• SLV - Jan 28 201520150128
  • $SILVER - Jan 28 201520150128
  • $GOLD - Jan 28 201520150128
  • GLD - Jan 28 201520150128
  • GDX - Jan 28 201520150128
  • DUST - Jan 26 201520150126
  • USO - Jan 23 201520150123
  • ABX - Jan 22 201520150122
  • CDE - Jan 12 201520150112
  • WEAT - Jan 09 201520150109
  • CORN - Jan 09 201520150109
  • XVX.TO - Jan 05 201520150105
  • TSLA - Jan 05 201520150105
  • SIL - Jan 05 201520150105
  • SGG - Jan 05 201520150105
  • NEM - Jan 05 201520150105
  • MCP - Jan 05 201520150105
  • LL - Jan 05 201520150105
  • KOL - Jan 05 201520150105
  • KGC - Jan 05 201520150105
  • HMY - Jan 05 201520150105
  • HL - Jan 05 201520150105
  • GDXJ - Jan 05 201520150105
  • EGO - Jan 05 201520150105
  • AUY - Jan 05 201520150105
  • ANV - Jan 05 201520150105
  • AGNC - Jan 05 201520150105


Completed Trades

Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.

Jan 262015
 

The DUST (3x short miners)/GDX pullback trade gapped above the 13.75 resistance/preferred target level today and is will now be moved to the Completed Trades category. With DUST falling shy of my profit target on Friday, the gap today allowed for a more favorable exit price on the trade and a quick 20.6% gain in less than four full trading sessions, that's in addition to any would-be losses or profit give-back on the long mining positions that I was able to book profit on when the charts indicated a pullback was likely.

Although my plan from last week was to add back the long exposure to the mining sector once my pullback target was hit, other than a few core positions in my longer-term accounts (IRA's, etc...), I might hold off on adding back exposure to the sector for now. I'll continue to monitor the metals & miners and will communicate my thoughts as I go but as of right now, my gut tells me to just sit back & watch how the metals & miners trade for a while until adding back exposure to the sector.

 

The charts above are the original 15 minute chart of DUST from last week followed by today's updated 15 minute chart along with the Friday's 60 minute chart of GDX highlighting the most likely scenarios followed by today's updated 60 minute chart.

As today's first few 60 minute candlesticks show, GDX hammered off the first horizontal support line/bounce target shortly after the open today, managing to close right back above the bottom of the ascending price channel (white uptrend line) and moving higher within the channel since. Overall, today's price action has all the signs of a potential reversal in the miners so a GDX long here with a stop below today's lows is certainly objective although again, my personal preference is to sit tight & let the dust settle (no pun intended) before re-engaging the mining sector.

note: For categorical purposes, inverse (short) ETFs are always added to Short Trades Categories (e.g.- Short Setup, Active Short Trade, etc..), even though you will actually go "long" the position in order to short the index or sector of the trade idea. For example, DUST has now been moved to the Completed Short Trade Category along with GDX (as the posts related to any inverse or related leveraged ETFs are also tagged with the more popular 1x long ETF (e.g.- QQQ/QID/QLD/TQQQ/SQQQ or SPY/SSO/SDS/SH, etc...)

Jan 232015
 
GDX 60 minute Jan 22nd

GDX 60 minute Jan 22nd

I'm still expecting a little more downside in GDX at this point. Several potential reversal levels shown here with 20.70 being my preferred correction target, at which point I will most likely have added back all my long exposure to the mining sector if/when we get there. I have placed a sell limit order on my DUST pullback trade just below the aforementioned 13.75 trade (sell limit at 13.67) although I might decide to pull the trigger before then, should I see any developments in the intraday charts that convince me to do so.

Jan 222015
 
ABX daily Jan 22nd

ABX daily Jan 22nd

The ABX (Barrick Gold Corp) long trade has hit the second & final target (T2 at 13.21). As this was the final target, consider booking full profits or at least raising stops if planning to hold ABX as a long-term trend trade or investment.

Regarding the miners in general, GDX is still quite extended while struggling with resistance around the 23.00 area. On Tuesday's post titled "Pullback in the Miners Likely...", I stated that I was only "looking for a pullback to around the 22 area". GDX did indeed pullback yesterday, falling as low as 22.10, close enough for government work although I suspect that we could possibly get one more run down to the 22 area, possibly lower although with the fact that a decent pullback in the miners already occurred (helping to alleviate some of the near-term overbought conditions), I don't believe that the odds favor another short/pullback trade at this time.

Personally I was holding out for a slightly larger pullback before covering (selling) my GDX short (DUST) and adding back exposure to the sector and with GDX still trading below yesterday's high, I will continue to hold DUST until we either get one more thrust lower (targeting the 13.75 area on DUST) or I am stopped out (on a move above yesterday's high of 23.22 in GDX).

Just to reiterate, I remain longer-term bullish on the precious metals & mining sector. Longer-term traders & investors who are also bullish and have been accumulating gold, silver, platinum and/or mining stocks should not be overly concerned with the short-term swing targets and analysis based on intraday charts, other than to possible help time entries/add-ons and in managing/ratcheting up stops.

Remember that a very bullish case, both from a technical and fundamental case was made for the mining sector all the way back on November 7th in this post (click here to view). At the time, GDX had just hammered off of the bottom of a descending broadening wedge (DBW) pattern (bullish price action) on the weekly time frame with strong bullish divergences in place. The first chart below was one of two charts from that post highlighting the pattern (the other chart made a bullish case for the miners based on valuation) and the second chart below is the updated weekly chart of GDX. Note the large volume surge leading into the November lows as well as the high volume on the impulsive move higher since. While I would expect some pullbacks along the way, my expectation remains a continued move higher to at least the top of the large DBW pattern.

Jan 212015
 
SLV daily Jan 21st

SLV daily Jan 21st

SLV (Silver ETF) hit the second & final short-term swing target today. That tag of resistance also corresponded with a kiss of the top of the ascending broadening wedge pattern that was first discussed in the January 9th Precious Metals & Commodities Outlook video.

Once again, I would like to reiterate that I remain longer-term bullish on gold, silver & the mining sector but in light of all of the major precious metals making an near-term overbought run into resistance over the last day or so (the PPLT/platinum long trade also hit T1/resistance yesterday), we may continue to see some additional profit taking and/or sideways consolidation in the miners before a solid resumption of the uptrend. More active swing traders might consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops on SLV while longer-term traders & investors might consider raising stops at this point and strategically adding to their metals and/or mining positions on pullbacks to support.

Jan 212015
 
DUST 1 minute pre-market Jan 21st

DUST 1 minute pre-market Jan 21st

The DUST (3x short gold miners) quick bounce/hedging trade idea posted yesterday is currently indicated to gap slightly below yesterday's LOD (low of day). With gold trading higher overnight (largely as a result of the $USD trading lower), the miners (GDX) have been indicated to gap higher throughout the pre-market session although those gains have started to fade since about 8:30am ET.

With DUST currently trading right around the suggested stop (a few cents below yesterday's LOD of 11.21), my plan is to pull my stop and re-enter it after the first 30 - 60 minutes of trading. The shaded areas on the 1-minute chart below show the after-hours & pre-market trades in DUST. As always, employ stop criteria that are commensurate with your own trading style & risk tolerance.

Jan 202015
 
DUST 15 min Jan 20th

DUST 15 min Jan 20th

DUST could provide a quick trade for those interested in attempting to profit from or hedge against a pullback in the miners. DUST is the 3x leveraged short (bearish) ETF for the gold mining sector and should the miners pullback over the next few days as I suspect, DUST could either provide for a quick, leveraged pure-play on a pullback in the miners or used as a hedge against GDX and/or individual mining positions.

Of course, one could short GDX directly and not worry about the decay as the 3x leveraged DUST is best used only for very short-term trades lasting a few days or less. As stated earlier today, my preferred pullback target for GDX is the 22 area. My current preferred target on DUST is 13.75 with a sell limit about 20 cents below that, as I suspect GDX(DUST) may reverse just above(below) support(resistance), and a stop set just a few cents below today's LOD of 11.21. With DUST currently trading around 11.80, that gives this trade a fairly attractive R/R of about 4.3:1.

Jan 202015
 
ABX daily Jan 20th

ABX daily Jan 20th

ABX (Barrick Gold Corp) has hit the first profit target, T1 at 12.45, for a gain of 5.1% (if taken at the second entry/price posted on Friday following the whipsaw buy signal) or 8.3% (if taken earlier on the whipsaw/false break above 11.48). Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, according to your trading plan. T2 (13.21) remains the final target at this time but as per the update on the PMs & miners earlier today, the odds of a near-term pullback in the mining sector is somewhat elevated at this time.

click here to view the live chart of ABX

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