Market Recap for May 12, 2016

QQQ fell & closed back well below both the 106.80 level & the 130-period ema today, keeping the bearish case alive. The 13/33-ema trend indicator also flipped back to bearish after the brief whipsaw signal while SPY was rejected off the downtrend line & closed back below the 207.00 level. 60-minute charts:

Zooming out to the daily time frame, QQQ has a trio of key converging EMAs to contend with: the 20, 50 & 200 day. Also note the recent 20/50ema death cross, which has historically done a good job of signaling intermediate-term trend changes.

QQQ daily May 12th

QQQ daily May 12th

Both GDX & GLD continue to flirt with the bottom of their bearish rising wedge patterns where a breakdown on both appears imminent at this point. Confirming the bearish near-term outlook for gold & the miners is my continued bullish outlook for the US Dollar. UUP (dollar ETF) continues to move higher after a shallow pullback to the 24.25 support and appears to be moving above this bullish falling wedge pattern (120-minute chart) after the recent false breakdown/bear trap that was highlighted on the $DXY daily chart.

2017-03-08T21:19:47+00:00 May 12, 2016 7:14pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Forex (Currencies), Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |4 Comments


  1. toby May 12, 2016 8:39 pm at 8:39 pm

    thanks for the update!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  2. pangblood May 13, 2016 2:48 am at 2:48 am

    Randy, great update.
    I have a question in regards to Gold, what is the likelyhood of gold retracing back to 1285 before breaking down further, this is the 0.618 fib entrancement off the all time highs.
    I think this level would need to be tested before heading much lower. What are your thoughts? Of course this would still be bearish.


    • rsotc May 13, 2016 8:37 am at 8:37 am

      A move back to 1285 is certainly a possibility as gold is still within the wedge pattern although based on where prices are in relation to the apex coupled with the posture of the macd & rsi, I favor an imminent breakdown in both gold & the miners as in no bounce to 1285 before that happens. Again, anything is possible but a bounce to 1285 just isn’t my preferred scenario.


  3. dan123 May 13, 2016 9:35 am at 9:35 am

    Great update Randy, thanks


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