To summarize a few of the key points from yesterday’s market wrap-up video, here are a few things that I’ll be watching for today in order to either keep my near-term bearish outlook intact or dampen it, should these events fail to occur with the markets continuing to build on yesterday’s gains:
- QQQ: a move back below the 130-ema on the 60-minute time frame as well as the 106.80 level. Also a move back below the zero line on the MACD signal line as well as the 13-33 ema (those two might take a day or so to occur, assuming the recent bounce is faded).
- SPY : 60-minute time frame- Failure at the purple minor downtrend line shown of the recent (4/20) highs as well as a move back below the 207.00 level & ultimately the 130-ema. As with the QQQ, a cross back below the zero line on the same two 60-minute trend indicators, which also might take a couple of days.
- GDX & GLD: Both need to close below their respective wedge patterns on the daily time frames today.
- UUP: Today’s pop in GLD & GDX (but surprisingly not oil) is most likely due to the fact that the dollar is trading lower, which is almost certainly due to the fact that $DXY/UUP closed right at those downtrend lines/top of the falling wedge patterns that were highlighted. This pullback, so far, is simply a reaction from the initial tag of resistance from below. UUP has support at 24.25 which I would expect to contain any pullback in the dollar, followed by a continued move higher & the dollar ultimately breaking above that falling wedge pattern, which should bring down GLD, GDX, USO, XOP, XLE, etc..