he said on multiple occasions that it was possible). You are simply trading on a different time frame than most of the people on this forum. There’s a big different between a trade that isn’t working and a trade that didn’t work.
Oh man I would have to go through all of the posts to find your comments. I think I saw your charts and I didn’t understand a thing in them. I may be wrong, again I’d have to revisit them although I am already siding with Randy and balls deep in these trades, so it’s a bit too late to pull out even if you have a genius idea of what market is gonna do.
OK, one more reply and I will let you be – and no, I am not trolling you, I am just trying to show you a different perspective, if this will ever help you. 1. You posted a screenshot with bad economic news – something that I never questioned. What I have questioned is the magnitude and the long term impact of these events. I have written several posts arguing that the 26 million unemployed are not de facto unemployed. 2. Waaaay more important: I have also written multiple posts on the fact that the stock market is not the… Read more »
I have a personal observation I’d like to share. Lately I have seen a lot of people trashing the advice on RSOTC. While I understand why everyone is frustrated right now, complaining never made anyone a better investor. Randy has a methodology that makes sense to me. He looks for trendlines and support levels in the market and matches them up with momentum indicators. When there is a reaction from the market levels that coincides with the momentum indicators, he puts on a trade. Overall he has a great track record of spotting turns. If his style or advice doesn’t… Read more »
My thoughts, also. Thanks, bunchpr, for putting it so eloquently!
I totally agree. Everyone is his or her own master and responsible for personal trades.
As such, everyone can ignore my demonstrations of Randy’s erroneous analysis. If you chose to ignore the facts that I present is entirely your right.
If, on the other hand, you are complaining about an opinion going against Randy’s, well that’s doing exactly what you have accused others of doing.
I am sorry, but all I am doing is present facts. And unlike others, when I am wrong I am not afraid to admit that I am wrong.
@bunchpr
We won’t know if the bears are right or wrong for several more months, so get off your high horse.
Bro don’t waste your time. People are entitled to see what they want to see. I find it funny the reaction to opposing views here.
The same forces that created the explosive top to the bull market in Feb are in play here. I think it will pop but when and by what? I’m sure the forces and policies would like to keep it going until at least Nov. I think the next pop will be the big one. Its so hard to time the pop with shorts.
Could be a short squeeze in play. I wouldn’t be surprised if the markets take a step down, soon. If not, then we’re most likely headed higher, to 3000 on the S&P. Keep an open mind, folks.
I agree, the market is going up or down. ;-)
Well, the FED should be satisfied with itself. Good job in propping up the markets. So maybe they will not pump so hard in the meeting this week. They are at a huge risk of creating another bubble that could pop even harder.
Hey guys yesterday I sent in ROKU 125P trade. Target 120. Congrats if you followed.
My TC2000 was messed up this morning and was showing percent gains based off Friday’s close. That was some scary stuff. It was showing SPY was up 2.66% today. I had to restart it and that fixed it.