Technical analysis & swing trade ideas on the major stock indices as well as various sectors & individual stocks including VIXY, the private debt market & BDC’s, wheat, NVO, LLY, & more.
AI Summary:
This video from Right Side of the Chart provides a technical update on major market indexes, specific swing trade ideas in the healthcare and lithium sectors, and an in-depth look at the private credit market.
Market Indexes & Internals
S&P 500 (SPY) & NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): The market remains below the bearish engulfing candles from the previous week. While retail “buy the dip” sentiment is strong, technical sell signals remain intact. A significant breakdown is not expected until the lows from the previous Friday are taken out. [00:26]
Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (RSP): This index shows a “perfect double top” and a bearish rising wedge, suggesting that while the market-cap-weighted indexes are near highs, the broader market is stalling. [04:00]
Market Breadth: Analysis shows a deterioration in internals, with only 37 out of 100 NASDAQ stocks trading green during the session, indicating a thinning market. [06:06]
Individual Stock & Sector Trades
Novo Nordisk (NVO): Highlighted as a “bottoming play” at long-term support. Despite bad headlines, the speaker suggests much of the negativity is priced in, looking for a “tennis ball” bounce from current levels. [08:13]
Eli Lilly (LLY): Presented as a short idea. It recently broke below a primary uptrend line and its 200-day moving average (40-week), signaling a potential trend reversal. [11:12]
Lithium Stocks (ALB): Revisiting a previous trade that hit its 16% profit target. It has pulled back to the 200-day moving average and may offer a secondary entry if it can punch through the $43 level. [13:55]
Wheat (WEAT): Remains at multi-decade long-term support with massive bullish divergence. The speaker views this as a tactical long opportunity as it breaks out of a near-term price channel. [29:45]
Private Credit & Business Development Companies (BDCs)
Sector Warning: The speaker introduces a new watchlist for BDCs (Business Development Companies), warning that while traditional credit spreads are tight, these private lenders may be masking risk through “mark to fantasy” accounting. [16:42]
Key Tickers: Analysis of Blackstone (BXSL) [24:06], Ares Capital (ARCC) [25:35], and the BIZD ETF [26:42]. Many of these are at or breaking key support levels, which could be a “canary in the coal mine” for the broader financial system.
Volatility & Outlook
VIX (Volatility Index): The VIX has broken out of a downtrend and is currently back-testing. A move above recent highs in volatility would likely coincide with SPY dropping toward the 603.90 target. [32:32]