• CSGP - Jul 24 201420140724
  • VHI - Jul 22 201420140722
  • HAIN - Jul 21 201420140721
  • SIL - Jul 18 201420140718
  • GDX - Jul 18 201420140718
  • TNK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • QLGC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • OSTK - Jul 17 201420140717
  • KOL - Jul 17 201420140717
  • CAS - Jul 17 201420140717
  • SLV - Jul 10 201420140710
  • $SILVER - Jul 10 201420140710
  • $GOLD - Jul 10 201420140710
  • GLD - Jul 10 201420140710
  • EGO - Jul 10 201420140710
  • Z - Jul 09 201420140709
  • YUM - Jul 09 201420140709
  • YELP - Jul 09 201420140709
  • XOM - Jul 09 201420140709
  • WFC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • TAN - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SYNA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SUSS - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SSRI - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SSI - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SPB - Jul 09 201420140709
  • SNDK - Jul 09 201420140709
  • RAD - Jul 09 201420140709
  • PRAA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • PAA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • ORLY - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NTRS - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NFLX - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MU - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MRK - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MIC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • MFC - Jul 09 201420140709
  • LUV - Jul 09 201420140709
  • LL - Jul 09 201420140709
  • HON - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GTAT - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GRA - Jul 09 201420140709
  • GMCR - Jul 09 201420140709
  • FCH - Jul 09 201420140709
  • AVGO - Jul 09 201420140709
  • ABG - Jul 09 201420140709
  • NLY - Jul 03 201420140703
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • GPL - Jun 23 201420140623
  • KGC - Jun 13 201420140613
  • HMY - Jun 13 201420140613
  • HL - Jun 13 201420140613
  • AUY - Jun 13 201420140613
  • ALIAF - Jun 13 201420140613
  • AUQ - Jun 11 201420140611
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • GOOG - May 27 201420140527
  • ODP - May 20 201420140520
  • TRX - May 16 201420140516
  • NEM - May 16 201420140516
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • VPRT - Apr 30 201420140430
  • POWI - Apr 30 201420140430
  • HIMX - Apr 30 201420140430
  • P - Apr 28 201420140428
  • QIHU - Apr 07 201420140407
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • SIRI - Mar 25 201420140325
  • GIS - Mar 25 201420140325
  • ETFC - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CVS - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CMG - Mar 25 201420140325
  • CBOE - Mar 25 201420140325
  • AMTD - Mar 25 201420140325
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • ZNGA - Mar 20 201420140320
  • WLT - Mar 20 201420140320
  • TOPS - Mar 20 201420140320
  • PAAS - Mar 20 201420140320
  • NRP - Mar 20 201420140320
  • CLF - Mar 20 201420140320
  • BTU - Mar 20 201420140320
  • ANR - Mar 20 201420140320
  • AEM - Mar 18 201420140318
  • SINA - Mar 06 201420140306
  • ANV - Mar 05 201420140305
  • ANH - Mar 03 201420140303
  • JO - Feb 24 201420140224
  • $COFFEE - Feb 24 201420140224
  • NMO - Feb 18 201420140218
  • JPI - Feb 18 201420140218
  • FFC - Feb 18 201420140218
  • AGNC - Feb 14 201420140214
  • SBUX - Feb 04 201420140204
  • CME - Feb 04 201420140204
  • F - Feb 03 201420140203
  • SPLK - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HTZ - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HLF - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HIG - Jan 21 201420140121
  • FB - Jan 21 201420140121
  • CYH - Jan 21 201420140121
  • BBY - Jan 16 201420140116
  • CSIQ - Jan 10 201420140110
  • YZC - Jan 06 201420140106
  • RNO - Jan 03 201420140103
  • GCAP - Jan 03 201420140103


Completed Trades

Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.

Jul 242014
 

The CSGP (Costar Group) short trade has been stopped out today, exceeding the previously suggested stop of 153.85 shortly after the open following an earnings induced gap. As mentioned recently, each trader must decided whether on not to hold or close a position before they report their quarterly earning results. A link to the Briefing.com Earnings Calendar is available under the Tools of the Trade area on the right side of the home page.

Gaps are unavoidable events with any type of trading other than day trading (where all positions are closed out by the end of each day).  Sometimes they go they way of your trade, sometimes against you.  My preference on any gap that goes against a short position is to wait until the order imbalances at the open moderate and then place a stop just above the peak high in the stock.  Sometimes the stock will power higher after the initial thrust, taking out your stop, but very often the opening gap proves to be an over-reaction with the stock moving lower afterwards.  Essentially a trader has two choices when caught on the wrong side of a gap:  1) Immediately close the position, thereby guaranteeing a loss or large give-back of any imbedded gains or 2) Set a stop above the initial reaction high, which will result in either a slightly larger loss (or give-back) or the gap is faded and the trade continues to play out, allowing for a better exit price and in some cases, the original profit target to be hit.

In the case of CSGP, the stock gapped to open at 148.08, below the suggested stop of 153.85, but quickly moved higher, exceeding the stop within the first minute of trading. The opening order imbalances continued to push the stock sharply higher for the first 20 minutes of trading until peaking at 165.83 before falling back nearly 9 points. Therefore, a trader that did not have a standing GTC stop-loss order that was taken out around 153.85 today & still happens to be short this one might consider a stop just above this morning’s peak reaction high of 165.83. However, as the 153.85 level was taken out shortly after the open, CSGP will now be moved from the Active Trades category to the Completed Trades category as a stopped out trade.

Jul 222014
 

The VHI (Valhi Inc) Active Long Trade appears to be breaking out of a bull flag continuation pattern today. VHI triggered a long entry on a break above the 5.50 resistance level on June 25th & is currently trading about 28% above that level after gaining about 40% before pulling back. That pullback, which was greatly needed in order to work off the extreme near-term overbought conditions, resulted in prices moving gradually lower on diminishing volume, which is what you want to see during a pullback or consolidation within a bullish trend. That pullback formed what appears to be a bull flag continuation pattern and today prices have broken above the pattern and have been building on those gains so far. The previous & updated 60 minute charts are posted below but the official profit targets remain as previous posted on the daily chart (click the VHI symbol tag at the bottom of this post to view all prior notes & charts on this trade).

I will say that I would prefer to see a considerable expansion of volume on the breakout of this pattern which so far, is not the case. However, price action comes first in my book, volume second, so for now I’m watching to see if VHI can take out the recent highs of 7.63 put in a place about two weeks ago. Such a move, especially if we start to see an increase in volume as the stock rises, would increase the odds of VHI moving up to at least the 8.10 resistance area, if not all the way to the 10.20ish area, which is about where the bull flag pattern projects to. As stated earlier, this is an very aggressive trade so as always, DYODD and consider adjusting position sizing to account for the above average risk & return potential.

Jul 172014
 

The trade ideas on Right Side of the Chart are typically updated when each profit target is hit or as soon as possible shortly thereafter. This is due to the fact that all trade ideas shared here have one or more explicit profit target levels. Trade ideas that are removed from the Active Trades category, whether or not one or more profit targets were already hit, are typically moved to the Completed Trades category for one of several reasons: Either they have exceeded the maximum suggested stop level, if one was provided; The trade has exceeded any reasonable stop level, if none suggested; The technical outlook for the trade and/or the broad market has changed enough to book profits on the trade before the planned target is reached; or the trade simply no longer looks compelling from a risk/reward perspective and is removed to make room for more attractive trade ideas.

As stop parameters, risk tolerances, holding periods & trading styles vary widely amongst individual traders, many of the stopped out trades or those yet to be stopped out but stuck in a trading range are removed together in bulk from time to time. Remember, all profit targets and suggested stops, if any listed, are simply suggestions based on my own personal trading style and preference of using a R/R (risk-to-reward ratio) of 3:1 or better on each trade (i.e.- accept $1 of downside risk for every $3 of upside profit potential). Some traders might opt for an even lower R/R, say 2:1, while other might only take a trade using a 4:1 or better R/R. Every trader must decide not only which trades to take but also which profit target(s) to aim for as well as which stop-loss parameters to use for each trade.

In reviewing the Long Trade Ideas category tonight, the following trades will now be considered completed as they have either exceeded their previously suggested Continue reading »

Jul 162014
 
CSGP daily July 16th

CSGP daily July 16th

CSGP (Costar Group Inc) offers an objective short entry on this break below the intersecting uptrend line & 146ish horizontal support level.

T1 at 117.08 is currently the sole target with a suggested stop over 153.85 (based on a 3:1 R/R). A second target at 86.50 may be added depending on how this trade & the broad market play out going forward.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of CSGP

Jul 102014
 
EGO stock chart

EGO Third Price Target Hit

The EGO (Eldorado Gold) Long-Term Trade idea hit the third profit target (T3) yesterday, as well as today, for a 36% gain from entry. As discussed in the mining sector video posted earlier today, the odds for a pullback in the mining stocks are quite elevated at this time and that holds true for EGO as well.

Not only are reactions off the price target levels typical in general but EGO is also coming off overbought levels (on the daily RSI) not seen since the stock peaked in Sept 2012 as highlighted on the left of this updated daily chart. I don’t expect anything remotely close to the 46% plunge in the stock that immediately followed that previous similar overbought condition, as that one had occurred during the early stages of the recent bear market in the mining sector whereas this time around, the stock is most likely in the early stages of a new bull market.

I’ve also added an very steep uptrend line on which prices current sit precariously on top of. Any solid break or daily close below that trendline would likely spark a correction which could provide another objective entry in the near future.  T5 remains the final long-term target at this time but again, the odds of at least a decent correction before EGO gets there is quite elevated at this time. Additional details on this trade, including the longer-term bullish case, can be viewed in the Gold & Silver Trade Ideas video posted on June 13th.

Click here to view the live, annotated chart of EGO.

Jul 102014
 

CAS (A.M. Castle & Company) is currently backtesting the falling wedge pattern as well as horizontal support, once again offering an objective entry or add-on. Stops remain on any move below 10.80 & targets remain as previously posted (see 120 minute chart). With the broad markets sucking wind lately, this trade may very well go on to be stopped out soon. However, I just wanted to update the trade as if CAS does happen to reverse off this daily horizontal support level & the backtest of the wedge pattern, any new entry or add-on here (CAS is trading at 10.90 as I type), offers a R/R ratio of nearly 11:1 to the first target (obviously an even better R/R to the 2nd & 3rd targets). Again, this trade may very well be stopped out soon or even by the time that you read this but from a pure risk/reward perspective, aggressive traders could take a shot at a long here with minimal downside & considerable upside. Updated daily & 120 minute charts below.

Jul 092014
 

The following trade ideas have been removed from the Active Short Trades categories as they have either exceeded their previous suggested stops (or any reasonable stop, if none suggested) or the stock simply no longer looks to offer an attractive R/R at this time. Some of these trades may have already hit one or more profit targets while others did not. Most trade ideas on RSOTC are immediately removed from the Active Trades category upon reaching the final profit target while trades which are stopped out or no longer look attractive are often removed periodically in bulk. Inquires on Active Trade ideas that have not been recently updated my be requested via the Contact page, located under the Resources section of the menu at the top of the website.


ABG: Hit the first profit target on Jan 27th for a 9.7%, consolidated for a few days & began moving lower before reversing about half way to the second target, exceeding both the entry level as well as any reasonable stop.

AVGO: Hit the first target (T1) for an 8.3% gain in just 8 trading sessions before bouncing & exceeding the suggested stop level for those targeting T2.

FCH: I jumped the gun on this one, posting an entry on the slightest intraday break below the uptrend line, with prices quickly reversing that day and never looking back. i.e.- A false breakdown or pre-mature entry. I’ve re-adjusted the trendline since & have FCH on my radar for a new short entry soon as the stock is in what appears to be the terminal stages of Continue reading »

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