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U.S. Stock Market Analysis (video)

Outlook for the US stock market via the leading index tracking ETFs as well as the top components of the Nasdaq 100.

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Apr 18, 2016 3:46pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. GetItRiight April 18, 2016 4:32 pm at 4:32 pm

    If Qs are the ones leading the market, tomorrow should be a good day for us shorts as both IBM and Netflix are trading sharply lower on earnings results.

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    • lee1 April 19, 2016 3:59 am at 3:59 am

      Futures ramping nicely at 4 am. All time highs and more just around the corner.

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  2. joefriday April 18, 2016 5:47 pm at 5:47 pm

    Nice overview Randy.. thanks!

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  3. mowens707 April 18, 2016 8:26 pm at 8:26 pm

    Bought May QQQ 112 puts near end of the day as a play on IBM and NFLX earnings.

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  4. snipertrader April 19, 2016 8:36 am at 8:36 am

    @rsotc – Good overview of the situation on the indexes and some key underlying’s. All need to keep into context that even though this rally seems like it’s going on forever, %-wise it’s ferocity to the upside has essentially stalled out the past few weeks. They can keep it grinding with sector rotation under the covers as they have been which over time creates a broad based rally from an internals perspective. But keeping a close watch on the components of the NAS100 is a good exercise due to the heavy hitting nature many of them have on overall indexes and sentiment.

    One thing which also works in favor of the bulls I think is that sentiment does not appear to be overly bullish still. The combination of neutral and bearish sentiment may provide enough “fuel” for more to convert to the bullish camp. There are numerous sentiment surveys but perhaps this one is most widely known / watched …

    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

    And there still seems to exist a lot of general doubt and disbelief in this rally and many are just waiting and watching for the “plunge” ( as has been the case for the last two months ).

    At some point a retrace will occur, but they’ve pushed this so high now on sector rotation to really attack some of the topping pattern ( H&S from last June ) on SPX and DJI and those ATH’s are in reach on them. The fact that DJT and RUT are lagging behind with NAS100 also lagging but not as much is a negative of course. But I figure in the game of perception, and as I’ve been pointing out previously, the major indexes for the US that get talked about broadly in the news are DJI and SPX.

    These are times to remain observant on a daily basis even though the markets are trying to lull everyone into a sense of complacency or boredom. What the bulls have accomplished is impressive but things can turn quickly once they are ready and at some stage we will get a retrace … we just do not know from what levels yet.

    Even if the bullish case continues to peck away at the bearish as you described the criteria for that, remaining observant on an incremental basis is the only way to fully gauge and assess the validity of that potential outcome. And if one actually converts to the net bullish camp, to actually shift portfolio positioning to such a net bullish posture must be engaged with on one’s own terms rather than the markets terms ( i.e. proper R/R entries ). As everyone knows, even in a bull market there are downturns which provide proper R/R entries.

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    • rsotc April 19, 2016 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm

      Very well said snipertrader.

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