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Closing Stock Market Analysis & Commentary 12-20-18

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Closing Stock Market Analysis & Commentary 12-20-18

End of day technical analysis of the US stock market via SPY, QQQ, MDY, GLD, $VIX & TLT. For the most part, this video covers many of the same charts & developments that were covered in the subscriber-only video posted earlier today, minus the price targets on IWM & GLD, along with some developments to watch for on GLD (gold ETF). $VIX (volatility index) and TLT (Treasury bond ETF).

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2018-12-20T17:09:32+00:00Dec 20, 2018 5:09pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Fixed Income (Bonds), Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , , , , , , |7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. AmosBurton_34 December 20, 2018 7:21 pm at 7:21 pm

    @rsotc $ fell out of rising wedge and EURUSD & JPYUSD perking up, can I keep my gold stocks – paleeze?

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    • rsotc December 21, 2018 1:58 pm at 1:58 pm

      Longer-term, I like gold & GDX. Near-term I think there’s a decent chance that we’re looking at a pullback over the next month or so.

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  2. Garrett December 20, 2018 9:04 pm at 9:04 pm

    More of a procedural question for you Randy:

    How do you come up with your price targets? Or more specifically, how did you select your price targets on the initial market breakdown/wedge? Are they a combination of support levels and measured moves?

    I ask because, as you mentioned, the first couple price targets were pretty spot on as interaction levels. When trying to avoid the bias you mention and judge whether the last target is likely to work, it seems the best method would be to consider why the other ones worked so well. For example, did the other ones work for specific reasons, and are market conditions similar enough so that those reasons still apply to the final target?

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    • rsotc December 21, 2018 2:04 pm at 2:04 pm

      I wish I could answer that question with a few sentences or even a couple of paragraphs but unfortunately, there are too many variables & factors that go into how I came up with those targets, some of the larger factors being the scope of the technical patterns, were the economy & stock market is in the business cycle, the excessive bullishness & overcrowded trades on the FAAMG stocks & index funds, the extremes in margin debt & more. A large part of it is also over 2 decades of experience & an intuitive feel for the market which sometimes works with uncanny precision & other times doesn’t seem to work at all or more often, being a bit (or quite a bit) too early on the trend reversals that I see coming.

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      • Garrett December 24, 2018 5:37 am at 5:37 am

        Thanks that actually answers precisely what I was wondering. I have much less experience and expertise than you, but I also use many factors when planning my trades and targets. One thing that always worried me is watching other traders on social media sticking to 1 or 2 signals, and wondering if my methods were somehow flawed because I used more. It’s good to hear that someone who I respect also uses a somewhat similar methodology when trading.

        Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

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  3. jasonstevanhill December 20, 2018 9:21 pm at 9:21 pm

    McClellan agrees with your argument for a significant retracement on Treasuries, which implies an impending market bounce.

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/t-bond_blowoff_top_signaled/

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