Swing Trade Ideas & Trading Tips 1-6-26

Here is a structured summary of the market update video from Right Side of the Chart, detailing the overall market outlook, broad indices, and specific securities analyzed.

Market Outlook & Strategy

• Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis [00:00:41]: The speaker addresses an upcoming macro/fundamental video but highlights that fundamentals only dictate long-term movements (measured in months or years). For swing trading and active trading, fundamentals are counterproductive because they create a bias against current price momentum.

• The 2026 Environment [00:03:02]: 2026 is projected to remain heavily a “stockpicker’s market.” Spreading bets through asset allocation across stocks, bonds, crypto, and commodities is emphasized over tracking or holding single indices.

• Market Rotation & Sector Safe Havens [00:32:43]: A transition is expected when high-flying tech sectors exhaust themselves. Institutional “smart money” is predicted to rotate out of growth and shift into conservative, defensive dividend-paying “grandma stocks” (Consumer Staples) as safe havens.

Market Indices & Asset Classes

S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) [00:03:22]

• Key Developments: The market has been trapped in a narrow, roughly 5% sideways trading range for several months. While it is flirting with all-time highs, the momentum features negative divergences and overbought conditions.

• Expectation: Any breakdown below current support levels would shift mid-to-long-term indicators, driving major capital outflows from retirement accounts and institutional pension plans.

Nasdaq 100 ETF (Ticker: QQQ) [00:07:30] & [00:54:42]

• Key Developments: The tech-heavy index is described as “wobbling even worse” than the S&P 500, dropping to the midpoint of its respective trading range rather than threatening new highs.

• Expectation: Tech and AI are labeled as a risk bubble vulnerable to a hard correction. The Magnificent 8/9/10 stocks are slated for a closer look in future updates.

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures / ETF (Ticker: ZB / TLT) [00:23:04] & [00:30:37]

• Key Developments: Treasuries have traded very reliably via technical setups, yielding a high success rate over the past year by alternating between short and long swings. Position sizing is beta-adjusted higher (2x to 3x standard size) due to lower default volatility.

Consumer Defensive Trade Ideas

The video features an in-depth look at four conservative Consumer Staples charts on the weekly time frame. Each is noted for being out-of-favor during the tech/AI rally but positioned well for a defensive rotation.

General Mills, Inc. (Ticker: GIS) [00:28:16]

• Analysis: Described as being in a “death spiral” with no immediate reversal signals, but extreme oversold conditions and positive divergences are heavily building.

• Key Levels: Strategy favors waiting for a potential minor drop to the $41.00 support zone or a solid weekly close above the steep historical downtrend line.

The Campbell Soup Company (Ticker: CPB) [00:35:41]

• Analysis: Exhibits a clean, bullish falling wedge pattern with potential positive divergence forming on the PPO indicator.

• Key Levels: Long-term support sits around $25.20. Traders can scale in at current levels or wait for a breakdown toward support, using a potential trendline breakout to complete a full position. Targets are set at $29.77 and a maximum long-term bounce target at $37.80.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation (Ticker: KMBB / KMB) [00:41:04]

• Analysis: Considered a “catch-a-falling-knife” long entry because it lacks explicit breakout verification, though a case is made for an objective long entry with the stock trading at a key long-term support level.

• Key Levels: Long entry target sits at the $97.00 support level, which marks a multi-year reaction low. Targets are placed at $110.30 and $116.50. A stop-loss is recommended somewhat below $97.00relative to one’s price target(s).

Mondelez International, Inc. (Ticker: MDLZ) [00:41:04]

• Analysis: Features higher lows on indicators (RSI and PPO) contrasted against lower lows in equity price, representing an unconfirmed positive divergence.

• Key Levels: Objective long entry lies within the $53.00 to $55.00 support range. Preferred profit-taking target sits roughly 13% higher, where the price meets the overhead 200-day moving average.

Tech Sector Focus

Adobe Inc. (Ticker: ADBE) [00:48:14]

• Analysis: Re-evaluated after a steep 48% drop from its highs. It recently experienced a “false breakdown” below a major support level ($328.47), followed by an explosive recovery. This move effectively trapped late short sellers (“Johnny-come-latelies”) and purged weak long positions. Adobe subsequently broke out of a bullish falling wedge pattern.

• Key Levels: The stock recently back-tested its broken wedge trendline and support. It is highly favored at current levels for a swing toward its upper target. If it definitively reclaims its 200-day moving average, it is expected to rally smoothly to its final target, offering an estimated 26% upside with a 7% stop-loss positioned below recent lows.