The following video provides end-of-session technical analysis of the US stock market including an update on the SPY & TVIX swing trade ideas. Silver or Gold level access initially required to view.
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Closing Stock Market Analysis 5-12-20
2020-05-12T18:21:53-04:00May 12, 2020 6:21pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Subscriber-only Content|Tags: $MID, $NDX, $RUT, $SPX, $VIX, /ES, /NQ, IWM, MDY, QQQ, SPY, TVIX|21 Comments
AH closes:
SPY $383.67
QQQ $220.02
/ES down almost 1%
Wow! Is it happening? I thought we had another month of chopping around.
Thanks again to take time for us.
Randy, I have something for you to do tomorrow during the last hour of trading! LOL
The answer was so obvious. We just needed Randy to attempt to take some time off for something to actually happen. A watched pot never boils.
“Thank God they didn’t close TVIX below our stop” LOL
I added to my soxx short today. Im not sure if you stopped out of the official trade but could you continue to update it as if you havnt? Thanks for the updates
NQ nice bounce in to resistance for another short entry. 8400 looks quite probable for a bounce.
Here’s another take on that wedge.
In case you didn’t hear, Powell is giving a speech at 9:00E this morning where he will likely talk about the state of the economy. Some speculation out there that he may undermine rumors of a potential negative interest rate.
I don’t think Powell and Trump are on the same team. This should be interesting.
There is a very good possibility that the short happiness may have been very short lived.Right now S&P (futures) is back-testing the green bullish channel, as well as the 2880 resistance. Additionally, I have added a secondary/ alternative lower band for the green channel. At this level I see 3 possible scenarios, each of them equally possible. 1. The semi-bearish scenario – a rejection at the 2880 support, followed by a retest of the 2850 & 2820 levels, with hopes for a red day 2. The semi-bullish scenario – S&P continues to back-test the green channel, crawling back towards 2940… Read more »
That’s very glass-half-full analysis. You’ve drawn only upward trendlines when you could draw just as valid down trendlines on that graph.
That’s because the trendline is bullish. I don’t exclude a pullback towards 2850 (and there’s an arrow indicating that), but I believe that the chances for a move up are higher than those for a move down and that’s what I draw. We are already at 2880 and my feeling is that we will take that out even before the market opens.
I’m hoping for a fade and close below 284.
So am I. Fingers crossed for the run at 2720, but I have to trade the chart. If we take again the 2880 resistance, 90% we’re going back to 2940, at the very least (there’s a tiny chance for a false signal, that is going to 2890 and falling back below resistance, but one should not trade 10% chances).
We will know the direction by 11am.
To add I think bullish trend was already running out of steam. I think we will hit our short entry position first before we go higher. I don’t think any bulls are buying at these levels. RR is not there.
Powell just gave the short scenario a boost this morning!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-may-13-2020-221848805.html?.tsrc=rss
The short case is now significantly stronger.
Huge trading period here as we try to backtest and defend. was hoping we’d have some update info this morning
But I already posted 2 updates. Oh, you meant from Randy …
Looks like weve successfully put the entire market on the MAGA/FAANG group. in my opinion as long as they hold up the market will too. If the market decides to take some profit in AAPL MSFT AMZN GOOGL though.
Yep. The “problem” is that there’s so much liquidity in the market that they don’t know where to put it and the tech companies are the lucky winners