I would be remiss not to point out these potential bear flag continuation patterns on /ES & /NQ (S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 futures) although with MSFT reporting after the close today, it would be hard to imagine these flags playing out to the measured target before then, that’s assuming they even trigger a sell signal which would come on an impulsive break down below the flags.
/RTY (Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index futures) has broken below the primary near-term uptrend line & is currently testing the secondary parallel trendline (support) below it following the recent divergent high.
RTY 60m Oct 23rd
/ZB (30-yr Treasury bond futures) continues to rally off the recent divergent low with the next buy signal to come on a break above this trendline while /ZN (10-yr T-bond futures) has broken out above both 60m downtrend lines with the next buy signal to come on a break above 130’050. The fact that the ‘risk-off/flight-to-safety’ Treasury bonds just put in divergent lows with potentially bullish technical postures adds to the case for a correction in the stock indices, which have just put in divergent highs on the 60-minute charts with increasingly bearish technical postures.
While the near-term direction of gold remains unclear as /GC pinches towards the apex of this 60-minute triangle pattern, an upside resolution (breakout) of the pattern appears to be the most likely scenario at this time as that would mesh with the outlook for equities & Treasuries above.
GC 60m Oct 23rd
While this scenario doesn’t exactly mesh with the preferred scenario for gold above, /PA (palladium futures) would trigger a sell signal on a solid break below the 1718ish support while any new high soon would most likely be a divergent high on this 60-minute chart.
PA 60m Oct 23rd
My best guess would be that the stock market, along with the risk-off assets, mostly grind around today without making any large moves as traders & investors await MSFT earnings after the close today as well as the big reports from AMZN & INTC after the close tomorrow. As such, the odds for whipsaw signals (i.e.- false breakouts) remains elevated at this time and with the big earnings reports over the next two days, the chance for sizeable opening gaps in the market over the next few trading sessions is pretty decent so one should factor that into their swing trade positioning & total net long or short exposure.
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Randy, any idea on how to short PA without using futures?
PALL is a physical palladium ETF, this is what I will use personally.
@Oz is correct (thanks), PALL is the ETF for palladium.
PALL is not available to short is what I get when I try to short and no options ..
It’s not uncommon for many brokers to not have availability of less actively traded stocks & ETFs available for their customers to short. Interactive Brokers caters to professional & active retail traders & typically has the best availability of HTB (hard-to-borrow) shares of stocks & ETFs for shorting. As of now, they are showing that they have plenty of shares of PALL available to short (at least 15,600 shares). Unless you are an active trader, you might want to wait until PALL triggers a longer-term sell signal such as a break below the price channel/uptrend line on the daily chart… Read more »
Thanks ,I took one contract short , I would likely cover at 1700 or 1690 , what is short term target @rsotc?
@rsotc was this just a day trade ? /PA ?
Yes & no. It was both a day trade opp with an entry on the drop below 1718 earlier today & the opportunity to book quick (day trade) profits when that 1705 minor support level was hit or a swing trade if one wants to hold out for the target zone around 1677 & possibly more than that might trigger a longer-term sell signal on this daily chart with a break below the uptrend line.
Thanks.. The suggested stop was 1722 but now its trading at 1724.. I guess it can go all the way up to Downtrend line before reversing …@rsotc , Thanks
Now that /PA has already had a reaction off the first tag of the 1705 minor support, it is likely that if it turns back down here from this backtest of the 1718 level & starts another leg down that it will take out that support level the next time around. As such, unless /PA is stopped out (either a tight stop around 1722 or a wider stop above the downtrend line I have since added to the updated 60m chart below) I would expect a move down to the top of the 1670-1677 target zone & look to cover… Read more »
thanks so much randy! I like the new comment features – very good!
Thx for your feedback. You may see the added comment features turned off & back on over the next week if troubleshooting any bugs with the new software but any posts comments that you subscribed to receive email notifications should be saved.
Hi Randy @rsotc
I did not have tight stop … so still in the trade but now /PA is already at 1729 level which I think is the lose uptrend line in the above chart you are talking about right …
Please let me know if its still objective to hold for swing
Guess I showed you guys the wrong 60-min precious metal triangle pattern (/GC) in this post as /PL (platinum) exploded higher after breaking above this 60m triangle pattern today. /PL or PLAT (platinum ETF) will offer an objective long exit or short entry for a quick pullback trade when it hits the 926ish target (closing a long or opening a short somewhat below the actual resistance at 926).
the volume on PALL is very very low. Any options on something a little bit more active?
I’m pretty sure there aren’t many proxies for trading palladium. There are palladium futures and to the best of my knowledge, PALL is either the only ETF or at least the most activity traded direct play ETF on palladium. Maybe others could chime in if they are aware of any trading proxy.
@rsotc : PALL is not available to short , Can I take /PA ?
/PA broke below 1718, triggering a sell signal shortly after the post earlier today, good for a 1% or $1,700 drop/profit (per contract) so far. Still favoring a swing down to the 1610-1677 support/target zone although I should point out that it has just hit a minor support level where a reaction is likely.
/PA has been kind enough to offer another objective short entry on the bounce off that 1705 minor support level posted in the last update above, bouncing back to the 1718 R level (/PA just printed 1717.80, can’t ask for much more than that). Another objective short entry here with stops somewhat above 1720-1722.
$0.05 (5 cents) per troy ounce ($5 per contract)
Can someone explain this ? I trade ES mainly and tick on ES is 12.5 $, here its $5 per whole contract ?
Hi Randy, today we have TSLA earning as well. It looks like it’s current at weekly resistance. Can you please provide a quick chart analysis? Thanks!
Any chart requests for securities not covered in the post above a comment thread should be posted in the trading room, tagging the post with my username @rsotc. Thanks for your understanding.
Ok, got it. Thanks Randy!
As there were also inquired on TSLA within the trading room, I covered it in the video that was just published on the home page.
Thanks Randy. I was shorting TSLA a couple days ago into the earnings as the weekly resistance seems to be pretty solid. Now it’s up by so much, and based on the previous trading range you pointed out in the new video, maybe I should cover it. And somehow we don’t have much profit-taking going on. Tough luck on this one
TSLA closed the AH session at 306 which puts in smack in back in the middle of the previous trading range from early 2017-early 2019. That’s what I call ‘no man’s land’ on a stock; trading between support & resistance. Had I been caught on a short position on TSLA tonight, I would wait about 30-60 minutes after the opening bell tomorrow (to let the order imbalances clear out) and then set a GTC stop-loss order just above the HOD at that point. That would limit any losses to what had already been incurred up to that point yet allow… Read more »
Thanks Randy!
apologizes for being a little late to the party, the bear flag still looks to be in play? I’m currently trying to get a good entry for a swing down on NQ
I don’t believe so. It appears that those 60-min flags on /NQ & /ES, although still taking the shape of a bear flag pattern, are now too large in relation to the ‘flagpole’ which is the impulsive leg down leading up to the formation of the flag patterns, to be considered bear flag continuation patterns any more.
Of course, that in no way means that the indexes can’t or won’t make impulsive breakdowns below those oversized flags & drop from there, just that the symmetry on the flag patterns is no longer ideal.
@rsotc
The feature is great , is there a chance it can be done on mobile too? I dont I saw that on mobile device
If you are referring to the new features to the home page post comment section such as email subscriptions to be notified of new comments & replies, that feature should be working on mobile devices as well. As new software to the website has the potential to cause a conflict, the new features have been temporarily turned off recently & may continue to be until any & all bugs have been worked out but let me know if you don’t see the extra buttons/icons at the top of the comment sections on your mobile device going forward.
Shorted Palladium and Platinum – Palladium was playing with this trendline all night, may go higher, but I feel ok with it rn
https://invst.ly/moq3z