Completed Trades

Completed Trades are trade ideas that have hit one or more of their price targets. Many trade ideas will list multiple targets as some traders might choose to hold some or all of the position for an additional target(s) after the initial target is hit. Therefore, many trade ideas on this site will often appear in both the “Active” and “Completed” categories simultaneously. Trades are removed from the Active Trades Category either upon hitting the final target or if stopped out before then. Once removed from the Active Trades category, these trades and all associated posts will be archived indefinitely in the Completed Trades category for future reference.

Apr 112014
 

When trading individual stocks (usually my preference over trading the broad market such as SPY, ES mini-futures, etc..), I will typically align or modify my profit targets with the broad market. For example, I’ll use the EVR Active Short Trade as an actual example.  EVR was posted as a short entry at a price of 54.89 on April 3rd, listing two profit targets on the trade (T1 & T2). Although T2 remains my final swing target at this time, I have decided to book full profits on my EVR short at a price slightly above my first target of 48.75.  EVR hit a low of 48.79, just 4 cents above my target but being that the $NDX/QQQ, which I consider the leading index at this time and as such, I am putting a heavier weighting into my analysis than the $SPX/SPY, has hit my final near-term (60-120 minute) and first daily targets and as such, is likely to bounce, I have opted to reduce my overall short exposure.  In doing so, I look for my existing trades that have hit or are near a price target and then make a determination on whether to book partial or even full profits or to let the position continue to ride.

That decision is based on various factors including the technical posture of each position but a big weighting in my decision is what my expectations for the broad markets are. As stated earlier, the odds for a meaningful bounce are elevated at this time and as such, if a position, such as EVR has not yet hit the price target that I was focusing on when I entered the trade but is close enough, I may opt to book profits a little early as a bounce in the broad markets, i.e., a rising tide, is likely to lift all ships.  Even if my take on the broad market is wrong and prices continue to fall sharply below current levels, trading is all about weighing the potential risk vs. the potential reward. I’d rather not risk giving back some nice gains by holding out for higher profits with the markets becoming oversold on the near & intermediate-term time frames while at resistance with potential bullish divergences forming. To me, remaining aggressively short here does not offer a very favorable R/R.

EVR daily April 11th

EVR daily April 11th

On a final note, as the possibility that the markets do manage to slice through support and continue to move toward my additional downside targets, I have opted to place relatively tight trailing stop loss orders on many of my other short positions (vs. closing out the trades). The advantage of relatively tight trailing stops is that it allows you to “let your winners run” while also helping to lock in most of your profits, should the trade start moving against you.

Again, the decision to book profits or let a trade ride with stops in place is dependent on various factors such as my preferred target and the individual charts of each position. The most important thing when trading is to have a plan in place. This holds especially true when shorting as stocks usually fall much faster than they rise. I find that being flexible in your plan as far as booking profits earlier or even extending your price targets, depending on how the bigger picture (broad markets) is developing. The markets (charts) are dynamic, not static, and as such, a trader must constantly review & revise his/her game plan.

Apr 082014
 

I received a couple of questions regarding the previously posted potential bear flag/bearish pennant formation on GDX and figured that they were worth passing along.

Q1:  I see the pattern you mentioned in your post. However, can it possibly be an ascending triangle (spanning over the last 10 days) with a target of $26 ? I am new to technical analysis and would appreciate if you could point out the flaw in my view.

A:  Yes, GDX could also be in the latter stages of an ascending triangle pattern if one were to use that 24.75 horizontal resistance line as the upper boundary of the pattern. However, ascending triangle patterns are typically bullish continuation patterns meaning that the pattern is formed immediately following a distinct uptrend. I will say, though, that I have seen both ascending & descending triangle patterns (the latter being a bearish continuation pattern) break in the opposite direction and when this happens, it often leads to a pretty powerful move. Maybe that’s because the majority of traders watching the pattern were caught off guard while positioned for a break in the expected direction (continuation of the prior trend).

Q2: Also did you actually mean $23.50 area target instead of $20.50 as mentioned in your post.

A: No. As ugly as that sounds, the measured target for the bearish pennant/flag pattern posted earlier would be around 20.00-20.50. To determine the target on a bearish pennant or bear flag pattern (both similar patterns & both are also continuation patterns) you simply take the distance of the flagpole and subtract it from the top of the last tag of the uppermost trendline. Keep in mind that there’s no need to pull out your calculator. I usually just draw a trendline marking the flagpole, then drag that trendline and place it on the correct point of the flag or pennant. In fact, the chart that I posted earlier & the one below are using log scaling. To get a more accurate pattern projection when using the trendline drap & drop method, arithmetic scaling is more accurate (giving a measure target of 20.00 on GDX right now, assuming that prices don’t move any higher within the pattern).  After identifying the measured target of the pattern, I like to align that “rough” target with the nearest horizontal support (or resistance) level and/or any key Fibonacci retracement levels to zero in on my own preferred target (which I have not done yet & only plan to do if & when the pattern breaks to the downside).

One a final note, the reason that I reduced exposure to the mining sector on the gap up today was exactly because of the conflicting or ambiguous technical posture of GDX at this time. If I can’t make a solid case to be long or short a position, then it’s only prudent to book some of all of the profits on that trade. I’d rather give it a couple of days to see how this current consolidation on the mining sector resolves itself and not risk getting caught on the wrong side of a sudden breakout from this trading range.

GDX bear flag scenario April 8th

GDX bear flag scenario April 8th

GDX ascending triangle scenario April 8th

GDX ascending triangle scenario April 8th

 

Apr 082014
 

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) is indicated to gap back up to 24.75 resistance level which is also the top of this potential bearish pennant pattern. The 24.75 level is the first near-term target listed on the prior string of 15 minute charts.  If GDX can make a solid & sustained break above the 24.75 level, there is a thin zone up to the next near-term target of 25.20ish that is likely to be filled. However, should GDX once again turn down from this resistance level, as with the two recent failed attempts to take it out, that could send prices back down to the bottom of the bearish pennant. Should GDX break down from the pennant, the measure move on the pattern projects to around the 20.50 area. Personally, I plan to reduce exposure to the miners on the opening gap but may add back exposure should GDX make a solid break above the 24.75 level.

GDX 60 minute April 8th

GDX 60 minute April 8th

GDX 15 minute April 8th

GDX 15 minute April 8th

 

Apr 072014
 

In order to make room for a slew of new trade ideas that I’ve found over the weekend, I’m working on the long overdue task of updating the Active Short Trade ideas. As a tool for referencing past trades as well as tracking performance, all trade ideas are updated when they are moved from the Active Trades category to the Completed Trades category (either stopped out or upon reaching the final price target). In doing so, I noticed that the QIHU short has not been updated since the first profit target was hit back in 2013.

After hitting T1 for a quick 4.5% gain shortly after entry, QIHU slowly worked its way down to my second & preferred target of 74.10 for a 13.7% gain from entry. From there, as expected, the stock bounced but continued to climb, exceeding any reasonable stop and should have been moved to the completed trades category. For future reference, the previous & updated 60 minute & 4 hour charts on this trade are shown below.

Apr 072014
 

The LNKD (LinkedIn Corp) short trade has hit the third profit target, T3 at 166.30, for a 26.5% gain from entry. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering your stops, depending on your trading plan. T4 at 127.20 remains the final target at this time although the odds of a near-term reaction (bounce or consolidation) around the T3 level are elevated at this time. Previous & updated daily charts below:

Apr 012014
 

I took the day off yesterday and will be out of the office most of today but just wanted to post an update on GDX (Gold Miners ETF). As per the update posted on Wednesday of last week, my alternative scenario still has GDX making one final thrust lower to kiss the 23.00 horizontal support level + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. My primary scenario still has GDX bottoming on Thursday and moving higher from there.

So far, yesterday’s move lower in the mining stocks closed to print a higher low in the sector so there’s a good chance that today will either see prices drop below last week’s low of 23.27 (and likely bring prices down to the 23.00 area) or the GDX starts moving higher in an attempt to take out Friday’s reaction high of 24.35, which would be bullish and likely propel prices towards the first near-term target of 24.70.  I still give only slight odds to my primary scenario & as such, continue to scale into the mining stock as this point vs. a full position.  Updated 15 minute & 60 minute charts below.

GDX 15 minute April 1st

GDX 15 minute April 1st

 

GDX 60 minute April 1st

GDX 60 minute April 1st

Mar 282014
 

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) has broken above the downtrend line/bullish falling wedge pattern shown on the previously posted 15 minute chart. The updated 15 minute chart is posted below along with 3 potential near-term targets, for those only looking for a potential quick trade on the mining sector.

GDX 15 minute March 28th

GDX 15 minute March 28th

Mar 272014
 

SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF) is offering an objective long entry or add-on to an existing position as it backtest the primary downtrend line. SIL was one of the top picks in the mining sector added to the Live Chart page in December while the sector was bottoming. SIL went on to hit both the first target (downtrend line) and then hit and far exceeded the second target (T2) before reversing just shy of T3 (15.43). SIL has almost reached the 61.8% retracement of the strong run from the Dec lows to the Feb 24th high, which is near the lower-end of a healthy retracement for what could prove to be the initial leg of a new bull market (which of course, is still yet TBD but remains my preferred scenario at this time).  As such, a long entry or add-on around current levels with the appropriate stops below looks to offer an attractive R/R for swing traders and longer-term investors targeting T3 or T4.

Click here to view the live chart of SIL (silver miners ETF)

Click here to view the live chart of $SIVLER (spot silver prices)

SIL daily March 27th

SIL daily March 27th,

Mar 262014
 

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp.) is one of the trade ideas that was added to the Live Charts page on Dec 31st as one of my top picks in the gold & silver mining sector for 2014. From there, NEM went on to hit the first profit target (T1, which was the top of the wedge pattern) about 3 weeks later, then made one final thrust back to the bottom of the pattern before finally breaking out and going on to hit the second target (T2) on March 17th. From there prices immediately reversed and have now come back to test the pattern from above. This backtest provides an objective re-entry into NEM for those who booked partial or full profits at T2 as well as an objective new long entry for those looking to add some exposure to the sector.

NEM daily March 26th

NEM daily March 26th

When trading the sector, I find it imperative to adjust my position sizing lower that usual in order to allow for the larger than normal stops that are required to successfully trade such a volatile group of stocks as the gold & silver miners. As always, risk & reward go hand-in-hand and this increased volatility and above average loss potential is made up for with above average gain potential. I often use a “shotgun” approach to the sector by diversifying my exposure amongst the individual mining stocks with the most attractive chart patterns although trading GDX (Gold Miners ETF), GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF) & SIL (Silver Miners ETF) certainly make sense for those preferring simplicity or seeking to mitigate volatility in their portfolio via the diversification offered by ETFs.

s2Member®