• $GOLD - Sep 22 201420140922
  • GLD - Sep 22 201420140922
  • SLV - Sep 19 201420140919
  • $SILVER - Sep 19 201420140919
  • GDX - Sep 17 201420140917
  • CORN - Sep 11 201420140911
  • HIBB - Sep 08 201420140908
  • X - Sep 04 201420140904
  • WEAT - Sep 03 201420140903
  • NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • VHI - Aug 22 201420140822
  • ANR - Aug 19 201420140819
  • KATE - Aug 12 201420140812
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • GMCR - Aug 08 201420140808
  • LYV - Aug 06 201420140806
  • ALK - Aug 06 201420140806
  • BXS - Aug 01 201420140801
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUQ - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AXP - Jul 25 201420140725
  • CSGP - Jul 24 201420140724
  • HAIN - Jul 21 201420140721
  • SIL - Jul 18 201420140718
  • TNK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • QLGC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • OSTK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • KOL - Jul 17 201420140717
  • CAS - Jul 17 201420140717
  • Z - Jul 09 201420140709
  • YUM - Jul 09 201420140709
  • YELP - Jul 09 201420140709
  • XOM - Jul 09 201420140709
  • WFC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • TAN - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SYNA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SUSS - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SSI - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SPB - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SNDK - Jul 09 201420140709
  • RAD - Jul 09 201420140709
  • PRAA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • PAA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • ORLY - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NTRS - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NFLX - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MU - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MRK - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MIC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MFC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • LUV - Jul 09 201420140709
  • LL - Jul 09 201420140709
  • HON - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GTAT - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GRA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • FCH - Jul 09 201420140709
  • AVGO - Jul 09 201420140709
  • ABG - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NLY - Jul 03 201420140703
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • GPL - Jun 23 201420140623
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • GOOG - May 27 201420140527
  • ODP - May 20 201420140520
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • VPRT - Apr 30 201420140430
  • POWI - Apr 30 201420140430
  • HIMX - Apr 30 201420140430
  • P - Apr 28 201420140428
  • QIHU - Apr 07 201420140407
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • SIRI - Mar 25 201420140325
  • GIS - Mar 25 201420140325
  • ETFC - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CVS - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CMG - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CBOE - Mar 25 201420140325
  • AMTD - Mar 25 201420140325
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • ZNGA - Mar 20 201420140320
  • WLT - Mar 20 201420140320
  • TOPS - Mar 20 201420140320
  • NRP - Mar 20 201420140320
  • CLF - Mar 20 201420140320
  • BTU - Mar 20 201420140320
  • SINA - Mar 06 201420140306
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214
  • SBUX - Feb 04 201420140204
  • CME - Feb 04 201420140204
  • F - Feb 03 201420140203
  • SPLK - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HTZ - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HLF - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HIG - Jan 21 201420140121
  • FB - Jan 21 201420140121
  • CYH - Jan 21 201420140121
  • BBY - Jan 16 201420140116
  • CSIQ - Jan 10 201420140110
  • YZC - Jan 06 201420140106
  • RNO - Jan 03 201420140103
  • GCAP - Jan 03 201420140103


Completed Trades

Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.

Sep 082014
 

HIBB daily Sept 8thThe HIBB (Hibbett Sports Inc) short trade hit the first target today for a 13% gain. HIBB came within 3 cents of hitting the first target, T1 at 43.48, exactly one month ago today before making a failed attempt to backfill the large gap and although it took a bit longer than I had expected, the first target was finally reached today. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering stops, depending on your trading plan. T2 (40.35) remains the final target.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of HIBB

Note: New trade ideas and market updated have been far & few between lately. This is a reflection of both my own trading activity, or more accurately the lack thereof, as well as the fact that I’m just not finding many very attractive long setups with solid R/R profile. Although I do have a considerable watchlist of short trade ideas, the current uptrend in the broad market without any clear short-term bearish pattern formations dampens the R/R on even the best looking short patterns. I’m waiting for some half-decent signs of a likely reverse or even a short-term sell signal in the broad markets before taking on any more short exposure although I may take a shot at an APPL short, should I fail to be impressed with their latest product announcements tomorrow as a bearish technical case for the stock has recently been outlined.

Sep 042014
 

The X (U.S. Steel Corp) Long-Term Trade has now hit the final target, T4 at 40.50, for a gain of 127% since entry. X is a good example of the difference between the regular Long Trade Ideas and the Long-term Trade Idea. As stated back in the original post on May 3, 2013 when X was added as an Active Long-term Trade: “… I am adding X as a Long-Term Trade Idea.  The Long-Term Trades category included trades that have relative long expected holding periods (measured in months or even years) and typically have price targets well into the double-digits.  Often these Long-Term Trade ideas will also appear in the normal Long Setups or Active Long Trades categories, which includes the bulk of the trade ideas on RSOTC.com.  Most of those trades are swing trades with an expected holding period which can be expected to last days, week, or months but with a typical holding period of around 6 weeks or so.”

Consider booking full profits at this time (X has actually now surpassed the final target and is trading well above T4 now at 40.76 as I type) as the R/R no longer warrants remaining long in this trade. Although not all Long-term trade ideas are successful or reach triple-digit gains, X is a good example of the difference between the typical swing trade ideas and the Long-term Trade ideas shared on RSOTC. This trade took 16 months to play out and like all Long-term trade ideas, patience and relatively wide stops are required for such trades with above average holding periods and return potential. The previous & updated weekly charts are posted in chronological order below for a quick visual how this trade played out. (note: T4 was added as the final target back on Sept 18, 2013 at the time the first target was hit).

Sep 032014
 

Today both CORN & WEAT are trading below their recent consolidation ranges, which was mentioned a both a possibility as well as a potential criterion for those preferring a tight stop on these trades. In the previous (original) post on CORN, it was stated that an entry at that time would be somewhat aggressive as CORN has significant resistance not far overhead at the top of the July 21st gap, which is where the recent pop in CORN reversed when prices failed at that level.

As with the related WEAT ETF trade, today’s break below the recent trading ranges in both ETFs can be used as a tight stop for more active traders or those preferring to keep a tight rein on losses. However, as also stated in the previous post, CORN was also added as a Long-term Trade Idea with a suggested stop some below the 340 area on $CORN (spot corn) prices. As with the previous weekly chart & this updated weekly chart, the two most likely scenarios are drawn with the green arrows that show prices either breaking above the recent consolidation zone (much less likely now) or continuing lower to the S1 support area around 340, which is now the more likely to the two. Note how the MACD line is starting to curl up but has yet to make a bullish crossover, thereby yet to confirm the potential positive divergence that is forming although it does look likely by if/when price fall to the 340 level. Note: The chart of $CORN is an End of Day (EOD) chart of spot corn prices, meaning that the chart is only updated after the close of trading each day. Hence, I will use the daily chart of CORN (ETF) as well as corn futures in determining my entry & exit points.

As CORN is now trading well below the 25.60 tight stop level, it will be considered stopped out from the Active Long Trades category (typical swing trades) but will remain as both an Active Long-term Trade & Long-term Setup until/unless we get a solid weekly close on $CORN below the 340 support level.  As the daily chart of WEAT is very similar to CORN, I will also consider the Active Long Trade on WEAT stopped out on the break of support while leaving WEAT on as an Active Long-term Trade idea for now with stops TBD soon.

Click here to view the live, annotated weekly chart of $CORN (EOD spot corn prices) or click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of CORN (ETF).

Aug 292014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM

 

Aug 222014
 
VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

The VHI (Valhi Inc) long trade has now hit the second price target, T2 at 7.72, for a gain of 40.4%. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. As mentioned earlier, this recent move higher has been confirmed on volume with this most recent sharp move on increased volume actually starting the day before this bullish article from Zachs Equity Research was published. T4 remains the final target for now but again, consider at least raising stops to protect profits if holding out for T3 and/or T4. Longer-term traders might consider a stop below the lows put in earlier this month while more active traders might prefer more aggressive stops.

This 4-year, 2-day period chart shows the track record on VHI with 3 out of the 4 trades (including this one) being successful and all three producing gains well into the double-digits. The first short trade in early 2012 hit the 3rd & final target for a 41.3% gain in less than 3 months and reversed sharply upon reaching the final target level. The second & last trade on VHI, also a short trade, was initiated in early 2013 and hit the second target (T2) for a 19.7% gain and continued to fall about a third of the way to T3 before reversing.  In late May, VHI was added as a speculative/aggressive long trade which was stopped out in June. VHI was once again added as an aggressive long entry on the breakout above 5.50 in late June and still looks promising from a longer-term perspective although the stock is quite overbought at this time.

Aug 222014
 

After falling mere pennies shy of T2 back on July 7th, VHI is once again making a run at that resistance/target level, coming within 4 cents of T2 earlier today while trading volumes have been increasing lately (a bullish sign). A solid break and close above T2 would open the door for a move to the 3rd & possibly the 4th & final target soon.

There really aren’t many new developments to report on the markets or with the Long Trade ideas other than the fact that I plan to move to the PWE long trade to the Completed Trades category as it had exceeded its previously suggested stop (both a solid move & close below 7.40) the day after the last update on Aug 4th. All trade ideas, winners or losers, are updated when removed for archiving purposes but I need to post the PWE trade removal under a separately tagged post for categorical purposes (email notifications will not be sent as that will be an administrative & not a time-sensitive post). There are also several Active Short Trades that I plan to remove as they have either exceeded a suggested stop or no longer look compelling from an R/R perspective. Those closed trades will be sent out in a single post with any relevant notes on the individual trades & an email notification will be sent when posted.

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

Other than the trade updates, I’m still watching GLD closely and so far, so good as GLD has found support just above the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern & the horizontal support zone posted on the 4-hour chart yesterday. My expectation remains that the near-term downtrend in gold prices will reverse soon with a resumption of the intermediate-term uptrend but we’ll most likely have to wait until next week to see if that is the case. As mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, my primary focus & positioning at this time is long gold & the mining sector in anticipation for the next major leg up (although I will start taking defensive measures/reducing my holdings should gold prices break the aforementioned support levels). Although I’m also positioned long with several other individual stocks and ETF, such as select commodity related ETFs,  my overall positioning remains net short with a overweight on the regional bank sector & select financial stocks but as also mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, I do not plan to any more short exposure until/unless prices move back below the upper-most resistance levels (now support) covered in that post. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions regarding any of the Active Trades or Setups listed on the site at this time.

Aug 192014
 
ANR daily Aug 19th

ANR daily Aug 19th

ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) has reached the first profit target, T1 at 4.08, for a 13.3% profit. ANR was added directly as an Active Long Trade just over a week ago and has moved up sharply since, allowing the opportunity to either book quick profits here (full or partial) or raise stops to protect profits, for those holding out for the next target. T2 (4.70) remains the final target at this time although additional targets may be added to the ANR trade depending on how the coal stocks trade going forward (see Thurday’s post on ANR for the notes & charts of the coal sector).

I just completed a comprehensive video that covers my three main themes for 2014 & likely heading into 2015 including the gold & silver mining sector, an overview of the US equity markets, and select commodities including the agricultural and the coal sector. The video is currently being processed & uploaded and should be published within the next 30 minutes although I also have a technician en route to repair some issues with my internet connection that could take me off-line for a while today in which case the video will be posted later this afternoon.

FYI- In addition to ANR hitting the first target today, another coal stock trade setup, ACI (Arch Coal) has triggered an entry today. Click here to view the previous notes & live chart on ACI.