• NEM - Aug 29 201420140829
  • SLV - Aug 26 201420140826
  • $SILVER - Aug 26 201420140826
  • $GOLD - Aug 26 201420140826
  • GLD - Aug 26 201420140826
  • GDX - Aug 25 201420140825
  • VHI - Aug 22 201420140822
  • ANR - Aug 19 201420140819
  • KATE - Aug 12 201420140812
  • AUY - Aug 12 201420140812
  • GMCR - Aug 08 201420140808
  • LYV - Aug 06 201420140806
  • ALK - Aug 06 201420140806
  • X - Aug 01 201420140801
  • BXS - Aug 01 201420140801
  • SSRI - Jul 30 201420140730
  • PAAS - Jul 30 201420140730
  • KGC - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HMY - Jul 30 201420140730
  • HL - Jul 30 201420140730
  • EGO - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AUQ - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AEM - Jul 30 201420140730
  • AXP - Jul 25 201420140725
  • CSGP - Jul 24 201420140724
  • HAIN - Jul 21 201420140721
  • SIL - Jul 18 201420140718
  • TNK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • QLGC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • OSTK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • KOL - Jul 17 201420140717
  • CAS - Jul 17 201420140717
  • Z - Jul 09 201420140709
  • YUM - Jul 09 201420140709
  • YELP - Jul 09 201420140709
  • XOM - Jul 09 201420140709
  • WFC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • TAN - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SYNA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SUSS - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SSI - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SPB - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SNDK - Jul 09 201420140709
  • RAD - Jul 09 201420140709
  • PRAA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • PAA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • ORLY - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NTRS - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NFLX - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MU - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MRK - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MIC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MFC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • LUV - Jul 09 201420140709
  • LL - Jul 09 201420140709
  • HON - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GTAT - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GRA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • FCH - Jul 09 201420140709
  • AVGO - Jul 09 201420140709
  • ABG - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NLY - Jul 03 201420140703
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • GPL - Jun 23 201420140623
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • GOOG - May 27 201420140527
  • ODP - May 20 201420140520
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • VPRT - Apr 30 201420140430
  • POWI - Apr 30 201420140430
  • HIMX - Apr 30 201420140430
  • P - Apr 28 201420140428
  • QIHU - Apr 07 201420140407
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • SIRI - Mar 25 201420140325
  • GIS - Mar 25 201420140325
  • ETFC - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CVS - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CMG - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CBOE - Mar 25 201420140325
  • AMTD - Mar 25 201420140325
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • ZNGA - Mar 20 201420140320
  • WLT - Mar 20 201420140320
  • TOPS - Mar 20 201420140320
  • NRP - Mar 20 201420140320
  • CLF - Mar 20 201420140320
  • BTU - Mar 20 201420140320
  • SINA - Mar 06 201420140306
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214
  • SBUX - Feb 04 201420140204
  • CME - Feb 04 201420140204
  • F - Feb 03 201420140203
  • SPLK - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HTZ - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HLF - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HIG - Jan 21 201420140121
  • FB - Jan 21 201420140121
  • CYH - Jan 21 201420140121
  • BBY - Jan 16 201420140116
  • CSIQ - Jan 10 201420140110
  • YZC - Jan 06 201420140106
  • RNO - Jan 03 201420140103
  • GCAP - Jan 03 201420140103


Completed Trades

Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.

Aug 292014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) is starting to move above this recent basing pattern (shaded area), which bodes well for the longer-term bullish case. Also note that I have added a new final target, T5 at 33.90. This new final target lies slightly below the large gap & horizontal resistance level on this 10-year weekly chart.     click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of NEM

 

Aug 222014
 
VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

VHI 2-day Aug 22nd

The VHI (Valhi Inc) long trade has now hit the second price target, T2 at 7.72, for a gain of 40.4%. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops, depending on your trading plan. As mentioned earlier, this recent move higher has been confirmed on volume with this most recent sharp move on increased volume actually starting the day before this bullish article from Zachs Equity Research was published. T4 remains the final target for now but again, consider at least raising stops to protect profits if holding out for T3 and/or T4. Longer-term traders might consider a stop below the lows put in earlier this month while more active traders might prefer more aggressive stops.

This 4-year, 2-day period chart shows the track record on VHI with 3 out of the 4 trades (including this one) being successful and all three producing gains well into the double-digits. The first short trade in early 2012 hit the 3rd & final target for a 41.3% gain in less than 3 months and reversed sharply upon reaching the final target level. The second & last trade on VHI, also a short trade, was initiated in early 2013 and hit the second target (T2) for a 19.7% gain and continued to fall about a third of the way to T3 before reversing.  In late May, VHI was added as a speculative/aggressive long trade which was stopped out in June. VHI was once again added as an aggressive long entry on the breakout above 5.50 in late June and still looks promising from a longer-term perspective although the stock is quite overbought at this time.

Aug 222014
 

After falling mere pennies shy of T2 back on July 7th, VHI is once again making a run at that resistance/target level, coming within 4 cents of T2 earlier today while trading volumes have been increasing lately (a bullish sign). A solid break and close above T2 would open the door for a move to the 3rd & possibly the 4th & final target soon.

There really aren’t many new developments to report on the markets or with the Long Trade ideas other than the fact that I plan to move to the PWE long trade to the Completed Trades category as it had exceeded its previously suggested stop (both a solid move & close below 7.40) the day after the last update on Aug 4th. All trade ideas, winners or losers, are updated when removed for archiving purposes but I need to post the PWE trade removal under a separately tagged post for categorical purposes (email notifications will not be sent as that will be an administrative & not a time-sensitive post). There are also several Active Short Trades that I plan to remove as they have either exceeded a suggested stop or no longer look compelling from an R/R perspective. Those closed trades will be sent out in a single post with any relevant notes on the individual trades & an email notification will be sent when posted.

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

GLD 4 hour Aug 22nd

Other than the trade updates, I’m still watching GLD closely and so far, so good as GLD has found support just above the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern & the horizontal support zone posted on the 4-hour chart yesterday. My expectation remains that the near-term downtrend in gold prices will reverse soon with a resumption of the intermediate-term uptrend but we’ll most likely have to wait until next week to see if that is the case. As mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, my primary focus & positioning at this time is long gold & the mining sector in anticipation for the next major leg up (although I will start taking defensive measures/reducing my holdings should gold prices break the aforementioned support levels). Although I’m also positioned long with several other individual stocks and ETF, such as select commodity related ETFs,  my overall positioning remains net short with a overweight on the regional bank sector & select financial stocks but as also mentioned in last Thursday’s market update, I do not plan to any more short exposure until/unless prices move back below the upper-most resistance levels (now support) covered in that post. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions regarding any of the Active Trades or Setups listed on the site at this time.

Aug 192014
 
ANR daily Aug 19th

ANR daily Aug 19th

ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) has reached the first profit target, T1 at 4.08, for a 13.3% profit. ANR was added directly as an Active Long Trade just over a week ago and has moved up sharply since, allowing the opportunity to either book quick profits here (full or partial) or raise stops to protect profits, for those holding out for the next target. T2 (4.70) remains the final target at this time although additional targets may be added to the ANR trade depending on how the coal stocks trade going forward (see Thurday’s post on ANR for the notes & charts of the coal sector).

I just completed a comprehensive video that covers my three main themes for 2014 & likely heading into 2015 including the gold & silver mining sector, an overview of the US equity markets, and select commodities including the agricultural and the coal sector. The video is currently being processed & uploaded and should be published within the next 30 minutes although I also have a technician en route to repair some issues with my internet connection that could take me off-line for a while today in which case the video will be posted later this afternoon.

FYI- In addition to ANR hitting the first target today, another coal stock trade setup, ACI (Arch Coal) has triggered an entry today. Click here to view the previous notes & live chart on ACI.

Aug 122014
 
KATE daily Aug 12th

KATE daily Aug 12th

My apologies for the late update to anyone in the KATE (Kate Spade & Company) Active Short Trade. KATE was posted as a short trade idea on July 29th with an entry to be taken at the open on July 30th, which occurred at a price of 38.91. At the time I had noted that KATE was scheduled to report earnings on Aug 14th although either the source of that information (Nasdaq.com) was wrong or KATE moved up their earnings release and conference call to before the open today. However, that is not what I wanted to apologize about because either one took the trade on July 30th, knowing that it would be an “earnings play” (meaning that you’d almost certainly have to hold it thru earnings in order to hit one or both profit targets due to the close proximity of entry to the scheduled earnings date), or passed, not wanting to risk a positive reaction to KATE’s earnings & guidance trumping the bearish technicals on the stock.

What I regret is not updating this trade earlier today when I noticed the large price swings following the open. I had received an email from someone mentioning KATE this morning mentioning the fact that it had exceeded my suggested stop of 41.10.  With the stock coincidentally opening exactly at 41.10 today & then moving higher immediately thereafter I figured that the trade exceeded the suggested stop and that I would post that it was stopped out and remove it from the Active Trades category with the next batch of stopped out trades as soon as I got around to updating the stopped out or otherwise removed trades.

In hindsight I should have referenced my notes at the time and posted an update to the KATE trade earlier today. In this original/previous post on KATE, I had stated that 41.10 could be used as a relatively tight stop but that suggested stops, namely the suggested stop for my previously stated preferred target of T2 at 27.55, would follow. Using the typically R/R of 3:1, an idea stop area based on the entry price of 38.91 and the preferred price target of 27.55 would be 42.70. KATE peaked at a high of 42.87 shortly after the open as soon as the initial order imbalances were absorbed, still within the margin of error for a 3:1 R/R, especially considering the post-opening ordering imbalances that took the stock there.

In the past I have often mentioned my preferred strategy when caught on the wrong side of a gap and KATE was one of those times where that strategy worked today. By waiting for the initial surge of buying & short-covering to subside, this trade went from a potential loss to hit & even well exceed the first profit target today. Again, had I bothered to check my notes, I would have posted this earlier today vs. after the close as I’m catching up on things.

One final note for those still short KATE; I have revised T2 from 27.55 to 27.65 (10 cents higher) as the stock is now very oversold in the near-term and as such, the odds of a reversal before the actually support level (around 27.43) are increased substantially, especially if the stock continues to fall this week.     click here to view the live, annotated chart of KATE

Aug 062014
 
LYV daily Aug 6th

LYV daily Aug 6th

LYV (Live Nation Entertainment) was posted as a Short Setup on July 29 & went on to trigger an entry on a solid break below the uptrend line two days later on July 31st. The stock gapped down the next trading session to hit the first target of 21.62 for a gain of 8.0%. As expected, the stock has experienced a reaction by pausing or consolidating around the T1 level since then and has started moving lower today. T2 at 20.14 is my current preferred target for this trade and with prices starting to move below that first target level today, I do think LVY has a good shot of getting there soon.

Looking at the chart I would expect a decent reaction off the T2 level, especially if we get there soon. At this point consider one of two stop options: A more conservative stop just above the bottom of Friday’s gap, around 22.40 or a more liberal stop above the top of the gap, around 23.20. The latter, more liberal stop would only make sense for those that took the entire position on the initial trendline break as that would assure at least a breakeven on the trade but a loss for anyone who waited until after the earnings induced gap to initiate a position.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of LYV

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