Weekly Market Prep: QQQ & SOXX Support Levels, Fed Decision & Big Tech Earnings Right Side Of The Chart

Here is a summary of the market catalysts, technical levels, and key macro risks to watch this week.

1. Technical Levels & Market Reaction

QQQ Key Support: Keep a close eye on the bottom of the first price target (T1) zone on the 60-minute chart around 676.92, which successfully held its initial test around 11:00 AM ET today.
SOXX Key Support: Watch last Friday’s low on the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which also held up during morning testing.
Filter Out Event “Noise”: Treat any early breakouts or breakdowns with a grain of salt until the Federal Reserve decision and the post-FOMC volatility pass, alongside earnings from the “Big 4” tech leaders.
Downside Targets: While a breakdown below current support levels in QQQ and SOXX could hold before these events, the probability of hitting the next lower price targets rises significantly if both indices remain below support after the Fed meeting and mega-cap earnings have cleared.

Wednesday Rate Decision: The Fed’s two-day policy meeting concludes Wednesday. Policymakers are closely monitoring geopolitical tensions and energy volatility for potential inflationary pressures.
Interest Rate Outlook: Markets currently price in roughly a 66% chance that the Fed holds rates steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, there is roughly a 31% to 33% chance of a rate hike if inflation concerns resurface.
Fed Division: While Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to favor keeping policy unchanged, hawkish committee members could argue for tighter monetary policy to preempt supply-chain or energy-driven price pressures.

“Big 4” Mega-Cap Reports: A massive slate of corporate earnings is led by Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN). (All four reporting after the market close, with MSFT & META on Wednesday followed by APPL & AMZN on Thursday).
AI Infrastructure Spend: Wall Street will strictly evaluate quarterly guidance and heavy capital expenditures on AI data centers to ensure these massive infrastructure investments are translating into near-term revenue growth.

Oil Pulldown: Crude oil prices dropped to start the week following news of a tentative pause in Middle East hostilities. Lower energy prices offer immediate relief to inflation-weary equity markets, but geopolitical developments remain a fluid wildcard for broader sentiment.