Swing Trade Ideas 7-24-26

Here is the updated summary and ticker list with stock symbols cleaned up (no $ symbol), retaining the $ prefix exclusively for indexes such as $SPX, $NDX, and $BTC.

Video Summary & Market Overview

In this mid-session update for Friday, July 24, 2026, Randy Phinney provides technical updates on key market indexes, semiconductors, crypto proxies, packaged foods, and recent earnings calls.

Key themes discussed include:

• Broad Market Indexes: The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX / Invesco QQQ Trust / QQQ) broke down below a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. While testing T1 support with a minor 60-minute positive divergence, the overarching technical posture remains bearish, favoring an eventual breakdown toward lower targets.

• Semiconductor Sector: Semiconductor ETFs (SOXX, XSD) remain under pressure following a weekly high-level bearish PPO crossover and a weekly bearish engulfing candle. The sector is positioned for potential further downside targets before establishing a major cyclical low.

• Crypto & Proxies: Bitcoin ($BTC / /BTC) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) were highlighted as aggressive short entries following backtests of resistance, with potential structural unwinding risk if key support breaks.

• Consumer Staples & Packaged Foods: Continued selective bullish coverage on packaged food stocks (PPC, JJSF, SJM) offering favorable risk/reward setups and dividend yields while waiting for potential sector rotation.

Securities & Topics Covered

Indexes & Sector ETFs

• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ / $NDX) (00:02:17)

  • Summary: Daily chart broke below a symmetrical triangle. Short position T1 support zone (gap backfill from early May) was hit and tested multiple times. While a 60-minute positive divergence exists, buyers are displaying decreasing vigor. QQQ is poised to close the week (today) on or close enough to that support level that we’ll have to wait until next week to see whether or not it will clearly break or hold, with another rally off this key support.

  • Objective Entries & Targets: Plan A maintains a breakdown toward T2 and eventual T4 / 200-day moving average at ~$636. If a breakout occurs above the symmetrical triangle upper boundary, scale out/stop short exposure (Plan B).

• iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) (00:10:24)

  • Summary: Down ~23–24% from all-time highs. Confirmed a high-level weekly bearish PPO crossover and a weekly bearish engulfing candle off the March 2025 uptrend line.

  • Price Targets: T3 coincides with the 200-day moving average (~33% drop from highs). Longer-term weekly downside targets sit near major horizontal price support at $270 (~60% correction in a broader bear market scenario).

• SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) (00:14:22)

  • Summary: More equal-weighted and diversified (43 holdings) compared to the heavily concentrated SOXX. Down ~27% from highs, testing horizontal support drawn back in May.

  • Key Levels: Currently testing primary horizontal price support. A breakdown below this level opens risk toward the 40-week exponential moving average (~34% total drop from peak).

Individual Stocks & Crypto Proxies

• Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) (00:29:32)

  • Summary: Post-earnings short call played out with a ~17% drop.

  • Key Levels: Currently sitting at minor support around $310.60 with PPO crossing into bearish territory. Not an objective buy/knife-catch candidate at present.

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (00:30:24)

  • Summary: Post-earnings drop of ~7%, currently hugging its 200-day moving averages.

  • Key Levels: Line-in-the-sand (BOD) support sits at $313.78. A breakdown below triggers further downside; regaining the uptrend line and zero-line PPO crossover required for a bullish reversal.

• International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) (00:35:25)

  • Summary: Post-earnings bounce of ~7% off key support after stop adjustment. Clinging to a positive divergence.

  • Price Targets: T1 hit; potential T2 upside target active if broader markets hold.

• Intel Corp. (INTC) (00:35:00)

  • Summary: Bearish post-earnings call played out, down ~7.5% following release.

• Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) (00:35:29)

  • Summary: Bearish post-earnings call played out following prior technical sell signals, dropping ~7%.

• MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) (00:37:36)

  • Summary: Highlighted as an aggressive short entry at backtest resistance following a break of its downtrend line last week. Down (profitable) about 14% since then.

  • Outlook: High degree of leverage creates risk of forced Bitcoin liquidation on further downside.

• Bitcoin ($BTC / /BTC) (00:41:06)

  • Summary: Brief breakout of a bullish falling wedge encountering rejection at resistance with PPO signal line remaining below zero.

  • Key Levels: Must break below recent reaction lows to invalidate positive divergence and confirm accelerated downside.

• Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) (00:54:13)

  • Summary: Successfully bounced off $488 support with positive divergence following a backtest of its bullish falling wedge.

  • Price Targets: Reached T3 target; T4 resistance acts as a strict exit/profit-taking level.

• Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. (PPC) (01:08:08)

  • Summary: Bullish falling wedge pattern consolidating near key horizontal support in the packaged foods sector.

  • Objective Entry & Targets: Objective long entry near $26.65 support. Breakout trigger above $30.32 targeting the $34.10 level and 200-day moving average.

• J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF) (01:10:33)

  • Summary: Formed positive divergence in a downtrend with a ~4.2% dividend yield.

  • Key Levels: Primary breakout level at $87.875 (200-day moving average), targeting $98.23 (~28% gain potential).

• The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) (01:11:43)

  • Summary: Bear trap/false breakdown recovery triggered a long setup yielding ~27% plus ~4% dividend.

  • Key Levels: Approaching final price target near major overhead resistance; recommend trailing stops to protect gains.

Comma-Delineated Ticker List

$SPX,$NDX, $VIX,$BTC, /NQ, /ES, /BTC, QQQ, SOXX, XSD, TSLA, GOOGL, IBM, INTC, FIX, MSTR, LMT, PPC, JJSF, SJM, KHC, URRI, NEM, BMR, COIN, RIOT, MARA, HIVE