A look at the US stock market, crude oil & gold mining sector.
Great overview Randy.. as usual..
Great video, thanks Randy
Thank you Randy,
Wow while watching the video GDX and the mining sector just gave everything back. Just like you have mentioned in the video it is just a matter of time.
Ruben. Y.W. I also noticed GDX move down sharply right after the video. We had a few inquires as to shorting the miners in the trading room but I just didn’t see an objective entry earlier. Divergence in itself isn’t a reason to short or go long, just as overbought or oversold isn’t a stand-alone reason to enter a trade either. However, we now have a potential bearish engulfing candlestick on GDX (and a potential doji on GLD, which would need additional bearish confirmation next week).
With that being said, I think the case for an AGGRESSIVE entry on GDX can be made here with a stop before the close today IF GDX rallies back up and doesn’t finalize this bearish engulfing stick by the close. An additional sell signal or more conventional entry could come on Monday if GDX prints that bearish engulfing stick today & follows through to the downside on Monday.
Randy, thanks for the excellent video and explanations. Just wanted to comment about the SPX not having corrected 20% therfore does not qualify as a bear market correction. The NYSE which is a cash index (not futures driven) did have a 20.58% correction from the high on 5/21/2015-1/20/2016 . It has been documented that the FED enters the market and buys futures on the SPX and NDX when the NYSE corrects about 19%.
Dont know which index is used to define the beginning of a bear market. Just food for thought!
Good point. Some broad indexes, such as the $RUT (small caps) & $MID (mid-caps) did exceed the generally accepted 20% bear market decline with the Nasdaq Composite coming within less that 1% of a 20% drop. The Wilshire 5000 fell about 18% so like the $SPX, some indices just missed that definition of a bear market (20% drop). I’ve also heard the definition of a bear market as a general trend of falling stock prices & with both the large caps ($SPX) and small caps ($RUT) peaking about a year ago & making a series of lower highs & lower lows since, I think it would be safe to say that the US stock market has been in a bear market for about a year now. Bear or bull, I still think there is a lot of potential in 2016 trading both long & short the best looking trade setups & sectors.
Thanks Randy, Great job as usual.
Interesting day and so far so good for shorts. Of course we have to be prepared for all scenarios, but there’s a strong likelihood that SPY will retrace to 208.85 area. This has served as support before and happens to represent a 38% Fib retracement. That would be a natural area for bulls to try to put up a fight to regain momentum and shoot for new all time high.
Good luck to all.
Thx for that feedback TXUTrader. Agree 208.85 (I’m actually looking at 208.50 as an important level) looks very likely in the coming sessions. Looks like the market just started another leg down after trying to hold this morning’s previous reaction lows (SPY & QQQ… IWM yet to break the LOD so far but will likely follow suit).
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