Swing Trade Ideas 6-24-26

Here is a summary of the technical swing trade update from Randy Phinney of Right Side of the Chart, detailing the outlook for various major assets and sectors based on chart patterns.

Equity Markets (QQQ & S&P 500) [00:02:43]

• The Setup: Significant sell signals triggered when QQQ broke its major primary uptrend line from March. This was supported by the S&P 500 breaking down slightly ahead of the tech sector.

• Current Action: The tech-heavy QQQ hit the first downside price target, experienced a brief bounce back up to the initial entry point, and is now consolidating between support & resistance.

• Outlook: It looks like a classic “dead cat bounce” context. Shorting remains objective, but waiting for an actual break of nearby reaction lows under $715 is the preferred tactical entry point. If the area breaks, targets shift down to $664.87.

Semiconductors (SOXX & Nvidia) [00:07:05]

• The Setup: A minor trendline broke following a technical divergent high on the 60-minute chart, signaling an objective add-on or entry point for short positions.

• Nvidia (NVDA): Nvidia hit a second lower price target, rebounded to its breakdown zone, and is experiencing a temporary push higher.

• Outlook: The weekly charts show a potential bearish engulfing pattern forming. Combined with historic high volume, this signal typically indicates a macro-level topping process after a prolonged bull market. Downside targets remain wide open.

Bitcoin & MicroStrategy (MSTR) [00:13:23]

• The Setup: MicroStrategy recently hit and broke past its first technical downside target (T1). Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin and related ETFs are bouncing near structural support.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): Rebound risk is present because of technical positive divergence on the chart. However, if the broader bearish layout holds, a deeper unwind towards a ultimate downside target (T4) is expected.

• Outlook: Phinney views Bitcoin as a leveraged momentum trade lacking core value. He notes that the rise of spot ETFs and futures heavily ties it to Wall Street and tax regulations, erasing its original appeal as a detached alternative to fiat currency. He expects a broader crypto decline to follow structural breakdowns.

Precious Metals & US Dollar Index (GLD, SLV, GDX, DXY) [00:26:50]

• Gold (GLD) & Silver (SLV): Both metals peaked with a vertical, high-volume “buying climax” drop that marked a macro trend shift. Gold is sitting at a key structural support zone with clear positive divergence on the daily and hourly charts, making a starter long position an objective, calculated risk. Silver has dropped to a support zone offering an objective long entry here and/or down to the bottom of the support zone, about another 6% or so.

• Gold Miners (GDX): GDX reached its second lower target and is within a broad technical “buy zone” ranging down to $67.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): The dollar completed a long-term bottoming pattern, breaking through resistance to hit a target near 101.85. Because it has formed a short-term negative divergence, a small pullback is likely before it continues moving upward.

Crude Oil (USO) [00:35:07]

• The Setup: Crude oil is exhibiting a clear bullish falling wedge pattern alongside positive divergence on the 60-minute chart.

• Outlook: This setup presents a solid risk-to-reward scenario for a long position at current support levels or upon a breakout. There is technical potential for a bounce up toward a maximum target, offering roughly 20% upside in the commodity.

Defensive Blue Chips & Packaged Foods [00:39:05]

• The Strategy: The broader consumer staples sector is a mixed bag—utilities and healthcare have already exhausted their upside potential. Instead, investors should selectively target blue-chip packaged food companies with secure dividend yields to hedge against tech sector volatility.

• Individual Picks:

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) & Campbell’s (CPB): Hit initial upside targets and still show solid progress toward main target zones.

  • JM Smucker (SJM): Triggered a sharp short-squeeze rally after failing to hold a low breakout, resulting in a classic “bear trap.”

  • Lifevantage (LFVN): Completely met its ultimate profit goal for a massive 145% gain, making a re-entry objective after a clean consolidation.

  • Conagra (CAG) & Lamb Weston (LW): Exhibiting quiet, steady upward drift out of long-term bear market cycles.